Sean Payton on Why Drafting Bo Nix Was the Right Call When the Denver Broncos selected Bo Nix in the first round of the 2024 NFL Draft a lot of people were surprised. Trey Wingo was surprised. The consensus was surprised. Six quarterbacks went in the first twelve picks that year and Bo Nix was not the one most people had circled as the franchise-defining choice for Denver. Sean Payton was not surprised at all. Three years later Payton sits down with Trey and gives the most detailed and honest explanation of the Bo Nix decision that has ever been made public. The analytics. The arm. The reps. The intangibles. The draft room moment when it came back Nix Nix Nix from coaches who have worked with Payton for years. And the conversation with owner Greg Penner where Payton said — let's not worry about winning draft day. Let's worry about three years from now. Three years from now is now. And Payton's answer when asked if Denver will be happy about this vision and this player is two words. Definitely yes. Here is exactly how Denver got there. The Analytics — What the Numbers Actually Said The first thing Denver did when evaluating the 2024 quarterback class was remove the quick throws from the statistics. Strip out the easy completions that inflate accuracy numbers in certain systems. What is left when you do that is the real picture of how a quarterback performs under pressure — third downs, fourth quarters, second half comebacks, red zone, and sack percentage. Bo Nix was the most accurate passer in college football history. Not one of the most accurate. The most accurate. And when Payton's staff looked at his negative play differential — turnovers, fumbles, interceptions, sacks per play combined — the number was historically rare. Going back twenty-five years of data the instances of a quarterback coming out of college with that profile were extraordinarily limited. The numbers were saying yes before the eye test even started. The Arm — A Plus Not a Neutral Then Denver got to campus. And the arm changed the conversation. Payton is direct about this. Bo Nix's arm strength is a plus. Not a neutral. Not acceptable. A genuine plus. The ball speed and velocity down the field are exceptional. In a draft class where several quarterbacks were operating in systems that threw underneath and created an artificial perception of what they could do at the next level Nix's profile was different. The throws he was asked to make demanded arm talent. He had it. The Reps — Why College Football Volume Matters Nobody played more college football than Bo Nix. Trey makes the point and Payton builds on it. Bill Parcells always wanted to know about reps. When it was south of two years of significant starting experience he had questions. The transfer portal and early entry have changed some of the math but the principle remains — you want to know who is starting ahead of a guy if he is not playing. And you want to know how many times he has been in pressure situations before he gets to the NFL. Bo Nix had been in more of those situations than almost anyone in recent memory. The maturity process at quarterback is real. CJ Stroud looked like a franchise player in year one and Bryce Young looked like a disaster. Now the picture is more complicated for both. Jaden Daniels played a lot of college football. Sam Darnold just won a championship on his fourth team. Baker Mayfield established himself. The lesson Payton keeps coming back to is that the evaluation process takes time and the players with the most reps tend to be more ready than anyone expects. The Intangibles — Son of a Coach Bo Nix is the son of a football coach. He grew up understanding the schedule. The workload. The film sessions. What Monday looks like after a game. How you prepare for the week. Payton values that. He has seen it with Drew Brees in the meeting room and what it meant for younger quarterbacks to watch an elite player go through the routine at the highest level. That learning curve is invaluable and Bo Nix arrived with a version of it already built in. The Draft Room — Nix Nix Nix At the end of the process Payton matched his grades with the coaches. Joe Lombardi. Pete Carmichael. Coaches who have been with him for years and who he trusts completely. He was curious whether their evaluation would match his. It came back Nix. Nix. Nix. When you arrive at something independently and the people around you arrive at the same place without being told where to go — that is when you act on it. Denver avoided what Payton calls the NFL bus — the first round consensus machine that moves without anyone actually knowing who is driving it. They did their own work. They trusted their own process. And they made the call. Three Years Later Bo Nix is healthy. He will be a full participant in minicamp by week three. He will be fully ready before June ends. Training camp will have no hiccups. And the Broncos are building around a quarterback that Sean Payton believes has not yet hit his ceiling. Three years after a pick that surprised the league Payton is not hedging. He is not qualifying. He is not saying we hope so or we think so. Definitely yes. Hosted by Simplecast, an AdsWizz company. See https://pcm.adswizz.com for information about our collection and use of personal data for advertising.

Ask this episode

“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.

Transcript

Related