METR and AI Regulation, Zuck Pushes Back on AI Slowdown, Fed Hikes Rates | Diet TBPN
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What is the opening banter and premise for today’s TBPN episode?
Well, we have a fantastic show for you today, folks. I made it to San Francisco and back since the last show. This is a new thing. I like this. Being able to get out from the show, go do something in San Francisco, get back. Very excited.
Why didn't you want to stay?
I don't know. I like doing the show. It's pretty simple. Good to be here in the TVPN Ultradome. We have a great show. We have a bunch of great folks coming on the show. What was on my mind last night? I was listening to China Talk. Jordan Schneider was talking about evaluators, third-party evaluators. And I was noticing this discourse around, it feels like we funneled into like very clear camps super, super quickly. And it feels like, I don't know, too calcified for how fast it happened. Like the Dario essay comes out and, you know, he throws out meter. Says he's bringing in meter and the backlash is like immediate. The New York Post is crashing out saying like these are handpicked AI watchdogs. Martin Casado, Martin Casado over at A16Z, he's pushing for the Department of Energy.
He's like full nationalization now. And, you know, both of those have their advantages, disadvantages. They both do good work. They are the extremes. And so I was just sort of wondering a few things. First, what other regulatory bodies can actually work? How do they work in other industries? It's very interesting because the revolving door is something that's common in financial regulation. You get people that work at banks, and then they go and work at the regulator, and then they go back and forth. I mean, this is the... This is the story of many people in the crypto industry where the regulators who are regulating it, they go back and forth. Like revolving doors exist, but I think the pushback to meter is very much like the door is like too revolving or it's too close, I guess.
But the more interesting question to me is...
Yeah, the defense of meter is that I don't know... many groups that are qualified at all to even understand what's going on at the frontier, right?
Is that true, though? See, that's the thing I disagree with.
I would say that there are not that many groups that have been this invested in understanding frontier model behavior for this long.
It's
just a small group right now.
That's a separate thing. So I think there's two separate things. There's one, which is like super forecasting, seeing the future, predicting what's going to happen. I think that's important. I think taking that seriously is important. But then there's the other side, which is like doing the work, reading the logs and being like, this violated this rule, this hack happened. Here's how it happened. And I think that those are actually two separate disciplines, two separate jobs. And you can just tell The regulator, if it's someone, you don't need to tell, like if you hire someone and they are able to get up to speed on how these systems work and evaluate them and look at logs of different incidents, see what's happening, assess the risk level, assess the liabilities.
you can get those people up to speed and you can just be like, it is your mandate to take this seriously. And the example that I'm pulling from is like, you can be 22 years old, not graduate from college, go into the Navy, enlist in the Navy, not even in the officer training program, and in 18 months you can be responsible for the security of a nuclear power plant on a summer. You do six months in nuclear field A school, about six months of nuclear power school and then six months of hands-on prototype training before arriving in the fleet. Nuclear power school covers math, nuclear physics, reactor principles, health physics, materials, thermodynamics, electrical systems, and reactor technology. There's no part of that that's like, you need to really, at a deep level, understand that nuclear annihilation is bad and could happen.
You don't need to be able to forecast out, well, what happens if China and geopolitics and Iran gets the bomb and then these people and then Pakistan. You don't have to understand that to just know, don't let it blow up.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the opening banter and premise for today’s TBPN episode?
0:01–4:18
2
How does the METR proposal aim to regulate AI and why is it controversial?
4:18–10:15
3
What can we learn from nuclear regulation history for AI oversight?
10:15–17:50
4
Why did the Federal Reserve raise rates and what does it mean for the tech sector?
17:50–22:33
5
How is Mark Zuckerberg pushing back against calls to slow AI development?
22:33–24:59
6
What is the debate around independent evaluators and third‑party auditors for AI models?
24:59–26:37
7
Why is the Kalshi AI compute futures market drawing regulatory attention?
26:37–30:16
8
What are the final takeaways and upcoming topics for the next TBPN show?
30:16–30:27
Speakers
4 identifiedMore from TBPN
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