TechStuff
Polymarket and Kalshi Have a Problem with Nepo Baby Insider Trading - The Story
15 Apr 2026
Transcript generated automatically by AI and may contain errors.
Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Welcome to Tech Stuff. I'm Oz Voloshin, and this is The Story. We've talked a bunch about Polymarket and Kalshi on this podcast, so-called prediction markets. And recently they've had quite a run.
Mystery traders on Polymarket have made big payouts, wagering on events such as strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities last year, the removal of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from power before the end of January this year, and the exact date of the beginning of the aerial war on Iran, February 28th.
Just last week, two senators introduced a bipartisan bill, bluntly called the Prediction Markets Are Gambling Act, that would ban prediction markets from creating contracts around sport.
Our guest today is Catherine Long, an investigative reporter with The Wall Street Journal, who recently wrote a fascinating story about how prediction markets have overtaken college campuses and about the intersection of insider trading, Nepo babies, and frat boys. Welcome, Catherine.
Hey, good to be here.
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Chapter 2: What are Polymarket and Kalshi, and why are they relevant?
You know, I think anybody with a VPN is able to get around that ban. And most people who have a crypto wallet are pretty familiar with how to operate a VPN. So, you know, definitely some debate over whether that is effective at all. Polymarket, I should say, is also launching its own U.S. licensed, U.S. regulated prediction market called Polymarket U.S. that's open for U.S. users.
At the moment, it's still sort of in beta and you can only trade on sports.
And is that a little bit more hardcore in that sense? Because you have to use crypto and you have to use a VPN and stuff. Is there like a difference in the user base? Is Kalshi more like entertainment focused and Polymark is more like hardcore? Or is that kind of a false dichotomy, do you think?
No, I think you're onto something there. I mean, my impression from speaking with users of both platforms is that The barrier to entry to trade on Kalshi is much lower. You're trading with U.S. dollars. I mean, it's easier to get started on Kalshi, and then Polymarket is sort of the home of the quants.
And final question before we get to your story. Both these companies make money by essentially charging a transaction fee on every wager. Do you have any sense of the betting volumes?
Yeah, I mean, they have skyrocketed just over the past year. In fact, I'm going to actually consult a chart so I don't get it wrong, if that's okay.
Please do, please do. Live self-fact-checking.
So we know that the betting volumes are relatively equivalent between the two platforms. We know that in the first few months of this year, Polymark and Kalshi are approaching $10 billion in betting volume each month, especially around the Super Bowl.
Wow. And they're taking like 10 basis points, so we don't know quite what the transaction fees are.
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Chapter 3: How do prediction markets differ from traditional gambling platforms?
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2%. That is the number of people who take the stairs when there is also an escalator available. I'm Michael Easter, and on my podcast, 2%, I break down the science of mental toughness, fitness, and building resilience in our strange modern world.
I'll be speaking with writers, researchers, and other health and fitness experts and more to look past the impractical and way too complex pseudoscience that dominates the wellness industry.
We really believe that seed oils were inherently inflammatory. We got it wrong. Many of the problems that we are freaked out about in the world are the result of stress. Put yourself through some hardships, and you will come out on the other side a happier, more fulfilled, healthier person.
Listen to 2%, that's T-W-O percent, on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.
Run a business and not thinking about podcasting? Think again. More Americans listen to podcasts than ad-supported streaming music from Spotify and Pandora. And as the number one podcaster, iHeart's twice as large as the next two combined. So whatever your customers listen to, they'll hear your message. Plus, only iHeart can extend your message to audiences across broadcast radio.
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