Two wars, no clear exit plan. Now what? | Ian Bremmer
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
You're listening to TED Talks Daily, where we bring you new ideas to spark your curiosity every day. I'm your host, Elise Hugh. Today, we're bringing you another special episode of TED Explains the World with Ian Bremmer. Ian is president and founder of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media. He sits down with Helen Walters, TED's head of media and curation, to discuss the latest on the wars in Iran and Ukraine. All of that and more is coming up right after a short break.
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Hi, I'm Adam Grant, host of the podcast Rethinking, a show where I talk to some of today's greatest thinkers about the unconventional ways they see the world. On Rethinking, you'll get surprising insights from scientists, leaders, artists and more. People like Reese Witherspoon, Malcolm Gladwell and Yo-Yo Ma. Hear lessons to help you find success at work, build better relationships and more. Find Rethinking wherever you get your podcasts.
And now our TED conversation of the day.
Hi, everyone. I'm Helen Walters. I am head of media and curation at TED. Welcome to another edition of TED Explains the World with political scientist Ian Bremmer. Today, we are going to explain the current and future states of the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Ian, as always, thank you so much for being here to help us try to make sense of things.
Hi, Helen. Good to be back with you.
All right. Let's start in Iran, which is now entering its sixth month of conflict with the United States. And in just the last two weeks, we've seen attacks. We've seen counterattacks. None of the major issues between the two nations seem to be coming anywhere close to being resolved. So what is your read of what is going on and what should we actually be paying attention to?
So I guess there are two different components that we need to think about. The first is why it is that the war is still going on, given the clear costs to everyone involved in the United States, around the world and to the Iranians. And the second is, how might we think about the potential for a resolution? So first, why is it happening? Because we had a memorandum of understanding that was signed between the US and the Iranians, and it was only a matter of weeks before that fell apart. The issue here is that President Trump and the Iranian military leadership really fundamentally disagree about how much leverage they each have over the outcome. This is very different from what we saw between Trump and Xi Jinping.
when he hit out really hard on the tariffs and created a functional boycott, and the Chinese hit back with their own tariffs, and then the critical minerals licensing regime. And Trump realized, I do not want to get into a tit-for-tat continued fight with the Chinese. This is going to hurt me too much. I need to back away and I need to ensure stability. The Iranians have hit Trump back pretty hard, hit the Americans back. They've hit them back in blocking the Strait, and they've hit them back in attacking targets across the Gulf, both infrastructure targets and American bases. But the Iranians believe they can continue to do that until they have control over the Strait, until they're given that control by the United States, ceded by the United States, so that they are able to get a lot of money and determine who does and doesn't go through.
President Trump's perspective is, yeah, they may have been able to disrupt the straight, but I can continue to blow these guys up and ultimately they're gonna have to capitulate. So I don't accept that they can continue to wait me out. I need to show them by continuing to hit them harder that they're going to be forced to back away from
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:04–12:09
2
Why is the Iran–US war still ongoing after six months?
12:09–21:14
3
How do Iran and the United States view leverage over the Strait of Hormuz?
21:14–37:32
4
Why are the US and Iran exercising military restraint despite ongoing strikes?
37:32–42:01
Speakers
6 identifiedMore from TED Talks Daily
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