The Best One Yet
🛍️ “Black-vember” — Why Black Friday’s all month. McRib’s strategic impact. H&R Block(ed) by DOGE.
Fri, 22 Nov 2024
McDonald’s just brought back the McRib… because McDonalds needs a superhero right now.Black Friday is in 1 week… we explain why Black Friday’s become Black November.And Elon’s DOGE is targeting free tax filing… good news for everyone except H&R Block.Plus, the hot new beauty trend? Crude oil… Petroleum baths are the next Botox.$MCD $SPY $HRB $INTU🎙️ Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show The Best Idea Yet: The untold origin story of “Levi’s 501s… The World’s 1st Jeans” 👖Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks —-----------------------------------------------------GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Chapter 1: What is the significance of the McRib's return?
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For our first story, McDonald's is bringing back the McRib, and it's even selling a new McRib sauce in a jug to go along with it. But the McRib is way more strategic than you ever realized. It's the most strategic thing we have ever seen. But first, Yetis, last year we told you about the McRib effect. Ah, the McRib effect. Best thing for your mouth, worst thing for pigs. Here's the McRib effect.
When the McRib is on McDonald's menu, stocks in the market rise. It's wild and it's fantastic. The data analyst, Nick Magooly, ran the numbers on this thing. And Jack, what did he discover about the McRib effect? On days that the McRib is available on McDonald's menu, the S&P 500 rises three times more on average than days the McRib is not available. Sit down, stand up, and please more McRibs.
I mean, compound that 3X performance. Yeah. That's night and day difference. Jerry Powell, we know how to boost the economy. It's actually a great example that correlation does not mean causation. Still, Goldman Sachs is probably ordering a million McRibs right now. McRibs for the whole trading floor, baby.
But yet he's, whether you eat the McRib or not, you might notice it's randomly available and it's randomly not available. It's basically been on and off the menu at McDonald's since 1981. It's done farewell tours and it's done dramatic returns. Well, they're doing another dramatic return. Spoiler. As of next week, the McRib is back on the menu at McDonald's.
But this time, the McRib has some company. And that company is McRib's Giant Barbecue Sauce. McDonald's is selling a jug of McRib sauce. For $19.99, you get a half gallon of this special sauce. That's right. You can now wash down your pork patty with a whole pint of sauce. Jack, if you drown in this thing, you drown happy. That's the nice positive. I don't know about that.
But this is the first time that McDonald's has ever sold their secret sauces separately. Yeah. McDonald's, pro tip, sell your special sauce. The Big Mac special sauce. Thank us in the morning. And I would die happy in that case. But Yetis, here's what Jack and I found fascinating about this story. It feels like McDonald's has once again chosen a random time to bring back the McRib.
But when you dive into the data, you discover that the dates that McRib comes back is actually highly strategic. So let's jump in T-boy style. Yetis, according to Sherwood's research, they looked at the last three times McDonald's introduced the McRib. They brought it back in 2017, in 2020, and in 2022. And Jack, what was McDonald's business situation during each of those three McRib moments?
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Chapter 2: Why has Black Friday turned into Black-vember?
If you're H&R Block or TurboTax, you love that your adjusted gross income with a depreciated capture excluding the cost basis on your W-2 is the jargon that nobody understands. They love that it's hard because it makes you have to pay them because you can't do it yourself. Jack and I have said it before, filing taxes, it's the white whale of bureaucratic frustrations.
So a Doge-developed free tax filing app would be awesome for most people, but bad for these two businesses. If you happen to have a simpler income situation, you may just enter your social security number, and then this app would tell you how much you owe or how much of a refund you get. It should be that easy. It should be, yeah. Instead, right now, we kind of play games with the IRS. Like, man,
They know what we owe. We know what you owe. But they won't tell us what we owe. We have to tell them what we think we owe. And Yetis, for at least 60 million people, their income is so simple, it's just like a W-2 income, that they should be able to simply submit their social security number and know how much taxes they owe.
Like we said, a new free tax filing app from the government, that would be awesome for us taxpayers, but it would be bad for TurboTax and H&R Block's business. Both of those companies lost a billion dollars in market cap this week on that news. Like we said, filing taxes. It's the white whale of bureaucratic frustrations. So Jack, what's the takeaway for everyone in the American economy?
Doge could succeed where others have failed. Yetis, the Department of Government Efficiency, Doge, it's new. But the idea of making the government more efficient? That concept is not new. Here's the truth. Just about every president since Ronald Reagan has campaigned on simplifying government, reducing waste, and improving efficiency.
In fact, President Biden's Inflation Reduction Act created the first free online portal to file your taxes. And you know what? 100,000 Americans use that in its first year. But that filing system, developed by the Biden administration, was developed by the IRS and a tech nonprofit.
On the other hand, Doge's app, if it happens, it could feasibly have the best private tech workers in the entire world working on it. Elon is running this department. Not just Elon. Silicon Valley elites like Peter Thiel, Marc Andreessen, and Elon could build a wonderful tax filing app and gift it to the IRS. That could plausibly happen.
So besties, last week we told you how, since there are so many mandatory spending programs in the government, it would be hard for this new Doge commission to figure out how to save money. But it just might have the political will and the tech skills to do what other administrations couldn't. Jack, can you whip up the takeaways for us for the real Friday?
McDonald's brings back the McRib when pork prices are low and when sales are struggling. The McRib, it's not just strategic, it's McDonald's superhero. It's a superhero product. For our second story, it's Black Friday. It's not Black Friday anymore. It's spread across the whole month. Yeah, Black Friday is now Blackvember because companies want to smooth out your orders like clay.
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Chapter 3: What are the strategic reasons behind early holiday sales?
Six million dollar banana. Now, time for the best fact yet. This one sent in by legendary Yeti Tiffany Schmidt over in Ann Arbor, Michigan. Does Thanksgiving feel late this year? I mean, I'm already freezing. It's like dark at 1 p.m., Jack. Yeah, it feels pretty late this year. Thanksgiving is actually falling the latest it ever does. The fourth Thursday of this month is the 28th of the month.
Which is the last possible Thursday that Thanksgiving could ever fall on. The reason? The first of the month was Friday. In fact, Thanksgiving will not be this late in November until the year 2030. That's all I got to say about that. That's all we got to say about that. Yetis, you looked fantastic all week. And for this weekend, Jack and I have arranged the perfect plan for you.
Listen to the best idea yet. Our latest episode is on the untold and wild origin story of Levi's jeans. That's right. Levi's jeans was the first jeans ever, and it's become the best-selling jeans in history. So lean back and listen to our 45-minute deep dive on the wild story of Levi's. Check out The Best Idea Yet. That's our new show. And we've even got a link in the episode description.
That's how excited we are for you to check this thing out. Now enjoy this nine-day weekend. And Nick and I will see you Monday. Jack, enjoy the movie. See you then. And before we go, a happy 10-month anniversary to everyone else born on January 22nd who didn't get acknowledged at the top of the podcast. Wait, did you say half birthday? No, it's my Q4 birthday, Jack. It's my Q4 birthday.
And Emily Tiernan is celebrating a birthday. Congratulations, Emily. Thanks for being a Yeti. Big shout out to Isaiah Alvarez in Hopthorne, California, who listened to T-Boy with his auntie. And Mika Park down the street in San Francisco is competing in her first High Rocks competition this weekend in Dallas with a birthday.
Happy birthday to Georgia Chang in Beijing, China, who introduced T-Boy to her hubby. Celebrate that win. And Alejandro Lopez is turning 39 years old in Bergen, Norway, balancing the budget and the family with a big birthday brunch. Happy birthday to Esther Soojin Kim in Hawaii, who's using her freedom days over in Hawaii. If you know, you know.
And Devin McLaughlin's turning 29 years old over in New York City, El Dev Meister. Happy birthday, man. Happy birthday to Katie Borilski in Denver, Colorado, who's getting fondue with baby Nolan and her husband, Derek. I freaking love fondue. Oh, drop a McRib in there. And Hannah A. is celebrating a birthday in Charlotte, North Carolina, with some cats and some rock climbing.
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Chapter 4: How is consumer demand shaping retail strategies?
And happy birthday to Danny Oliva in Orange, California, who's celebrating with his wife and three kids going to see Wicked to each their own. Apparently, he's not entertained. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. I own stock of Amazon, and Nick and I both own one Bitcoin, whose name is Ben. Sorry, I really threw you under the bus there.
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