The Best One Yet
🫡 “TikTok Refugee” — TikTok’s final countdown. Jack Daniels’ bourbon bust. Anduril’s new language of business.
Fri, 17 Jan 2025
TikTok is scheduled to shut down Sunday morning… but there are still 3 possible outcomes.The Bourbon Bubble just burst, so we have a solution for Jack Daniels… Whiskey World.For the next 4 years, business leaders will speak different… and we see it in Anduril, a drone startup.Plus, Chick-fil-A just built an entire factory of robots with one purpose… Lemonade.$BF $STZ $METAWant more business storytelling from us? Check out the latest episode of our new weekly deepdive show: The untold origin story of… Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups 🥜Subscribe to The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinks to listen.“The Best Idea Yet”: The untold origin stories of the products you’re obsessed with — From the McDonald’s Happy Meal to Birkenstock’s sandal to Nintendo’s Super Mario Brothers to Sriracha. New 45-minute episodes drop weekly.—-----------------------------------------------------Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.GET ON THE POD: Submit a shoutout or fact: https://tboypod.com/shoutouts FOR MORE NICK & JACK: Newsletter: https://tboypod.com/newsletter Connect with Nick: https://www.linkedin.com/in/nicolas-martell/ Connect with Jack: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jack-crivici-kramer/ SOCIALS:Instagram: https://www.instagram.com/tboypod TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@tboypodYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@tboypod Anything else: https://tboypod.com/ Subscribe to our new (2nd) show… The Best Idea Yet: Wondery.fm/TheBestIdeaYetLinksEpisodes drop weekly. It’s The Best Idea Yet.See Privacy Policy at https://art19.com/privacy and California Privacy Notice at https://art19.com/privacy#do-not-sell-my-info.
Chapter 1: What are the possible outcomes of TikTok's shutdown?
I pour a glass of Hill Rock whiskey every Friday afternoon after the show, straight up, and then I send a picture to Jack, a little toast. The picture implies he's about to drink the whole glass. I know you're just having like one sip and then putting the glass down. You know how I roll. For the last decade, there has been a bourbon boom. It's been a lot of fun, honestly.
Sipping whiskey is a luxury flex. Every time I order a bourbon or a whiskey at the bar, I feel way more sophisticated. You grow more hair too. Bourbon. Right, Scotch. Revenues for the whole sector were growing 10% a year. They hit an all-time high in 2022. Old-fashioned. Felt young. In fact, whiskey got so big and so expensive, it became an investment vehicle. Get this.
A rare bottle of Macallan Scotch sold for $4 million at an auction in 2023. Yeah. Forget the 401k. Bourbon was the new Bitcoin, baby. But here's the news. Whiskey sales have fallen in America for two straight years. Yes, they have. It's the first declines for this alcohol category in a generation. Yeah, we've been charting it. The bourbon boom has become a bourbon bubble bust.
And here's the latest news. Brown Foreman, the owner of Jack Daniels, cut 700 jobs this week. Oh, and Jack, what was the quote from his CEO when he made the news? He said, to be honest, it's not really getting a lot better. Maker's mark? Gonna need to make some more marks. So, Yetis, why is the bourbon bust happening right now? It's not just dry January. No, it is not.
In fact, there are so many reasons for the bourbon bust. You're going to want to fix yourself a drink when you hear this story. The first reason, Gen Z is simply the soberest generation in American history. Gen Z drinks 20% less than millennials did, and we drink like 20% less than our parents do. The second reason is Ozempic.
Yeah, Ozempic's got you craving fewer caloric beverages, and that includes that Kraft rye cocktail with a whole bunch of maple syrup. The third reason we're experiencing a bourbon bust is cannabis competition. With the legalization of weed, people are trading drinks for doobies. And finally... Cancer. Yeah. Last week, we told you exactly about this.
The Surgeon General said that alcohol causes cancer and he wants to add warning labels to that bottle of Jack. But the final challenge for the bourbon category is the biggest surprise of all. It's actually Donald Trump. Because American whiskey is going to be a victim of his trade war. And we've seen this before back in 2018. What happened then, Jack?
Donald Trump put tariffs on European goods and the EU retaliated by tariffing American whiskey. Which wasn't good for the entire whiskey industry. Jim Beam just can't catch a break. No, he cannot. But Jack and I, we've got a solution to save the whiskey industry. We're going to help Johnny Walker start running again. So Jack, what's the takeaway for our buddies over in Bourbon?
Whiskey should borrow an idea from Ferrari. Whiskey world. Yetis, there is an interesting arbitrage opportunity that we see here. Sales of bourbon are down, but the bourbon brand is at its highest recognition ever. People are drinking less whiskey, yes, but whiskey recognizably stands for something. Yes, it does. That's the brand.
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Chapter 7: How is language changing in business today?
It's actually just outside Manhattan, Jack, and it used to be part of Manhattan. Wild story there. Just outside Manhattan. And Kubri Yaradilmis in Istanbul, Turkey, is celebrating the best birthday. Happy 36th birthday. Great year, by the way. To Devin Young, an 88er living down in Atlanta, Georgia.
And Andrew Blazer in Woodinville, Washington is celebrating a birthday on two poles, two skis, and three black diamonds. And Cassie Parco down in Phoenix is growing veggies and eating a Romanesco for the birthday. And good luck to Ivy Ayers in Minneapolis, who's got a skating competition in Duluth. And get this, Ivy says that T-Boy is her Taylor Swift.
We've never been compared to Taylor, and we are so proud and thankful for that comparison. Honestly, Ivy, thank you so much for enjoying the show with your whole family. Fantastic to have all the Ayers with us. And finally, a big shout out to Ryan Eberhardt, who wants us to do a live T-Boy show outside of Dallas. An outdoor show.
I love it. He even showed us the space. Okay.
Good walkthrough. Pretty good. Pretty interesting. And to anyone else who's celebrating something today, pour yourself whiskey. I mean, make it a T-Boy. Celebrate the wins. This is Jack. Nick and I both own stock of Apple and we both own a Bitcoin. Say hello to my little friend.
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