The Bill Simmons Podcast
NBA Power Rankings and “Do You Believe?” With Kirk Goldsberry, Plus an Eagles/Steelers Fan Base Report With Chris Ryan and Craig Horlbeck
06 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
The Bill Simmons Podcast brought to you by FanDuel Sportsbook. We're also brought to you by the Ringer Podcast Network, where I put up a new rewatchables on Monday night. We did a mailbag. We started in 2025 with a mailbag. We started 2026 with a mailbag. Got some great questions from a lot of listeners. Came up with a couple of new categories. Argued about movies. Talked about heat a few times.
Heat kept coming up. Turns out people like asking us about heat. I don't know why. Apparently it's a good movie. I've only seen it once or 50 times. Anyway, check that out. We will be coming back with a brand new movie next week.
We were doing what lies beneath, which you can find on Netflix where the rewatchables is going to be officially moving at the end of the month from a video standpoint, but also still available on Spotify and all platforms and available on video on Spotify as well. Don't forget that part, but what lies beneath next week, watch that Netflix, listen to our podcasts on Spotify, Monday.
I also, somehow this has never happened. I've done rewatchables live, but I've never done a live podcast in Los Angeles. So I've done live rewatchables, but not a live Bill Simmons podcast. That all changes on, when is the day?
Chapter 2: What new categories were introduced in the mailbag discussion?
February 11th. Tickets will go on sale on Friday, January 9th, theringer.com slash events. I have no idea who's going to be with me. I know it'll be fun. So you can go check that one out. Coming up on this podcast, Kurt Goldsberry and I are going to do an NBA power poll, go 30 to one, figure out where Michael Porter Jr. should go. Does anyone want Trey Young? What's going on with OKC?
Do we believe in Phoenix and the Celtics? Whole bunch of questions. And then after that, Chris Ryan and Craig Horlbeck, they stuck around after we taped the rewatchables yesterday. And we talked a bunch of NFL stuff. Craig's team, the Steelers, CR's team, the Eagles, my team, the Patriots. What do we believe? Why don't we have playoff fantasy? Whole bunch of things going on. So very fun podcast.
Hope you enjoy it. We're gonna take a break and then Pearl Jam. The Bill Simmons podcast is presented by by FanDuel. FanDuel's got it all. Same game parlays, quick bets for jumping in live. They have your way. Go check out your way. You can build the bet that fits your play, your way. Plus don't miss out on the NFL playoffs. One of my favorite times of the year, all month long.
Download the FanDuel app or head to FanDuel.com slash BS to get started. Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus presidents, select states, 18 plus in DC, Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, Kurt Goldsberry is here. He is going to do a little power poll with me.
We're going to go from 30 to 1. We feel like we can hit a bunch of fun storylines. What's your favorite storyline of the season so far? We're like 36 games in, so what are we at, the 41% mark? I don't know, 42% mark? What's your favorite story?
Well, I'm biased. I have to say my San Antonio Spurs, surprisingly ahead of schedule, Bill. I love the guards, though. I thought this was going to be a Wembley team. I was talking to somebody today. Even without Wemby, the Spurs have one of the best young cores in the league, and that's been my favorite story. I love to watch them more than anything. I just love that team.
Yeah, I agree with you on that.
It's funny. We are always surprised when somebody is ahead of schedule, but ahead of schedule happens over and over again in the history of the NBA. Yeah, you've been good about that. We saw it just happen with OKC. Yeah, it's always like you're always better betting on...
a year and a half, two years ahead versus an older team, like the Clippers this year or something, or the ones that are the dangerous ones.
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Chapter 3: What are the key storylines in the NBA power rankings?
They're going to be the worst team in the league. I think they're fine with it. They'll start shelving guys, scratching guys. And what that does is that locks down a top four pick, which is important because we have Peterson and Boozer and DeBansa. And then I think Caleb Wilson, even if you get four and you end up with Caleb Wilson, it's like, fine, that guy might be a multiple time all NBA guy.
So I think this is one of the weirdest situations in the history of the league where you have a team that was on the cusp of winning a championship and becoming the ultimate sports movie story. Um, And then in the blink of an eye, it's over. Their best player is gone for a year. And now they have a chance to get basically a franchise guy for the next 15 years and be back running in a year.
I don't remember anything like that before.
No, the best comp I have is a very different situation, but it's the Bulls post-Jordan when Tim Floyd came in and it was just, they went from very, very apex of the league to the bottom. But yeah, they're 6-30. I heard Zach Lowe saying yesterday, I didn't think they'd be this bad. I agree with that. They still have so many good players. They have a good coach. 6-30 though, Bill, that's,
That's surprising.
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Chapter 4: How do the Eagles and Steelers fans view their teams' playoff chances?
They're taking the opposite approach as your team. They're obviously just going to get a draft pick and come back at full strength next year. I like that as an executive, and I think they'll be a force to be reckoned with next year. This is just a gap year.
I don't think they had a choice because the way it worked out where they just had injuries coming out of the gate even before the season started and they were just behind the eight ball. And they also don't have anybody as good as Jalen Brown on the Pacers. I mean, 100%. If you have a top six, top seven guy, which is the way Jalen's been playing, it's a lot easier to win games. All right.
So they're 30. Sacramento, I have a 29. They're eight and 28. They're last in net rating now, 11.5. I don't remember if I've talked about them on a pod. We killed them before the season when house and Zach and I did the over under pod and Zach and Zach got as gamey as he's ever gotten. I think just completely eviscerating a team. I don't understand anything this team is doing.
Like the Westbrook thing to me, is the goofiest subplot of the season where you're paying Malik Monk 18 million a year. You're burying him. He's playing either zero minutes a game, six minutes a game. You went and got Schroeder over the summer to be your point guard. You gave up on him basically when the season started, and then you get Russ as an expiring.
It's not like he's helping them win games. They're terrible. All they should be doing is trying to build up the trade value of Schroeder, Monk, some of their other dudes. I don't know what they're doing, Kirk.
It is especially sad, Bill, when you look at it in the context, I was at the NBA Cup final and watching the Knicks and the Spurs and you're seeing Harrison Barnes and Mike Brown out there. You're seeing, you know, De'Aaron Fox out there. Yeah. We just talked about Halliburton.
It's especially sad when you think about where they were just a few years ago and how they're like back to being the Kings.
Yeah. Well, you also have the Sabonis trade now looming, but you gave them this pretty pricey extension.
Yeah.
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Chapter 5: What are the key developments in the NBA power rankings?
Number five, Detroit, 27 to nine. We talked about them. To be interesting, the big thing for them is Give it a year or go for it. Houston, number four, 22 and 11.
A little bit in the same issue of they could get wacky and just do like Fred VanVleet and a contract and some of their picks and just say, fuck it and try to get Trey or John Moran or one of these dudes just to... But I don't think they will. I think they'll... I think, though.
I think they're good. They're good. They won that tough game last night. This is kind of where I thought they would be overall, but I've been shocked at how competent their offense has been without Fred VanVleet. But the offensive rebounding, the historic stuff it bears mentioning, it's like they're just punishing people. I know Shane Gooden's missing...
Chapter 6: How has the performance of the Spurs impacted their playoff chances?
but Stephen Adams is still just the most dominant offensive rebounder in the league, and that gives him an identity. And like you said, what did they lack last year, Bill? A guy who could make the exact shot that Kevin Durant made last night.
I do my All-NBA three teams every week just to update it, so I have it in my head. And I think Durant's played his way into the third team. I think there's two Rockets that you would have to put in the top 50 now. And I think Booker's on there too, would be the other guy.
Thompson looked electric last night too.
Thompson's on the bubble. Thompson's another one where it's like, oh man, you might have to throw the stats out with him. Number three, San Antonio. I mean, we've talked about them on the ringer all over the place the last couple of weeks. We'll see. Am I getting... Wemby healthy in April, May, and June. And there's no way to know. No way to know.
Chapter 7: What challenges do the Denver Nuggets face with injuries?
I just want to see him play for three straight months, please.
The biggest development there is even if he's not there, they're a good team, which is crazy. I was out on the Spurs for a playoff spot this year in large part because I didn't believe without Wemby they could walk and chew gum at the same time. They've done more than that. Fox has fit in. And then like the young guards, Castle has made the leap. Dylan Harper.
I don't know which of these two guards I like more. I go back and forth. I love them. And then Harrison Barnes, Champagny, Keldon Johnson. This, Luke Cornett. This is just... Cornett signing was great. It was great.
And Harrison Barnes giving them... He's the Celtic we missed the most out of all the guys that left.
Well, do you think the Celtics should get in the market for a Gafford or another big? I think they're going to compete this year. That frontcourt, as good as Kate has been, Garza, it's a nice story. Do you want to bolster that frontcourt a little bit?
I think there's buyout potential with somebody. I don't, I'd be really surprised that they did a trade. Yeah. I don't, sometimes when it's going really, I think Phoenix is probably in the same boat when you have something really special going on with a group of guys that just like playing basketball with each other. I don't, I don't want to fuck with it.
You saw Cleveland do it last year when they were playing great. And then they did that Hunter trade and that they've kind of never been in the same sense, not his fault, but it messed with their chemistry.
Yeah.
Jerome was a big part of their vibe. Yeah. Um, One thing I'll say about San Antonio, because I did a lot of research on them and I was trying to figure out if I'd want to make a move or not if I was them. Keldon Johnson's like the kid. There was a huge piece about him last week. Keldon Johnson's like the emotional fulcrum of their team. They love him. He's like the guy in that team.
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Chapter 8: How do the Eagles and Steelers fan bases view their playoff prospects?
Finch, who hates the Thunder, has publicly said he hates how the Thunder play, goes into that game in Minnesota. And he's ready to explode. And sure enough, he gets a chance. He gets ejected. And, you know, the Thunder are six and six in their last 12.
But I looked at the numbers and the craziest thing I found is that Shea Gills Alexander, since that Spurs game, he's gone from the fifth most fouled player in the NBA to the 31st. most fouled player in the NBA. His free throws are way down. His ability to draw fouls has magically decreased substantially since peaking before then. And J-Dub is the other thing.
He has not clicked in with this group the way they expected. He was in my notes. So between SGA sort of reduced free throw line activity and J-Dub's lack of sort of cohesion with this group, Simply put, this isn't the juggernaut that I thought they were December 10th. This is not the juggernaut that was, what, 24-1? And I think it's good for the league. I still think they're the favorite.
Don't get mad at me, Thunder fans. But I think this is just like they've come back to earth a little bit.
I still have them as the favorite. I think Jalen Williams, I'm betting on him to come back. and be fine, but he has not looked the same and he should have gotten better, not worse this season. I had him as like the 13th best player coming into this season. Now you wouldn't have him top 25, most impactful from what we've seen.
The fear if you're a Thunder fan is, although you did win the title, so there's not that much fear and you have a million draft picks and you have the best foundation in the league. The fear would be that 24 on one start, was that a little like when You know, Phoenix started really well that year after they made the finals. And then they kind of peaked in December.
Or the Warriors, when they had the 25-game winning streak to start the season. They win 73, but then they don't win the finals. Here's what I'm looking at. I think it's as simple as this. When they don't make threes, they're pretty beatable now. I went back and I looked through their six losses, four of which I watched.
The three San Antonio games, two of them, they were 24% from three and 25% from three. And the third one, they gave up 130. Spurs made everything, right? Minnesota game, 28% from three. The Phoenix loss a couple nights ago, 31% from three, and they got out-rebounded by 20. And then Charlotte last night, 28% by three, got out-rebounded by 19. My question, big picture...
With Dort, who last year was 41% from three and is now at 33. Caruso, who was 35 last year, is now at 30. My big question is, is the league becoming better enough offensively that you can't get away with as much Dort and Caruso as they were able to get away with last year? That you actually need a little more, even though their offense is, it's up there.
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