The Bill Simmons Podcast
The NFL’s Coaching Carousel, and a Round 2 Breakdown With Peter Schrager and Joe House
16 Jan 2026
Chapter 1: What is discussed at the start of this section?
The Bill Simmons Podcast presented by FanDuel Sportsbook. We are also presented by the Ringer Podcast Network. I put up a new rewatchables on Tuesday. We do What Lies Beneath. We have a really good movie coming out Monday. Good meaning that we've been dying to do this one for years. So stay tuned for that. You'll be either pleasantly surprised or horrified. It'll be one or the other.
This is my fourth podcast of the week. It's our first week on Netflix. We remain on video and you can listen to us on Spotify as well. And you can find us on any podcast platform you want. We will be going live on Sunday right after the fourth playoff game of the weekend, which is Rams-Bears. Cousin Sal and I will be here. It should be around seven o'clock. We will be live on Netflix for that.
And you'll be able to listen to that one right after. Coming up here, we're going to have Peter Schrager come back. We have Joe House still here. We're a carcass from last week. We got killed on picks. It's fine. We're going to talk round two. We're going to talk coaches, a whole bunch of other stuff next. Let's take a break, Pearl Jam, and then boom, let's go.
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Get ready for the playoffs. Let's go. Must be 21 plus president-select states, 18 plus in D.C., Kentucky, and Wyoming. Get in a problem, call 1-800-GAMBLE or visit rg-help.com. Call 888-789-777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Connecticut. All right, recording this late afternoon Pacific time. Joe House here, as always, as we continue the carcass that was our Ringer 107 pick season.
I like it at this point. I'd rather with picks either be terrible or good. And we've been terrible this year. Peter Schrager joining us. He's been doing media, I think, for 48 straight hours. I've seen him on every ESPN channel. Just Tom and Harbaugh. He's just on Rinse... Rather repeat Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh, Tom and Harbaugh. Why was this such a big deal? Which one? Both of them?
Just the combo of it. It felt like this end of an era, start of a new era thing. But meanwhile, neither guy had won a playoff game. Well, Tom and I had won. He lost his last seven. Harbaugh hadn't made the Super Bowl since when? 2013?
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Chapter 2: What are the implications of the coaching changes in the NFL?
Yep.
Since the Superdome.
And yet it was, everyone was reacting like this. Like, do these guys have anything left in the tank, in your opinion, to be Super Bowl winning coaches?
Interesting, because as everyone was doing flips on my ESPN networks today, and hello to the Netflix audience. I'm happy if you're watching Emily in Paris. I'm here now. This is good. As everyone was doing flips about the hardball, someone in the NFL, a very trusted source, texted me and goes, I could have sworn you were all doing the same flips about Pete Carroll last year when...
The Raiders hired Pete Carroll, and they thought that that was the culture guy, and that was going to bring stability. And I said, it's a little different. It's a little different in that Harbaugh is 11 years younger than Pete Carroll. And in this case, he is what the Giants actually need. Such turbulence there over the last 5-10 years.
And this is almost... I don't like saying... I didn't want to say this on air, on television, because it almost goes to a dark place, but John Mara is sick. John Mara, the owner of the Giants, is sick in a way that in this move is like him putting his flag down, saying, okay, whatever happens over the next... however long. We know this franchise is at least in capable hands.
And we know that John Harbaugh is going to at least instill stability and install a professionalism and a culture of discipline winning Giants football that is what those fans have always known, whether it be Coughlin or Parcells or even Dan Reeves. There's always been that... That senior voice, that leader, that guy who's been there, done that before even getting there.
You mean the fans over 18 years old?
Yeah. I mean, that's...
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Chapter 3: How do the Giants' recent decisions reflect their franchise stability?
And at some point you got to slam your fist down and be like, I can't do this again. We shit quarterbacks.
Like, what are we doing guys? Help me out. What's interesting is the stuff that came out afterwards is that he handed his papers and he said, I'm done. He walked away and, And it sounds like the Steelers were willing to run it back maybe one more year and have that conversation.
So whereas Harbaugh was flat out fired by Steve Bishotti, who, by the way, the best hour press conference I've ever seen him give. And we don't have enough of him on television. He should be on a microphone more. But that said, where that's a firing, this one, Tomlin gets his papers in and says he'll do it.
And he goes out with dignity and he tells the team and you get the story today that everyone was crying and standing ovation, the whole thing. He's got two more years left on that contract. And as pleasant and as amicable as that was, the Steelers are a business and they're not just going to let him go anywhere. So he's going to have to sit out at least one year.
And then next year, there has to be a trade to get him. Now, he was making more than $20 million a year. to be the Steelers head coach. And he's got two more years left on that. So he's walking away in a place where I don't think he wanted to hear the noise anymore. I think he wanted a break. I think he wanted to have a fresh start. And the media deal...
I worked, obviously, with Sean Payton the one year he was away. Mike McCarthy and I did the draft together this year when he was away. And it's amazing that these guys still, like when Payton was gone for that year, he might not have said too many vitriolic things or gone viral. But watching games with him, he was just peppering everybody in that green room. What are your thoughts on Bryce Young?
What are your thoughts on Justin Herbert? Do you think that Chargers job would be open? He spent that whole year navigating the landscape and getting as much... What do you think of David Tepper? Is that a guy I could work with? What do you think of that? Those were the questions.
I would imagine if Tomlin takes a year off, next year will be a fact-finding mission and he will be the Mike Vrabel hire of next season where he was away for a year and now he will have all the information he wants.
So should I have done this after I left ESPN house? Take a year. Just taking a year and just done the Fox Sunday NFL show. Just on those guys and been like, I don't know what I, I don't know what I have long-term yet. Steak dinners. It just sounds great. It's basically like a gap year.
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Chapter 4: What predictions are made for the Buffalo vs. Denver game?
And to me, if I had to pick the narratives, Buffalo wins. The narrative is, oh my God, Josh Allen, this is your superhero. The other version is Denver just kind of controls the game, beats them, and then we turn into a... They're not doing right by Josh Allen, and we do that whole thing. Why didn't they get a wide receiver? This is their fault. They wasted a great Josh Allen season.
All right, so we're going to go Denver minus one and a half. I honestly think that line is... I think this should be Denver by three. Okay, then definitely take it minus one and a half if you can. Next game, Seahawks seven.
Chapter 5: What is the impact of injuries on the Seahawks vs. 49ers matchup?
over the depleted 49ers who are just losing guys left and right and are under attack by electromagnetic rays at their practice facility. Has an article ever gone more viral? No, it's amazing. Kittle out. We've lost him. Trent Williams playing, but just as like, I'm just not healthy. I don't feel great at all. Gave up six pressures last week. Yeah, I'm just not doing good. Seattle.
Chapter 6: How do the hosts analyze the quarterback situation for the Seahawks?
Two week rest. Well, major news today. Killed this team. And yet Sam Darnold comes out of nowhere with a weird abdominal injury.
Middle of the day on a Wednesday, Thursday. At practice. What are we? Come on.
He's running with the Theragun. It's listed as an oblique.
Chapter 7: What betting strategies are discussed for the upcoming playoff games?
And Clint Kubiak said in his press conference, who's the offensive coordinator, that Drew Locke took a lot of snaps with the ones. And I was with Orlovsky today in Bristol, and I'm like, I don't know enough about each injury. I'm like, oblique? He's like, horrible for a quarterback. Horrible. It hurts to run. Every throwing motion, it's as bad as one of the arm injuries.
Well, that's why we have drugs, Shrinks. That's what I said. That's when you can just shoot up.
That's why we have Toradol. I don't know. Can you get it?
I have a question for you, House. Go ahead. Sam Darnold versus Drew Locke. How much of a drop-off is that for you? If I have a better defense, I'm just going to run the ball and I barely ask my QB to do anything.
So no joke. What do you think the line will be? Let's play guess the lines. What will the line be if Drew, Drew Locke is announced Saturday morning as the quarterback of the Seattle Seahawks? I think it drops to Seattle four and a half. Yeah.
Five and a half, four and a half.
Yeah. I think we go into the Vegas zone.
Only a point and a half.
Yeah.
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