Good Talk -- Why Not Get A Risk Assessment For A U.S. Invasion?
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Why did the Prime Minister ask for a risk assessment on a possible U.S. invasion of Canada?
Are you ready for Good Talk? And hello there, Peter Mansbridge here, along with Chantelle Hebert and Bruce Anderson. It's your Good Talk Friday, and we have, as always, lots to talk about, so let's see how much we can get through this time around. You know, I've been following Mark Carney for a while, maybe the last 10 years at different times in different situations. I've always assumed that he's very careful about what he says and how he answers questions. I have no reason to believe he doesn't think through things before he says them. So I was wondering, maybe Bruce, you can start us off. What he might have been thinking when he decided to answer that question? I know you don't know what he thinks.
Well... But what do you assume would have been the case when he decided to answer that question from the six New York Times reporters about the possibility of American troops entering Canada?
Well, I think through the whole interview, what he was doing was giving a pretty candid explanation of how he, as Canada's leader, was thinking through the various impacts of how President Trump has been dealing with Canada. So for me, that one question wasn't as remarkable, I think, as some of the news coverage suggests it was. his answer was consistent with the clarity that he gave on a variety of other issues. He talked about, you know, one that he used the expression, I think once you see something, you can't unsee it. And he was talking about the, the nature of the relationship that President Trump had started with Canada. He talked about defense and security arrangements. He was fairly candid about some of those basically needing to have a second look.
He talked about we're going to diversify away from Starlink. He talked about we'll deepen economic integration with China, but not security integration. I thought that what he said about having examined the extreme tail risk of military action was I guess I understand why it was newsworthy, but I don't think it was particularly newsworthy to me anyway, that somebody who's got that instinct for risk measurement and risk management that he does, and that kind of disciplined approach to how to think through the big public policy problems. It didn't surprise me that there had been some consideration of that. I would have been surprised if there hadn't been before, to be honest. Yeah,
I'm pretty sure there have been before. I mean, I seem to recall years ago hearing about, and I mean years ago, 10, 15, 20 years ago, that there's always been a kind of book. that's available to governments on what to do in the case of a U.S. invasion, as far-fetched
as that
seemed. It's just that in these days, in these times, it's quite something to talk about and to choose to answer that question. I don't know. Chantal, where are you on it?
Well, it has crossed the minds of many Canadians over the past year and a half, I suspect including yours, based on questions from past good talk shows. So the Prime Minister didn't raise the issue. He was asked. So I tried to think, you know, what are the choices of answers? I don't want to get into that is one answer, which basically means, yes, we did start thinking along those lines. So draw the conclusion. The other answer is it never crossed my mind. That's a lie. So it's not a great answer. So you're kind of, you've got three answers. One is no comment, which is a confirmation. The second is I'm going to lie about this. And the third is, sure, I mean, we think that's a very extreme scenario, but it's our job to think of every scenario when someone says he wants to annex you.
So I'm with Bruce. I don't think the answer came as a huge surprise for me. most Canadians, and I suspect that it came as no surprise to those who keep up with the Globe and Mail, because a story in the Globe and Mail documented exactly that scenario and the conclusions that whoever was drafting contingency issues came up with. I also agree that I believe those plans always exist somewhere. I think the difference here is the prime minister asked that we have those plans.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why did the Prime Minister ask for a risk assessment on a possible U.S. invasion of Canada?
0:00–6:10
2
What does Mark Carney’s “extreme‑tail‑risk” comment reveal about Canada‑U.S. defence planning?
6:10–12:19
3
How have Canadian governments historically prepared contingency plans for a U.S. incursion?
12:19–19:29
4
Why did the Prime Minister raise the potash‑tariff issue with the New York Times?
19:29–24:50
5
What is Bill C‑39 and why are critics calling it a massive expansion of political discretion?
24:50–31:54
6
How could C‑39 affect labour rights, First Nations consultation and environmental oversight?
31:54–38:38
7
What are the potential consequences for Parliament if C‑39 bypasses normal debate?
38:38–45:11
8
How will upcoming provincial elections (BC, Quebec, Alberta) intersect with the federal legislation debate?
45:11–52:24
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The Bridge with Peter Mansbridge
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