Chapter 1: What are the implications of troop deployment in the Middle East?
Hello and welcome to the Bulwark Podcast. I'm your host, Tim Miller. It is Monday, so we are back with editor-at-large Bill Kristol. Bill's grandchildren suffered a devastating defeat over the weekend, and we're going to save that for the end. We'll do some life lessons.
It's important, you know, if you have children or grandchildren who've been disappointed recently, there are things that can be learned from that, and we'll save that for the end. But we'll start with some positives. The No Kings... Rallies were happening over the weekend. I was in attendance at the New Orleans event. It looks like you were somewhere much chillier in the Northeast.
What were your takeaways?
It was cold in Waltham, Massachusetts. I should come to New Orleans the next one. I was in Boston for various other reasons and went to the event with a couple of friends, their families actually in Waltham. younger friends. It was good. It was great. I mean, it's a little different from McLean. McLean, Virginia is ex-Republican-ish types, many of whom I know, I've lived here so long.
And also, you know, hey, I remember you from, you know, this McCain event or from the Bush administration or our weekly standard subscribers. Waltham, which is a Western suburb of Massachusetts, Brandeis is there. It's a little past Cambridge and Belmont, all those places. It's more like, I used to hate you. Yeah, that was more that. I can't believe we're on the same side here.
20 years ago, I was in this very place protesting against you. It's a little different vibe, but everyone was friendly. And I was struck by just the... I mean, so this was a more lefty, if you will, group, but they were all sensible so far as I could tell. There were a lot of American flags. There was an attempt to keep on the basic message, but there was not no speeches.
This was 1,000 people or whatever honking, but very upbeat bands kind of marching around playing Woody Guthrie, but also the Battle Hymn of the Republic. And so I came away pretty inspired, actually, pretty impressed. What about you in New Orleans?
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Chapter 2: How do the 'No Kings' protests reflect political sentiments?
We had speeches, which were good, and a lot of local activist groups. It's funny. On the internet, this even actually ekes out into real life. I did the PBS show in Austin that Evan Smith interviews after our live event a couple weeks ago. And there's a Q&A period afterwards, and it's a lot of kind of old, earnest kind of NPR.
I mean, literally NPR tote bag boomer liberals in this case, since it was PBS. One or two of them asked me. They're like, yeah. my granddaughter, my son doesn't think this is cool to go to the no Kings protest. They're not engaging. You know, they think it's only for corporate liberals and it's nothing that's going to actually get done.
And I was kind of saying to them, I don't, I don't think you should worry about that. And I think there's value to doing it. And it's funny, like when you get out there in the real world, the no Kings rally in New Orleans was like everybody, you know, there was the communists at a booth and, And then there are the people dressed as the Statue of Liberty and the former Republicans.
And I had a guy come up to me and say, you're my second favorite podcaster besides Hasan Piker. I was like, okay, well, that's an interesting pairing. But people are more complicated in the real world. And I think that people have a lot of varying different views. Totally. Everybody I talked to felt good to be out there. It was a good crowd. Registering dissent, organizing, planning other stuff.
I think it's valuable for that, for local organizing as well, getting people more engaged, particularly somewhere like Louisiana. To me, I think that the biggest element of success, sometimes you like to figure, skate, judge this stuff, and it's like, was it big enough? And was there an exact result the next day? And to me, my big takeaway from a Glass Half Full standpoint is...
There was a widespread, diverse, but clear message coming from the opposition, which is that we don't like the lawless rule from this president. And some of us are really focused on Iran and others on Epstein and others on the economy and others on other stuff. Some of us are mad about everything. But like there is a united opposition opposed to the lawlessness of this administration.
And coming from the other side, there wasn't a message at all. Before the second No Kings, they tried a message, which is that these people are all extremists and Antifa and they're radicals. And, you know, if you really love America, you should be on our side. That was like the message they kicked around before No Kings 1 and 2. And they didn't even really do that this time.
I mean, there was nothing coming out of the White House. The Republican National Committee did a homophobic joke about Tim Walz. And I'm just like, OK, this is the best you got.
Whatever.
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Chapter 3: What lessons can we learn from Lincoln's stance on war?
I mean, it's a tribute to the No Kings, to the rallies and to the organizers of the rallies, I would say, Indivisible and others who really did a, I think, again, a terrific job that that message flopped so badly in October about these are anti-American terrorists and, you know, communists and so forth, that they've just decided to hope, I suppose, the Trump people and that, you know, this just passes by quickly and they don't, and they can, ignoring it was better.
But that's a tribute to the No Kings people. I would say the only thing I, the point I make is I'm struck by people like, You, Jim Swift, was in Cincinnati, people who were in real cities and there were speeches. It was a little more organized. People had booths.
What's striking in Waltham, where it was on the town common, you know, they all have these commons up there in New England, or McLean here when I was there in October and Susan was there this time, is it really is just people getting together. And that's impressive. You know, there's no entertainment.
I mean, there are people, you know, six person put together impromptu band kind of thing, but they just came out and they wanted to show, you know, show the flag, so to speak, literally in some cases. And the signs were 90%, I'm going to say homemade.
I mean, and very diverse for that reason, because people had their own things and some were funny and some tried to be funny, weren't quite as funny. And some were, some were big and some were small. And it was really, I found that part kind of, um, I mean, one thing that always put me off, I'm not a big protest person anyway, and of course, it's on the conservative side.
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Chapter 4: Where does Congress stand on war-making powers today?
But one thing that always put me off at these protests is the kind of the mass chance has a slightly creepy overtone sometimes of, you know, but there was almost none of that here. It was genuine civic activism, I've got to say.
I should say the gentleman that said that I was a second favorite podcaster was dressed up as a superhero. I couldn't identify. So, you know, you get them in all flavors out there. I'm with you. It's not my most comfortable space, the protest, just a candor. You know, it's just not where I've...
was built for but i feel like for there are other folks for whom it's very important and it's valuable and it's community building and and i think that that's good and i think that it's good to demonstrate that folks aren't going to be intimidated or scared and the fact that like even if it does lose a little bit of its urgency
for no kings four which i assume there will be one that is a good sign right that you know i think if you look at like what happened in minneapolis for example where it was the protesting was very urgent because people in their community were being menaced you know the fact that folks stood out there and demonstrated strength and demonstrated that they can't be bullied mattered and then that kind of opens the door for having these that are a little bit more in a festival spirit or whatever
There was one ominous thing tweeted by one congressperson I do want to mention because I don't want to let him get away with it. A Louisiana congressman, Clay Higgins, he posted this. It was a very strange post. It had four pictures of people from various No Kings Rallys. And he tweets, we were carefully observing. It was pretty much a flawless operation.
We have millions of digital images, billions of identifying data points, height, weight, shoe size, tattoos, gait, all of it. AI eats that stuff. Success. So essentially, a Republican congressman saying that...
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Chapter 5: What are the economic impacts of the current military actions?
whatever, ICE, CBP, Palantir was gathering pictures of people who showed up to those rallies and was going to use that for future attempts to crack down on a free population. I'm not really too scared of that that's going to be successful, but it's pretty alarming that that's where an elected official in a free country is trying to take things.
Yeah, I mean, if they are doing that, Palantir and DHS and all, they're kind of trying to cover it up, right? They always deny they're doing it, which at least shows they kind of recognize they shouldn't be doing it. To have an actual elected member of Congress sort of championing it and celebrating it is, you know, genuinely creepy.
It shows how authoritarian, I mean, he's not maybe typical, but he's not atypical exactly, and how unabashedly authoritarian the spirit, I'm just not saying anything new, but the spirit of the Trump Republican Party is. I like the shoe size. That's kind of a Rubio. That was kind of, I thought of floor chimes, Marco Rubio kind of thing. I don't know what it is.
It's like, well, maybe shoe size was, it was like, you know, subconsciously in his mind because of the ludicrousness of the, of Trump giving the oversized shoes to Rubio. I don't know.
I don't know where the Gates analysis came from, but this was a big thing at the Glenn Beck outlet that they decided that the pipe bomber – That's right.
That's where it was. They misidentified. They slandered that one person. They smeared that person.
Yeah, they slandered a woman who was a January 6th police officer. saying that she was the pipe bomber based on gait analysis. And then a couple of days later, the FBI arrested like one of the only people to catch a successfully arrested somebody that that admitted to being the January 6th pipe bomber. And now the blaze is not backing down.
There's just there's just another post just last week about how this man that they arrested, his gait does not match the gait of the person on the video. The only time I'd ever heard gait was like at Churchill Downs, like in the horse context. Like, does the horse have a good gait? Anyway, or what was it that Mrs. Romney participated in? Dressage.
They very clearly cared about gait, and Anne Romney cared about gait and dressage. Longevity is all the rage these days, because who wouldn't want to... Spend years and years in the Trump family empire. You know, you want to make sure you can live as long as possible to see Barron's third term. And there's a lot of supplements out there making all kinds of promises on how you can do that.
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Chapter 6: How is the Trump administration handling the situation with Iran?
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Once again, that's bloodflow7.com slash the bulwark for 30% off and make sure you use my promo code the bulwark so they know I sent you. Anyway, OK, I want to go to the latest from Iran. Just going to set the table. Your newsletters was very good this morning and it kind of tied the no kings message with what was happening in Iran and the lack of action from Congress. And you referenced a letter.
as is your want, from Lincoln to his friend regarding Polk entering war with Mexico. Yeah. And Lincoln was upset or in opposition to the unilateral engagement of war with Mexico in this letter. It was another winner. It was Yates last week, Lincoln this week.
Every once in a while, you have some misses in the newsletter with your historical references, but I thought this one was also right on the nose. So why don't we start there?
Yeah, so Lincoln was against the Mexican War. I think part of what Graham said was slavery expansion and other grounds as well, just unjust war. And also that Polk had sort of unilaterally decided to both do it and then made a fake justification for it. Anyway, so he gave a speech in Congress, as I understand it, and he was a member of the House for one term, 1847 to 1849.
In January of 1848, he gives a speech denouncing Polk for taking the country to war on his own say-so, a false say-so, Lincoln claimed. His law partner Herndon, who I guess is back in Illinois, writes him a letter sort of defending, saying, oh, but the executive's got to have this discretion. And so we don't have Herndon's letter. We have, I'll just read maybe a couple of sentences.
We have Lincoln's letter, which is, you can see in the complete Lincoln works here. And, and, and suddenly I did not like remember this or find this myself. Other people have cited this online in the last few weeks. Okay, Bill, come on. We don't need false modesty. Sometimes I like Yates. I actually like remembered this is other people. So I looked it up. However, I mean, Lincoln's fantastic.
You know, so he says, first of all, your position is I understand it is that the president can invade the territory of another country. And whether there's a necessity to do so in any case, the president is to be the sole judge. So it's very apt to the current moment. And he says, you know, allow the president to invade a nation whenever he shall deem it necessary.
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Chapter 7: What are the potential consequences of military action in Iran?
And they resolved to so frame the constitution that no one man should hold the power of bringing this oppression upon us. But your view destroys the whole matter and places our president where kings have always stood. It is weirdly apt for the no kings framing. And so that's why other people, I think, cited it and why I took their citation and cited it myself.
Yeah.
Where is Congress right now? It is not just about the vote for the war-making power, which obviously is the prime issue in controversy. There have been very few hearings. I think Roger Wicker is the chairman of the Armed Services Committee in the Senate. He's one of these guys who kind of pretends to be an old-school Reagan Republican still.
The last time Roger Wicker came to my attention—I forget he's in the Senate still a lot of times—the last time he came to my attention— He was like wearing a Ukraine and America joint pin on his lapel. I forget if it was during the State of the Union or during some prominent hearing. And I found myself like screaming at my screen, like, you could do something about this.
It was like right in this moment where Trump was, you know, taking away funds from Ukraine. So this is another moment, right? And they run these committees. They could have Pete Hegseth
over they could have general kane over there there's plenty of things to ask about and obviously a vote you know authorization of the war is is more important but but just the the scale of their abdication i think is also highlighted by the fact that they're not even doing other elements of kind of basic congressional responsibility yeah we're a month into the war no public hearings some
confidential, classified hearings, not many, incidentally, and brief ones. And people have walked out dissatisfied, including Wicker himself, for what they're being told, the lack of clarity or even just information that's being provided. And that's it so far as I know. Nothing to educate the public.
The Trump administration does nothing to try to lay out a case for the war or now a case for ground troops, the prospect of which seems...
imminent or likely or at least very possible nothing and they feel no obligation it's like we're going to war because one man has decided so we're conducting it in a way that one man wishes he has he you know puts out different messages every day or conflicting messages or threats and and promises and claims his administration is not much more responsible than he is honestly i guess the
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Chapter 8: What life lessons can we derive from sports disappointments?
When you do all these preparations, this one puts me, you should probably bet on the fact that some of these troops are going to get used. Some of them are more Trumpy than you and I are. Some of them are sort of ambivalent about the war and could work out okay.
They had a whole theory of it, which was very consistent with that Israeli leak the other day about massive bombing efforts that might bring Iran to the table and reopen the strait and let us get out with sort of... adequate outcome, you might say. Mostly it's just reopening the strait that was already closed, but doing a lot of damage to their military capacities and stuff.
They were all against any of the use of ground troops that have been in the media. They think the Karag Island thing is crazy. They think the strait is pretty crazy. We could get some ships through the strait if we want to really deploy a lot of naval assets and some air assets over them, and maybe some special forces on selected parts of the bank of the strait.
But I mean, even there, it's not clear it's worth it. Anyway, that's a very targeted operation. But the idea of actually going to seize land, they are all against it. I mean, these are people, as I say, who are not exactly, some of whom were ambivalent about the war, some of whom have been involved in the military against Iran for a long time. and in other agencies. So I was very struck by that.
Now, maybe, look, maybe they don't know. They're there to always be cautious. They don't want to second guess Admiral Cooper or Chairman Kane. Maybe the military has better plans than they realize. But these are people who know a lot more than I do. And I was just struck by, as I say, not the unanimity.
They didn't quite have my position, which is basically we should just cut our losses at this point. But they did not think there was any good case for ground troops. And again, none has been made. I mean, that's what's most striking. We are literally going to put hundreds, thousands of soldiers and Marines on the ground in Iran, perhaps.
And no one has explained for even a minute why we're doing it or justified it.
I kind of have a little bit of a justification from Rubio over the weekend, but I want to save that for a second. So it's been the most clear thing that we've heard, but I just want to run through a couple of the other news items first. Another thing that we should have mentioned was that a plane sitting on the runway in Saudi was absolutely obliterated by an Iranian missile.
This is the type of plane, I'm sure you know more about this than me, that we don't have that many of.
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