Are Canadian REITs Finally Cheap Enough to Buy?
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Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.
Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle.
If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors. This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time. Welcome back to the Canadian Investor Podcast. I'm Simon Beranger and I'm back with not Dan Kent, Dan Foch. And we're doing... Too many Dans. Yeah, too many Dans. I know even my neighbor is named Dan and I'll talk to my wife sometimes and she'll be like, You have to specify which Dan it is. There's too many Dan. So but welcome back to the podcast. Obviously, we do our Friday lives regularly, which is fun. We'll be doing again our macro episodes. And I guess this one will be coming out probably after the Friday episode is released on the podcast.
So if you haven't listened to it, make sure you get to it. We'll be talking about recessions with Canada entering a recession in Q1 of this year. So following Q4. We'll be diving deeper into that, but today we're actually doing a special episode on REITs, so Real Estate Investment Trust, because Dan Kent is under the weather. He's dealing with a nasty virus. He's got the... full gam of symptoms from you know sweating fever no voice so it was in no condition voices are pretty important for the podcast yeah it's pretty important so i got another dan to step in so that that's it but today yeah i think it'll be fun we've done these episodes a few times um reets are It's always an interesting asset class, I find, just because it's so different depending on the type of REIT we're looking at.
So we'll start off here with residential REITs. And obviously, you know this space extremely well. I'm a bit more familiar, I guess, overall with the public space, although I know you know these REITs very well, too. So let's start with residential, what you're seeing right now, what investors should think about when looking at these REITs, at least for investments.
Yeah, so the big things that I'd be looking at are like, what are the trends that will eventually be coming into the earnings of the REITs that I'd be investing in in the residential sector? So what can I infer on a leading indication basis? And the way that I look at that from a residential perspective is you have a couple of prevailing trends. Number one, you have rents are falling. So your income is down for these people. And there's kind of two ways to think about that. So you have your new rents, right? That if rents are falling, your new rents are going to be lower. But your existing tenants, you may not be able to charge them as much of a price increase every single year. So that is probably going to affect the top line.
Vacancies are rising as well. So we've gone from like a 2% vacancy environment to like a 5% vacancy environment across Canada, I think on average. I can pull up the RD report when you're chatting, but... That's basically taking your income from getting 98% of all of your income on your suites to 95% or whatever. And so that'll shrink your income a little bit as well. So those are key factors. And then I would say that the other piece is that there's a lot of supply coming online and there's not a lot of demand. Historically, when population was growing like crazy, the Canadian government had massive population growth. That correlates almost one-to-one with rent inflation. And so it shouldn't be surprising that rents are falling and rent inflation is falling.
If population growth is falling and population growth was negative last year, it's probably going to be negative again this year. It'll be like 27 or 28 before we see positive population growth. New people moving to Canada, they probably don't buy a house immediately. They become a tenant for a little bit. They shop around the markets, whatever. So you had this consistent pipeline of renters.
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