GameStop’s Wild eBay Bid, Shopify’s AI Question, and Google’s Monster Quarter
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What are the details of GameStop's proposed bid for eBay?
Investing is simple, but don't confuse that with thinking it's easy. A stock is not just a ticker. At the end of the day, you have to remember that it's a business.
Just my reminder to people who own cyclicals, don't be surprised when there's a cycle.
If there's uncertainty in the markets, there's going to be some great opportunities for investors.
This has to be one of the biggest quarters I've seen from this company in quite some time.
Welcome back to the Canadian Investor Podcast. I'm Simon Beranger. I'm back with Dan Kent. This earnings season is a good reminder that the market does not simply reward good numbers. It rewards numbers that are better than expected. That's why Shopify can report GMV up a whopping 35%, revenue up 34%, and free cash flow up 31% yet. the stock still falls close to 15%. And at the same time, Alphabet puts up what looks like monster quarter with revenue up 22%, operating income up 30%, cloud revenue up 63%. And suddenly, the old narrative that Google was going to be disrupted by AI looks a lot less obvious and well into the rearview mirror. So today, We're going to try something a little different. We'll start with a quick high-level framework, tying these stories together from our news and earnings, and then we'll go through each news item one by one in more detail with the usual back and forth that you're used to.
And the common thread today is expectations. Some companies are showing strong results, but valuation already demands a lot. Some companies have softer headline numbers, but the underlying business may be improving. And in a few cases, AI, energy, and infrastructure spending are showing up in places investors may not have expected.
Yeah, I think that's a good way to frame it because this is a pretty wide mix. So we have Alphabet showing that AI may be more of a tailwind than a threat. Shopify is kind of showing that strong growth can still disappoint when the valuations are just so high. CP Rail had softer headline quarter, but... The metrics underneath of it looked a lot better. And Toramont is kind of showing how a high demand can pop up in very unexpected industrial type businesses. Suncor benefiting from higher oil prices, record production. And then we have an interesting segment on GameStop trying to buy eBay. It might be one of the strangest acquisition stories we've seen in quite a while.
Exactly. And I think the main lesson for investors is that the headline tells you what happened. The stock reaction tells you what investors thought was supposed to happen. And that is where people often get tripped up. Shopify is the obvious example here. The quarter looked strong on the surface. GMV hit $100 billion. Revenue was $3 billion. Monthly recurring revenue increased 16%. Free cash flow was up 31%. But the stock was down sharply because Gaiden pointed to revenue growth slowing in the high 20s. Investors are still trying to figure out whether AI is a headwind or tailwind for the business. And the stock was trading at more than 60 time forward earnings and free cash flow. That is a very demanding setup.
Right. And I think it's very different from saying that Shopify is all of a sudden a bad business. It's more so that when expectations are high, strong growth might not be enough. Investors need strong growth, durable margins, confidence in the AI story, especially with a company like Shopify. And there was a valuation there that kind of left little room for error.
Alphabet is almost the opposite example. So this is the company's 11 straight quarter of double digit growth. Revenue was up 22%. Operating income grew 30%. Margins expended. Cloud revenue grew 63%. Cloud operating income tripled. And management said cloud revenue would have been higher. if they had enough compute capacity. And that last point really matters. For all the debate about AI spending, Alphabet is giving investors evidence that the demand is real. This does not look like a demand problem. It really looks like a supply problem.
Yeah, and on the Canadian side, these themes are showing up in many different ways, I would say.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What are the details of GameStop's proposed bid for eBay?
0:01–5:24
2
How did Shopify's earnings impact investor sentiment?
5:24–10:37
3
What drove Alphabet's impressive growth in their latest quarter?
10:37–14:47
4
How is Suncor performing amidst rising oil prices?
14:47–15:44
5
What challenges is Canadian Pacific Kansas City facing?
15:44–18:11
6
How did Toromont benefit from AI-related demand?
18:11–19:15
7
What insights can we gather from the earnings season overall?
19:15–19:51
8
What are the implications of high valuations in the current market?
19:51–43:57
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from The Canadian Investor
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