The Chuck ToddCast

Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Avoid Disaster In Tennessee, But The Midterms Look Great For Democrats + Top 5 Senate Seats A “Wave” Election Could Put In Play

03 Dec 2025

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In this episode, Chuck Todd breaks down the surprising Democratic overperformance in Tennessee’s TN-07 special election and what it signals about a rapidly shifting political landscape. From early cracks in Trump’s coalition to the GOP narrowly avoiding a full-scale collapse in a district they should have won easily, Chuck explains why this political environment is inching toward a Democratic “wave.” He digs into why Aftyn Behn’s imperfections didn’t stop her from overperforming, why Republicans can’t replicate this win in dozens of upcoming races, and how establishment ties have become toxic for candidates in Trump’s GOP. With ACA subsidies, tariffs, and Venezuela emerging as major vulnerabilities—and Trump issuing weekly, indefensible pardons—Chuck argues we may be witnessing the end stages of the Trump era. Plus, he makes the case that Democrats’ Senate prospects are stronger than people realize, especially in an environment defined by high Democratic enthusiasm and a struggling economy. Finally, Chuck gives his ToddCast Top 5 at-risk Senate seats in a “blue wave” election and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. Go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Got injured in an accident? You could be one click away from a claim worth millions. Just visit https://www.forthepeople.com/TODDCAST to start your claim now with Morgan & Morgan without leaving your couch. Remember, it's free unless you win! Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 01:00 Takeaways from the TN-07 special election 02:15 Trend of Democrat overperformance continued in Tennessee 03:00 Is this political environment turning into a “wave” scenario for Democrats? 04:00 We’ve already started seeing cracks in Trump’s coalition 05:00 A loss in TN-07 would have led to the bottom falling out for the GOP 07:00 Aftyn Behn was not the perfect candidate for Dems in TN-07 08:45 Republicans will struggle to replicate this win in 35-40 races 11:00 Being associated with the establishment can be the kiss of death 11:30 Democrats are in a great political environment, Trump’s grip is slipping 12:15 GOP will likely extend ACA subsidies to mitigate the political damage 13:30 Tariffs and Venezuela are two big political liabilities for GOP 16:00 There was no mention of Trump from Matt Van Epps during campaign 16:30 There aren’t any positive future headlines coming for Republicans 18:15 We’re at the end stages of the Trump era 19:15 Environment will be high Democrat enthusiasm, with a bad economy 20:30 Trump’s granting indefensible pardons on a weekly basis 22:00 People are underrating Democrats chances of winning senate 24:00 If history is a guide, the likelihood of Dems winning 4 senate seats is high 30:30 ToddCast Top 5 Senate seats on “blue wave watch” 31:15 Historical precedents for massive upsets during wave years 34:15 #5 Florida 36:30 #4 Kentucky 38:45 #3 South Carolina 43:15 #2 Mississippi 44:45 #1 Montana 46:45 Ask Chuck 47:00 Thanks for having Clay Travis on to push us outside our bubbles 49:15 What to make of all the censures in congress? 53:30 How do the U.S. & Europe get responsible leaders into power? 1:01:15 Why is Biden facing challenges fundraising for his library? 1:05:00 Could Trump’s legacy become that of Benedict Arnold? 1:08:45 Could we see a mixed party presidential ticket in the future?See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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Chuck’s Commentary - Republicans Avoid Disaster In Tennessee, But The Midterms Look Great For Democrats + Top 5 Senate Seats A “Wave” Election Could Put In Play

This episode hasn't been transcribed yet

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