Full Episode - Trump’s Poll Numbers Are Sinking: Will Kristi Noem Take The Fall? + Hated By All The Right People: The Rise Of Tucker Carlson

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What is the political situation for Kristi Noem and Trump?

Unknown 0:00

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Chuck Todd 0:04

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Why is Stephen Miller considered untouchable in Trump’s circle?

Chuck Todd 0:39

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How do Trump's polling numbers affect Kristi Noem's position?

Chuck Todd 0:58

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Chuck Todd 1:47

This is a sponsor I absolutely embrace. So use that code. Hello there. Happy Thursday and welcome to another episode of the Chuck podcast. Yes, I am still on the road. I'm coming to you from Del Boca Vista. Sorry, that was just a little shout out to my Seinfeld friends there. I'm coming from actually technically I'm staying in Deerfield Beach, but I just spoke on campus at Florida Atlantic University. I'll be speaking to their Jupiter campus tomorrow. It's been a couple of days at FAU. I have to just say it just makes me so happy watching all of these Florida universities grow as successfully as they've grown. Being a Floridian – And being in the press over the last 20 years, you know, look, we all have our own state pride.

What are the implications of Trump's presidency on American democracy?

Chuck Todd 2:44

And, you know, I know people like to rag on Florida man and this or that. And but, you know, and, you know, I grew up in all of, you know, I grew up in Miami and, you know, Miami has taken its share of lumps, you know, gets people take pot shots at it. People take pot shots in Florida. But, you know, You know, when you're from here, you know, you take pride in it. You know, people like to take pot shots at New York. New Yorkers take pride in New York, right? People take pot shots at Mississippi. Those who live in Mississippi take a lot of pride in being from Mississippi. And, of course, what we will say is you don't get to trash our state or city. Only we do on this. But I've just marveled at how much –

Chuck Todd 3:30

how many of these universities have grown? You know, when it was basically, you know, a four university, you know, three universities, you know, dominated everything, Miami, Florida, Florida state. And you certainly had, you know, the small, you know, USF and UCF have been around a while. FAU, FIU, UWF. But over the last 30 years, they've gone from commuter universities, small universities to full-fledged just, Great campuses, beautiful campuses. FAU's got multiple campuses now in Palm Beach County. So it's... And I'm not just saying nice things because they invited me, but yeah, I'm going to say nice things because they invited me. But I mean it. And it's... You know, and what's great about South Florida is that I get political questions about all sorts of regions in the country because the beauty of Florida is everybody's from somewhere else, right?

Chuck Todd 4:28

Which is always what I always took pride in the fact that I was born and raised in Miami and how unusual.

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Chapters

8 chapters

1 What is the political situation for Kristi Noem and Trump? 0:00–0:39 2 Why is Stephen Miller considered untouchable in Trump’s circle? 0:39–0:58 3 How do Trump's polling numbers affect Kristi Noem's position? 0:58–2:44 4 What are the implications of Trump's presidency on American democracy? 2:44–1:15:35 5 What are Tucker Carlson's true ambitions? 1:15:35–1:16:24 6 How does Tucker Carlson's worldview reflect traditional values? 1:16:24–1:17:30 7 What does the future of conservatism look like after Trump? 1:17:30–1:20:07 8 What impact do Native American voters have on elections? 1:20:07–2:24:41

Speakers

3 identified

Chuck Todd 128 min Unknown 1 min Jason Zengerle

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Topics in this episode

Fox News 1 ICE 1 Miami 1 Quince 1 iHeart Podcast 1 Kristi Noem 1 NBC 1 Stephen Miller 1 The New Yorker 1 Wild Grain 1 Chuck Todd 1 soul 1

Source

Recorded29 Jan 2026

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Show notes

In this episode of the Chuck ToddCast, Chuck digs into the political fallout surrounding Kristi Noem, Stephen Miller, and a Trump White House that remains intensely reactive to public opinion. While Noem keeps her job—for now—new polling paints a bleak picture for both her and the administration, with Trump’s economic numbers underwater, disapproval near all-time highs, and even his own base increasingly uneasy with ICE’s aggressive tactics. Chuck unpacks why Noem’s performative politics may make her expendable, why Miller is untouchable as Trump’s “bizarro Dick Cheney,” and how Trump’s inner circle is once again showing signs of instability as voters question whether the president is focused on the issues that actually matter. The conversation then zooms out to a broader diagnosis of America’s democratic dysfunction, drawing on Chuck’s recent campus speech about why this moment feels uniquely unstable. From razor-thin modern elections and the collapse of congressional responsibility to unsettling parallels with 19th-century politics, Chuck argues that the presidency has become overly powerful because Congress has failed to govern. Fixing what’s broken, he warns, won’t come from political elites—it will require engaged citizens, serious institutional reform, and possibly constitutional amendments to rebuild a government voters have been loudly signaling they no longer trust. Then, author and writer for The New Yorker, Jason Zengerle joins the Chuck ToddCast for a deep dive into his book “Hated By All The Right People” about Tucker Carlson’s rise—and why he’s become the clearest avatar for the unraveling of modern American conservatism. The conversation traces how Carlson’s personal history, elite upbringing paired with outsider grievance, and long-running resentments toward figures like Bill Kristol helped shape a worldview centered on anger, masculinity, and cultural backlash. Though he styles himself as anti-establishment, Tucker remains very much a Washington insider, increasingly influential even after leaving Fox News and emerging as the true heir to Rush Limbaugh, with real political impact on figures like J.D. Vance. Chuck and Zengerle also explore how Trump subsumed conservatism, why Tucker may be the figure best positioned to keep Trumpism alive after Trump, and how white male grievance now sits at the core of conservative cultural politics. From the Iraq War’s role in Carlson’s ideological shift to his calculated positioning on Israel, media, and elite power, the episode asks what “real America” conservatism even means anymore—and whether there’s any path back for Never Trumpers, institutional Republicans, or business leaders who’ve bent the knee to a movement that no longer resembles the party they once knew. Finally, Chuck answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and expands on his Hall of Fame rant in light of Bill Belichick not getting in on the first ballot. Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary. Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life! Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction 07:00 Kristi Noem still has her job, but Trump is reactive to public opinion 08:15 Noem’s profile feels like someone Trump is willing to dump 09:15 Trump will never fire Stephen Miller 10:00 Miller understands how to work government like a bizarro Dick Cheney 11:30 Does Miller have a conservative vision, or is he just a reactionary? 13:00 Trump may use Kristi Noem as a heat shield 14:00 Noem’s theatrics have created terrible optics 16:15 New Fox News poll has terrible numbers for Trump 18:15 Numbers in the poll could spell doom for Kristi Noem 19:15 Only 61% of Republicans say country is better off today 20:00 Trump’s numbers on the economy are underwater 21:45 Trump’s disapproval near all-time highs 22:45 Voters don’t think Trump is spending enough time on the economy 24:30 Trump’s job rating higher than almost all the individual issues 25:45 59% think ICE has been too aggressive 28:00 Even parts of Trump’s base think ICE has been too aggressive 29:00 Support for abolishing ICE has doubled since 2018 30:00 Trump’s inner circle never stays around for long 31:00 If Fox runs the poll extensively on air, Noem is in trouble 32:45 Chuck’s campus speech on where we are now & how to get out of it 33:45 We may have grown up in a more stable outlier era of American history 35:30 The cold war kept both parties sober & more mainstream 36:45 Six of our 21st century presidential elections decided by 5pts or less 37:15 Politics today is more similar to the 19th century 38:00 We’re too occupied with the presidency due to congress failing 39:00 Congress is more occupied with keeping power than legislating 40:30 We aren’t getting out of this until congress becomes functional 41:00 We will need constitutional amendments to fix the democracy 42:30 The citizens will need to fix this, can’t depend on congress 43:15 Voters gave a primal scream that they wanted a better government 50:30 Jason Zengerle joins the Chuck ToddCast 52:00 Why Tucker Carlson is the avatar for unraveling of conservatism 53:30 Tucker was abandoned by his mother, how did that affect his journey? 54:15 That abandonment shaped his worldview about women 55:30 Tucker’s anger at Bill Kristol is a big part of his evolution 57:30 Kristol has become the stand in for media elites in Tucker’s mind 58:30 Tucker tried to be a younger, cooler version of George Will 59:30 Carlson is very much a DC insider, but portrays himself as outsider 1:01:00 Tucker wasn’t a rich kid, but was raised like one 1:03:00 Tucker & Trump similarly hung with the elite, but felt like outsiders 1:03:45 Tucker trashed Trump in texts while praising him on the air 1:04:30 Tucker was more willing to criticize Trump than other Fox hosts 1:06:00 Tucker wasn’t viewed as a top-tier personality at Fox for years 1:06:45 Fox News is bigger than the on-air personalities 1:07:45 Leaving Fox didn’t diminish Tucker’s standing, more influential now 1:09:30 Tucker is the true heir to Rush Limbaugh 1:10:15 Tucker was influential in getting J.D. Vance elected in Ohio 1:11:15 Vance & Tucker are very ideologically aligned 1:12:30 White male grievance is central to conservative cultural politics 1:14:15 Tucker believes what he says & has a larger project for America 1:15:15 Tucker is more Pat Buchanan than Rush Limbaugh 1:16:00 Iraq war was very influential in changing Tucker’s ideology 1:17:15 Tucker needled Jewish Neocon Republicans by criticizing Israel 1:19:00 Tuckers sees party energy is anti-Israel & getting ahead of it 1:20:45 What is the definition of conservatism in “real America”? 1:21:45 Conservatism has been subsumed by Trump 1:23:00 Will conservatism snap back to its prior form after Trump is gone? 1:25:30 Tucker seems like the figure that could keep Trump’s politics alive 1:27:15 Tucker says he’s not mad at the Murdochs but he is 1:28:30 Tucker didn’t agree to be interviewed for the book, why? 1:31:15 Tucker likes to bash the media, but he’s one of their favorite sources 1:32:30 Tucker left D.C. after protestors showed up to his house 1:33:45 Who are the “camps” that will fight for control after Trump? 1:34:45 Ted Cruz & Rand Paul are the only two non “blood & soil” prominent R’s 1:36:00 Trump is the least “MAGA” person in the MAGA movement 1:37:45 Where do the Nikki Haley, John Kasich type voters go? 1:38:45 Business leaders have bent the knee to Trump 1:39:45 Who in conservative media world was most willing to talk? 1:41:00 Tucker doesn’t spend much time talking to people he disagrees with 1:42:30 Tucker wants to go back to a male & white dominated society 1:43:45 The Never Trumpers won’t be taking back the party 1:45:00 What Jason is working on at The New Yorker 1:48:00 Marco Rubio’s evolution has been fascinating 1:53:00 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Jason Zengerle 1:53:30 Ask Chuck 1:53:45 Who in real life is Veep’s Mike McClintock based on? 1:56:30 Impact of Native American voters on elections? 1:59:45 What signs will the GOP show if they think they’ll lose the senate? 2:03:00 The viral blue/yellow dress feels like a metaphor for politics 2:05:15 Any connection between income inequality and growing isolationism? 2:11:00 Why is Nathan’s Famous allowed to be bought by a Chinese company? 2:13:30 Hall of Fame rantSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ask this episode

“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.