Super Tuesdays - The Democrats’ 2028 Primary Map Is a Nightmare for Progressives

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The Chuck ToddCast 1h 12m 9 speakers 6 chapters transcribed 1 month ago

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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?

Carrie Brownstein 0:00

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Fred Armisen (ad/clip) - Not a show guest 0:04

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Carrie Brownstein 0:05

Carrie Brownstein and Fred Armisen here.

Fred Armisen (ad/clip) - Not a show guest 0:07

The dream of the 90s is alive in podcast form.

Carrie Brownstein 0:10

We're launching Podlandia AO Rewatch, our brand new podcast where we revisit every episode of Portlandia together, breaking down sketches, going deep on our iconic characters, and pulling back the curtain on how it all got made.

Fred Armisen (ad/clip) - Not a show guest 0:22

And we'll also be joined by the people who helped bring it all to life. Guest stars, collaborators, and friends, including director Jonathan Kreisel, the mayor himself, Kyle MacLachlan, legendary musician Amy Mann, and many more.

Carrie Brownstein 0:34

Kyle is going for it here. You fully improvised not just words, but a song, a melody.

Kyle MacLachlan 0:39

Well, I thought you were all going to write a song.

Carrie Brownstein 0:41

I remember you thinking that. Listen to Podlandia, AO Rewatch on the iHeartRadio app, Apple Podcasts, or wherever you get your podcasts.

Unknown 0:51

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Jake Brennan 1:21

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Nick Turturro 1:56

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Savannah James 2:10

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Nick Turturro 2:17

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Chris Cillizza 2:36

Well, we think we now know what the 2028 Democratic presidential nominated calendar is going to look like. So we're going to talk about it. Welcome to Super Tuesdays. I'm Chris Lizza. That's Chuck Todd. Yeah. And look, I'm going to apologize. I went 45 minutes on the calendar on the Chuck Todd cast on Monday. And I don't know if there's a nook or a cranny in the six states that I haven't been to. I'm happy about that because I think I disagree a little. We disagree a little, but but I think it's we disagree on a candidate. We don't disagree on the larger. I think that's right. All right. So let's let's just quickly roll out. So the DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee, literally like it's like Russian nesting dolls, a committee within a committee voted here.

Chris Cillizza 3:25

Here is we think. Again, it has to be approved by the full DNC, but this is what we think the nominating calendar will look like. South Carolina, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, Virginia. You will notice if you're paying attention, that's two more states than usually are in that early voting window. They used to do four. Now they're doing six. Iowa's out. Michigan's in. Virginia wasn't in. They're now in. All right. So let's talk about South Carolina first, Chuck, because it's- I think there's only two states that matter. South Carolina and New Hampshire? Nope. I'm a Ricky Bobby person. What's the Ricky Bobby rule, buddy?

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Chapters

6 chapters

1 What is the main topic discussed in this episode? 0:00–7:55 2 What is the DNC's proposed 2028 nominating calendar and which six states are in the early window? 7:55–17:53 3 How does starting the primary in South Carolina change campaign attention and candidate strategy? 17:53–23:09 4 Why might South Carolina advantage Black candidates — and does the Black vote act as a monolith? 23:09–34:16 5 Which candidates benefit from the new map—Wes Moore, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Mark Kelly or J.B. Pritzker? 34:16–41:46 6 Could this calendar be engineered to block progressive insurgents like Bernie or AOC? 41:46–1:12:33

Speakers

9 identified

Chris Cillizza 53 min Carrie Brownstein 2 min Fred Armisen (ad/clip) - Not a show guest 2 min Nick Turturro 2 min Jake Brennan 1 min Sam Jay 1 min Chelsea Handler 1 min Savannah James Kyle MacLachlan

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Topics in this episode

Joe Biden 1 Kamala Harris 1 South Carolina 1 Mitch McConnell 1 New Mexico 1 J.B. Pritzker 1 New Hampshire 1 Cory Booker 1 DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee 1

Source

Recorded28 Jul 2026

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Show notes

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada. From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars. Timeline: (Timestamps may vary based on advertisements) 00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar 01:00 The six-state lineup 01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most 02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week 03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris? 04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina 06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith 07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore 08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory 10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency 12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough 13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first 14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i 15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008 17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals 20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party 21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore 23:00 Why start where you can't win in November? 25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg 27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker 30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party 31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups 32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off 35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps 36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out 38:16 Trump will always make it about himself 40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline 41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one 43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private 45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country 45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president 46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement 48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes 50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome 53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community 54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day 54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams 57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James WoodSee omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

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“What did the council decide on item 42?” — answered with the speaker and the moment.