AI Under Trump? The Stakes of 2024 w/ Joshua Steinman [Pt 2 of 2]
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What is Nathan’s overall stance on a potential Trump presidency and its impact on AI development?
Hello and welcome to the Cognitive Revolution, where we interview visionary researchers, entrepreneurs, and builders working on the frontier of artificial intelligence. Each week we'll explore their revolutionary ideas, and together we'll build a picture of how AI technology will transform work, life, and society in the coming years. I'm Nathan LeBenz, joined by my co-host Eric Tornberg. Hello and welcome back to the cognitive revolution. This weekend we're running two episodes, which originally appeared on the moment of Zen feed, focusing on the election. in which I attempt to give an honest hearing and questioning to two different AI forward cases for Trump. I like this exercise because, in my honest opinion, this election is ultimately a referendum on Trump.
My interlocutors are in the first episode Samuel Hammond, senior economist at the Foundation for American Innovation, and a thinker that I generally very much respect. We cross posted his appearance on the Future of Life podcast last year, and I also really appreciated his ninety five theses on AI, most of which I agreed with. In the second episode, I speak with Joshua Steinman, Trump's National Security Council, Senior Director for Cyber Policy and Deputy Assistant to the President from twenty seventeen to twenty twenty one, the entire Trump term. Before launching into it, I'm gonna briefly share where I've landed on Trump, as I expect a possible Trump presidency might relate to AI development.
If you see AGI as a real possibility in the twenty twenty seven time frame, it seems totally reasonable to consider the election's impact on AI as a major decision making factor. Of course I understand that people have other priorities, but this is not a politics channel. So I'm not gonna offer my opinion on every issue, just AI and AI adjacent issues. Interestingly, as you'll hear, I find that on a number of these AI adjacent issues, I agree with the Trump supporters that I talk to. To name a number of them. Nuclear energy is good. We should build more nuclear plants. Population decline is a problem and does merit real concern. Freedom of speech is valuable and should be protected. On the current margin, we should have fewer rules and more right to build on one's own property.
We should cultivate a culture of achievement, we should aim for an age of abundance, and dismiss degrowth. And it makes sense to prioritize high skilled immigration, at least to some degree. Finally, American companies like Amazon, Google, and Tesla should not be allowed to abuse their market power at the expense of consumers, but neither should they be subject to government harassment just because they're out competing many legacy businesses. Fortunately, it does seem that the Democratic establishment is coming around on at least a number of these. But regardless, there are three big reasons that I cannot ultimately support Trump, despite these important points of agreement. Those are one, he is far too inclined to escalate tension with China, accelerate decoupling, and prioritize his own narrow domestic political interests over the national and global interests.
Two, the lack of rigor in his thinking and discipline in his communications seems like a recipe for unnecessary risk taking in an increasingly volatile environment. And three, I believe we are far better off approaching the future with a positive sum and inclusive mindset, not just within the US, but globally, if we're to have a healthy conversation about a new social contract that befits the AI era. On the question of US-China relations, I think we have a general failure of leadership and vision on both sides, unfolding slowly but gathering more momentum all the time. People now see adversarial relations with China as a foregone conclusion. Joshua Steinman calls it the physics of the environment.
To put it plainly, I do not accept this. Conflict with China would be a disaster, and an arms race would take us ever closer to that disaster. But I don't see this as an inevitability because I don't see China as a meaningful threat to America, Americans, or the American way of life.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is Nathan’s overall stance on a potential Trump presidency and its impact on AI development?
0:00–15:31
2
How does Joshua Steinman describe his experience working in the Trump administration’s National Security Council?
15:31–25:36
3
What are the main risks of an AI‑driven arms race with China that Nathan highlights?
25:36–35:27
4
Why does Nathan argue that stable, expert‑driven leadership is crucial during AI‑related crises?
35:27–47:28
5
How do the hosts propose building trust and de‑escalating AI competition between the US and China?
47:28–57:01
6
What concrete policy ideas (e.g., chip sanctions, domestic fab incentives) are discussed to shape the AI‑China landscape?
57:01–1:07:42
7
Why do the speakers consider nuclear and AI existential risks as a ‘Damocles sword’ for humanity?
1:07:42–1:09:39
Speakers
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