Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kitroff. This is The Daily. In its escalating campaign against Venezuela, the Trump administration has gone from shooting down drug boats to now trying to seize multiple oil tankers in the Caribbean Sea. Today, my colleague Anatoly Kermeneyev explains why President Trump is shifting his tactics on Venezuela and what that might tell us about his true ending.
It's Wednesday, December 24th. Anatoly, Merry Christmas. Thanks for joining us today.
Thank you for having me.
So the last time we talked to you was when the U.S. military was ramping up these strikes on boats in Latin America that they claimed were running drugs to the U.S. We are coming back to you now because over the past few weeks, we've been hearing about this new kind of escalation in the Caribbean, which is the U.S. seizing ships that have been carrying Venezuelan oil.
So help us understand how you're interpreting this new element to this operation, which has been dramatic in its own right.
We have seen major shifts in the narrative over the last few weeks, Natalie. The focus has shifted from a primarily military campaign to a primarily economic campaign. The U.S. government has moved away from boat strikes in the Caribbean and the alleged campaign to stop the flow of drugs coming from Venezuela to the United States. And they have moved towards Venezuelan oil.
They have moved towards taking action against tankers exporting Venezuelan oil, the biggest source of the country's revenue, with a very clear attempt to squeeze the country's finances, squeeze them to the point of strangulation, and achieve the results that they have not been able to achieve through military hands.
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Chapter 2: What escalation has the Trump administration taken against Venezuela?
So on December 10th, an oil tanker called Skipper, carrying about 2 million barrels of oil, was heading east towards China, carrying Venezuelan oil to its biggest market.
Extraordinary video released by the Trump administration showing the seizure of an oil tanker off of Venezuela.
But it was ambushed in international waters by U.S.
law enforcement agents. Watch as U.S. Navy helicopters swarm the tanker. Who repelled from a helicopter. Coming onto the deck of the oil tanker and then, as I see it there, guns drawn.
And to control the vessel.
Tonight, new satellite images of that oil tanker seized by the U.S. off the coast of Venezuela, headed to a port in Galveston, Texas.
and ordered the crew to take the ship towards Texas.
It's a new escalation in President Trump's pressure campaign against Venezuela and what he calls its illegitimate narco-terrorist regime.
And at first, the tanker's detention appeared to be a one-off, you know, like a big public relations move, you know, aimed to grab world attention, shift the narrative away from attacks on drug boats, which were becoming increasingly problematic in U.S. public opinion and would draw an increasing backlash from American lawmakers, including even some Republicans.
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Chapter 3: How is the U.S. shifting its strategy regarding Venezuelan oil?
But this month, Trump decided to give it a shot. He threw to the side the caution of the past and went big time against Venezuela's oil industry. And so far, the effects on the oil prices has been fairly muted. There are a lot of other different factors at play. The economy is weak. There's a
the prices have not bulged in any meaningful way, which has given him a carte blanche to expand his strategy to scale it up. But there's a bigger justification in play in Italy. Shortly after the detention of the first tanker, Trump published this long screed on Truth Social, his media platform, where he alleged a wholesale theft of American oil by Venezuelan governments.
Venezuelan governments, according to him, has stolen American land, has stolen American oil, has defrauded American oil companies. And he is writing a historical wrong.
What is he actually talking about there? Explain that.
The short answer is that we don't know. It's a very incoherent text that does not neatly match on any historical events. But throughout its history, Venezuela had several ways of nationalization.
Most recently, in 2007, where Maduro's predecessor, Hugo Chavez, nationalized some of the oil fields, leading to the exodus of some American companies like ExxonMobil and CanocoPhillips, who have been suing the Venezuelan government ever since.
Okay, so we're not exactly sure what Trump was referring to, but it seems to be a reference to this period of nationalization where American oil companies were kicked out of Venezuela and the government took control.
That's right. And Trump announced... and I quote him, a total and complete blockade of all sanctioned oil tankers going into and out of Venezuela. A few days later, his advisor, Stephen Miller, followed up with arguably even more incendiary tweets, alleging that the Venezuelan oil industry has been created by the toil and ingenuity of American people, and America wants its rights back.
But there is an exception to all this, right? Anatoly, Chevron, which is an American oil company, is still operating in Venezuela.
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Chapter 4: What are the implications of the U.S. seizing Venezuelan oil tankers?
And is the Trump administration's logic here that essentially by imposing what the president has called a blockade, by creating such terrible conditions inside Venezuela, the U.S. either prompts an uprising by the Venezuelan people or Maduro just voluntarily leaves and gives up power? Is that what they're after?
That is the calculation. In the last few weeks, we have seen Trump officials becoming increasingly explicit about their aims. Susie Biles, the White House chief of staff, said that the U.S. is going to keep blowing up boats until Maduro cries uncle. Kristi Noem, the Homeland Security secretary, said on Fox News that Maduro needs to be gone.
The calculation is that the economic pressure, economic pain, is going to make Maduro's hold on power untenable, but it's going to lead to an internal uprising, an internal coup by factions of the military that will ask him to leave or eliminate him.
And what's your sense of whether that will actually work? Because you, I know, are a student of Latin American history. The U.S. has been squeezing Maduro economically for years now. And Cuba, for example, has been under a U.S. embargo for more than a half century. The communist government is still holding on to power.
That's right. There are few historical precedents for when economic pressure leads to regime change. Governments adapt. And when economy shrinks, people become more dependent on the government, not less. Government is holding a bigger share of a shrinking pie. You know, I grew up in Russia.
There's an old Soviet anecdote, you know, a schoolgirl is walking home and stumbles upon her drunken father. And she says to him, Daddy, I heard that vodka is getting more expensive. Does that mean that you're going to be drinking less? And he goes, no, sweetie, it means you're going to be eating less.
Wow.
And I think this analogy applies well to Venezuela.
Wow. The Soviets really do have the best anecdotes. I'm also struck, Anatoly, by the obvious thing that happens when you squeeze a country economically, which is that people who are suffering try to leave it. They migrate, which is another thing the Trump administration really doesn't want to see happen, right?
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