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Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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From The New York Times, I'm Natalie Kittroff. This is The Daily. It was a chaotic weekend of news out of Washington. There was a shooting at an event where President Trump and top cabinet officials were gathered, which we're following and we'll update on later in the show.
And also, Trump abruptly and dramatically called off the latest round of peace talks with Iran at the very last minute, leaving the fate of the ceasefire in limbo. One of the main reasons Trump gave was that he doesn't think Iran is sending credible negotiators to the table and says he has no idea who's actually in charge of the country.
Today, my colleague Farnaz Fasihi takes us inside the world of Iran's leaders and explains what her reporting reveals about what they really want. It's Monday, April 27th. Farnaz, it's wonderful to have you back on the show. Thank you for having me, Natalie. So what do we know about what just happened, where we saw Trump suddenly back away from face-to-face negotiations with Iran?
It almost seemed like over the weekend, he kind of turned the team of American negotiators around as they were basically on their way to the airport.
We started this weekend thinking that Iranians and Americans were going to meet in Islamabad for a second round of negotiations. Iran's foreign minister went to Islamabad and the U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and President Trump's son-in-law Jared Kushner were scheduled to also fly to Pakistan on Saturday. And everyone anticipated that. another round of talks.
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Chapter 2: What triggered the abrupt cancellation of peace talks with Iran?
And I would hear, Sepah. Sepah. Sepah means the Revolutionary Guards. No one said the Ayatollah. No one said it's the supreme leader. And that was just such a difference to how things were done before the war, where the senior Ayatollah Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran for 37 years, always had the last word on all issues. decisions that were critical to the state.
And, you know, before the war, whenever I would ask who's making the decision, it would say, we're waiting for Mr. Khamenei to decide. We're waiting for him to say yes or no. And now it's the generals. Since the war started, a cohort of senior Revolutionary Guards generals have sort of taken over running and managing the war and running the country.
Okay, you're saying something that's actually pretty stark, which is worth just lingering on for a moment, which is that the Supreme Leader is not the one calling the shots here. And so I have to ask, when we say the Revolutionary Guards are, who are they? Who are we talking about?
The Revolutionary Guards are the most elite military force in Iran. They were created in the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution as sort of a line of defense for the regime. But over the past nearly half a century that the Islamic Republic's been in power, The Revolutionary Guards have expanded their reach and expanded their power.
When we here think about a military force, we think of people in uniform who are in military bases and making military decisions. But the Revolutionary Guards are all over the place in Iran. They hold key positions in the government. Many lawmakers, ministers, presidents have been former Revolutionary Guards.
The current Speaker of Parliament was leading the negotiations with the US as a commander of the Revolutionary Guards. The head of the National Security Council is a Revolutionary Guards commander. And they also have a big footprint in Iran's economy. They have a huge conglomerate in every economic sector from energy to transportation to even tourism that you can think of.
So they really are the parallel power in Iran. And now as a result of the war, they've become the dominant power.
That's fascinating.
You know, it's part of a pattern of the country becoming more and more militarized and the influence of the clerics fading.
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Chapter 3: Who are the current leaders in Iran after Khamenei's death?
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Farnaz, just explain why it matters that the power structure in Iran, as you just told us, is shifting to one where the military, the guards really hold all the cards and the clerics are secondary.
Well, for Iranians, it could be worse politically. It could be more repression if that's at all possible. Because we've seen the guards over the years, whenever there's a protest or uprising, take control of crackdowns and killings and crushing the protests. So it's very likely that dissent will be less tolerated, that there will even be more crackdowns.
But in terms of negotiations with the United States or the way that Iran might deal with the West, the guards could be more pragmatic than the clerics and their religious ideology.
Hold on. What? The military hardliners could be more pragmatic? How?
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Chapter 4: How has the Revolutionary Guards' role changed in Iran's leadership?
And he wants to say that the war forced Iran to capitulate. And Iran is absolutely adamant whatever deal it reaches, It's also able to save face. And a lot of, I think, the tension is now around this idea that how do we reach a deal where we don't look like we gave something that we weren't willing to give before the war as a result of the war?
Right. And part of the tension there is that President Trump also needs to be able to save face and message to the American public that he actually got something out of this war and that what he got was better than the deal that had already been achieved under Obama to restrict and cap uranium enrichment in Iran. So both sides are dealing with that face-saving impulse.
Exactly. Both sides are dealing with that. President Trump also needs to be able to say that I achieved something from this very unpopular war as well.
OK, let's talk about the Strait of Hormuz, the million dollar question on everybody's mind. Will things go back to normal in the Strait or does Iran and its leaders now see this as theirs to control as they see fit?
Iran and its leaders view the Strait of Hormuz as their territory. They've now discovered that they can control it, that they can even threaten ships by suggesting there are mines at the bottom of the seas. And of course, insurance companies are not going to risk it. And that alone will upend the global shipping and energy and economy. So they now have a tool in their disposal.
And they're trying to figure out how to monetize it because they've calculated that if they toll the ships that are passing through the Strait of Hormuz, they can make a lot more money than they do from their oil revenues.
Oh, wow. So even here, you see their pragmatism at work, looking for money-making opportunities, calculating the best way to do that. Farnaz? What about Israel? Because Israel's been this other major factor that's been affecting the negotiations. A potential Israeli attack is part of what's keeping the Ayatollah in hiding and really affecting the way the leadership works.
Are the guards assuming that Trump can keep Israel from waging the kinds of attacks that we've seen destabilize these negotiations? How do they view Israel in this?
They view Israel as a major threat that could still be a threat even after conventional war is over. Iran and Israel were engaged in a shadow war for many, many years that I've written about with my colleague in Israel, Ronan Bergman. Israel had assassinated multiple Iranian nuclear scientists and military commanders and done covert operations and attacks on military sites and nuclear sites.
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