A New Middle East?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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For decades, Israel has wanted the support of the U.S. in bombing the Iranian nuclear program. And for decades, every single U.S. president has said no.
I have always said that all options are on the table, but the first option for the United States is to solve this problem diplomatically. As I said before, military action would be far less effective than this deal in preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. Biden told Netanyahu the U.S. would not participate in any possible counterattack on Iran.
And then, last week, one President Donald Trump said yes.
Breaking news, and after days of uncertainty, the United States have completed three strikes on Iranian nuclear sites. It's mission accomplished for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who thanked President Trump today. Your bold decision to target Iran's nuclear facilities with the awesome and righteous might of the United States will change history.
Iran's response came in the form of a missile strike targeting Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in the Middle East.
Experts call this attack mostly symbolic. Qatar did get a heads up hours in advance.
seconds ago, the president went to Truth Social and typed this. It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a complete and total ceasefire.
The mutual ceasefire between Israel and Iran is now officially in effect, but it appears the terms might have already been violated this morning.
We basically have two countries that have been fighting so long and so hard that they don't know what the fuck they're doing. Do you understand that?
How much damage has been done? This is a real question. It's also a political question. The Defense Intelligence Agency has assessed that
the core components of Iran's nuclear program are largely intact and that Iran's nuclear program has essentially only been set back by months.
So why did Donald Trump say yes? And what are the long-term consequences of that decision going to be? My guest today is Aaron David Miller, who worked on negotiations and policy in the Middle East across four successive presidencies from 1985 to 2003. He's since written a number of excellent books on the peace process between Israelis and Palestinians and American leadership. And he's a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. And he joins me to talk through what all this has meant for a region that is in profound flux.
Aaron David Miller, welcome back to the show.
Great to be here with you, Ezra.
So we're speaking here on the morning of Tuesday, June 24th. Let's start with where your head is at. What are you confident the bombings achieved? What are your big points of uncertainty right now? Give me your overview of the landscape.
Yeah, you know, first of all, I don't believe in game changers, inflection points, sea changes and transformation. Most of what happens in life is transactional, whether it's marriage, diplomacy, business. And it certainly applies to the Middle East. Big changes have been afoot since October 7. And I would argue there are some headlines and trend lines that have never existed before. The first is Israel's escalation dominance, which I think is the most important thing that has happened since. And everything that we're now talking about, Ezra, flows from the notion that for the first time in its history, Israel controls the pace, the focus, the intensity of military conflict with its three key adversaries, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Iran.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:02
2
Why did President Trump finally approve U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear sites?
5:02–16:10
3
What does Aaron David Miller see as the immediate impact of the strikes on Iran’s nuclear program?
16:10–26:11
4
How does the concept of “escalation dominance” change Israel’s role in the region?
26:11–50:48