Can the Israel-Hamas Deal Hold?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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On October 9th, the Israeli government voted to ratify an agreement between Israel and Hamas, an agreement brokered by the Trump administration. By cutter? And by Turkey, that finally. Finally brings an end, hopefully. To the war between Israel and Hamas. This deal has already led to the release of the remaining Israeli hostages, 20 of them. They came home and an incredibly emotional thing to watch. There's a release of Palestinian prisoners, which has also happened, a cessation of hostilities, which has more or less happened. There is the bringing in again of much more help for Gazans who are starving, who are homeless, who have endured unimaginable suffering and devastation over the past two years, and an Israeli withdrawal further back from Gaza.
That is phase one. But the deal also has a phase two, a much more ambitious and ambiguous phase, where it is much easier to imagine a lot going wrong and things falling apart. But it also offers possibilities, maybe, that have not been on the table for some time. Rob Malley has been a middle east negotiator under President Obama. Андер президент Байден, а до президент Клинтон. He is the former president and CEO of the Crisis Group and a lecture now at Yale. Hussein Aga has been a negotiator on the Palestinian side, working under Arafat, under Abbas, and in many, many, both public and not so public, negotiations with Israelis and other stakeholders in the region.
The two of them together have written a fantastic new book called Tomorrow is Yesterday. It is a very up-close and personal history of how these negotiations played out and why they have failed over and over and over and over again. These are two people who have devoted their lives to trying to find a solution. And have emerged very realistic. Або хар андринг солюш то фане. As always, my email Ezra Kleinshow at my times dot com.
Businessaga, Rob Malley, welcome to the show. Thank you, Israel.
Thank
you. Rob, why don't we begin with you? Tell me about the ceasefire deal as you understand it.
So, you know, there's everything to criticize about the way the deal was brought about, the way its components. I mean, it was a deal that was done without real, you know, consultation with the Palestinians. It's a deal that seems to ask of the Palestinians to atone for the massacre of October seventh, but doesn't ask Israel to atone for the war that followed. It asks for the de radicalization of Gaza. It does not ask for the end. Of Israel's messianic uh uh tendencies. It's going to have every foreign intervention and how in the future of Palestinian governance. And it was authored by a president who, for months, gave all power to Netanyahu and to his government to lead the war the way they wanted to, to famish Palestinians.
So that's the backdrop. Plus, it has vagueness, it is full of contradictions. In terms of no no timetables, no arbiter, no way to go if there's a violation, as we've already seen in the last few days. And yet, having said all that, President Trump achieved what his predecessor was incapable or unwilling to achieve, which is an end to this awful, horrendous war and freedom for the Palestinians and the Israelis who had been held in detention. So And and hopefully also uh influx of humanitarian assistance. So that's the balance sheet.
Hussein, the deal has a stage one, which Rob describes somewhat there, the return, thankfully, of the hostages, release of Palestinian prisoners, an enduring, hopefully ceasefire, Israel pulling back.
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Chapters
5 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–5:31
2
What were the main achievements of the Israel‑Hamas cease‑fire deal’s Phase 1?
5:31–10:01
3
How does Phase 2 of the deal differ and why is it considered more ambiguous?
10:01–36:23
4
What role does Hamas play in the post‑war landscape and how might it evolve?
36:23–46:08
5
How have the Palestinian Authority and Fatah been positioned during the cease‑fire negotiations?
46:08–1:04:59