The Blue Wave Cometh?
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What did the recent off‑cycle elections reveal about the Democratic Party’s momentum?
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So before we begin today's episode, I'm recording another Ask Me Anything episode for New York Times subscribers soon. You can send your question to Ezra Kleinshow at nytimes dot com using the subject line AMA. We will consider anything in the inbox on or before the morning of Monday, November tenth. So write in soon.
So Democrats had a big night on Tuesday. They won in New York City, where Zoran Mamdani has been the big story of the political year. They won in Virginia, where Abigail Spanberger became the first woman to become governor of Virginia in that state's history. They won in New Jersey, a state where the polling had showed it unnervingly close for Democrats, but it turned out to not be close at all, and Mikey Sherrill won by double digits. They won in California. For Gavin Newsom's Prop 50, his mid-cycle redistricting to counter Texas, passed with at last I saw 65% of the vote, but it's California. We will be counting votes there forever. They won in Pennsylvania, where there were Supreme Court seats up for election.
They won in Georgia, in these very little-noticed statewide uh utility board seats. They just won everywhere. Everywhere. Every kind of voter moved towards Democrats. And where the polling had made it look like this was still a pretty mixed political moment, these results looked much more like the prelude to a wave election in 2026. Now, the counterargument is these were mostly in states that Kamala Harris had won: New Jersey, Virginia, New York, California. These were not the places where Democrats have been really struggling. But both sides are going to be looking at this election to try to take some big lessons for 2026 and even I think for 2028. So to help me parse Hope from Hopium, Fact from Fiction here, I am joined by my esteemed editor, Aaron Retica.
Hello. Aaron, welcome back to the show. Thanks, Ezra.
Let's start where you left off there. So if you are a progressive, there was much to be delighted by. If you are a moderate, there was much to be delighted by. If you are a Democrat, there was much to be delighted by, right? But already people are starting to say, no, no, no, no. This shows that moderation is the way to go. No, no, no, no, no. This shows that an aggressive left wing agenda will do it, right? A populist agenda. It seems though to show actually that simultaneously pushing both in different places. Are you saying the
Democratic
Party needs to be more things in more places,
Aaron?
Yeah. I mean there's different versions of this argument, right? Our our colleague Jamal Bowie makes a different version of this argument, but right, that the party has to be what it needs to be in each of its places, but that the overall coalition has to be pushing one way or the other. But like what so what do you draw out of what happened?
I have seen, so I wrote, people can go back and listen to it if they haven't yet, a piece about how Democrats beat Trump and Trumpism. And the the core point of that essay is that the problem Democrats have is they are not competitive in enough places right now. They nationally are pretty competitive. Uh the presidential popular vote is quite close election to election. But there are 24 states that Donald Trump won by 10 points or more. And if Democrats want power, Power in the Senate in any significant numbers ever again. They're going to need to be competitive in places where they used to be able to win elections, places like Ohio and Florida and Iowa and Nebraska and South Dakota and North Dakota, Alaska, but they've not really been competitive there for some time.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What did the recent off‑cycle elections reveal about the Democratic Party’s momentum?
0:00–7:19
2
How are Democrats interpreting the wins in New York, Virginia, New Jersey, and other swing states?
7:19–14:08
3
What lessons does Aaron Retica draw about the need for a national Democratic strategy?
14:08–21:58
4
How important is affordability policy (rent, childcare, utilities) for future Democratic victories?
21:58–29:38
5
What can the “anti‑MAGA” playbook look like – outreach versus resistance?
29:38–36:24
6
How is Governor Gavin Newsom shaping a new Democratic agenda on housing, climate and health?
36:24–42:54
7
Why do the concepts of anti‑cruelty and liberalism matter for rebuilding the Democratic coalition?
42:54–50:31
8
What practical steps can the party take now to knit together diverse voter groups for 2026‑2028?
50:31–1:00:41