Show notes
Every capital city fell last week, except one submarket. Melbourne units are the only market in the country Cotalit y has showing growth, and Lachlan Delahunty explains exactly why, plus a real portfolio breakdown showing what to sell and what to buy in this environment.
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For property owners, the danger isn't the fall itself. It's the cash buffer. Holding less than a 5% buffer puts you on a knife's edge the moment financial stress hits, because that's when banks start looking to reclaim properties. Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty argue that waiting 12 to 18 months in a downturn is the worst move available, buyer pools thin out and price haircuts of 30 to 40% become the norm, not the exception.
For anyone doing property investment in Australia, this is the numbers-first conversation most investors avoid right up until the bank forces it. We go city by city across the Australian property market: why Melbourne is the only capital improving on the four-week rolling average, what's dragging Brisbane, Sydney, Adelaide and Perth lower, why [Melbourne units] keep beating houses on the replacement cost argument, and how the shift away from auctions is changing how vendors negotiate in a soft market. Plus the difference between wholesale and retail unit purchases, how a 5.5%+ yield can turn a negatively geared property portfolio into one that pays for itself in the current interest rates environment, and what a pre-Christmas rate rise would do to prices into 2027.
What we cover in this Episode:
✅ Know your numbers before the market makes you: debt, true equity, debt-to-income and cash-to-debt
✅ Why a 2% cash buffer puts you one rate rise away from a forced sale, and the 10% floor that protects you
✅ Which regional assets go first, and what happens when investor demand leaves Townsville and Gladstone
✅ The FOMO-stage exit rule: why holding too long costs 30–40%, not 10–15%
✅ Selling with a tenant vs vacant, and which buyer pool you're actually pitching
✅ Commercial at 5.5%+ vs high-yield residential: which fits a cash-flow-negative portfolio
✅ Wholesale vs retail units: how buying a whole complex in one line lands a discount
✅ Why land exposure beats "air space" in a 200-unit tower
✅ Melbourne units trading $300K–$500K below replacement cost, and what that means for capital growth
✅ The two-speed economy and the 2009 playbook for what happens when rates fall
Timestamps:
00:00 Intro: the portfolio and the market update
04:00 A real composite portfolio, broken down
05:51 Which two properties to sell, and why
11:20 Sell now or wait, and with or without a tenant
15:52 What to buy instead: commercial or Melbourne units
16:47 Wholesale versus retail units explained
19:51 Melbourne units: the only market still growing
21:29 Auction clearance and the shift to private treaty
24:00 Units versus apartments: what to actually buy
29:42 The two-speed market and the rate outlook
About The Follio Property Podcast
Each week, Reece Beddall and Lachlan Delahunty break down the biggest conversations shaping Australian property. From market cycles to debt, strategy, data, and real-world insights — we make property simple, honest, and practical.
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Reece Beddall: https://www.linkedin.com/in/reece-beddall-294557b3/
Executive Producer: Jonathan Fernandes
https://www.linkedin.com/in/jonathan-fernandes-a75a991b2/
Disclaimer: This is for entertainment purposes - not financial advice. Speak to a qualified professional before making any financial or property decisions
Key Themes:
Australian property market | property investment Australia | property portfolio Australia | housing market Australia 2026 | property market update | investment property cash flow | cash buffer | debt to income ratio | Melbourne units | property market crash Australia
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