NATO, Britain and the middle powers
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
This episode of The General and the Journalist is brought to you by Team Orion. At a time where the world is increasingly uncertain, defense needs more than traditional logistics to face those challenges. It takes trusted data, rapid decision making, and operational resilience. That's where Tim Orion comes in. Strengthen defense readiness through integration. Combining the sovereign expertise of KBR, Unipart, and IBM, Teamuron delivers the decision-making power and support systems to sustain forces when the stakes are high. Discover how Team Orion is helping shape the future of defense readiness. Follow them on LinkedIn at Team Orion Defense. Vladimir Putin's war is in trouble. Military and economic pressure are mounting on him by the day.
Russia's oil refineries are being blitzed by Ukraine's deep strikes. Now, so are its all tankers. And Crimea, his prize trophy, is being squeezed with resupply routes cut off. If Putin is cornered, the fears are that he could lash out. So how might he do it? And
when? I'm Tom. And I'm Patrick. Welcome to The General and the Journalist. We're pleased to welcome Mark Galliotti back to the podcast. Mark is a historian, lecturer, and writer, and one of the best experts on modern Russia that we have. He's also a Sunday Times columnist and has his own excellent podcast called In Moscow's Shadows. Welcome back, Mark.
Great to be with you again. Mark, good to see you. The last time we spoke to you, it was in March, and it was discussed Putin's paranoia. We had a wonderful discussion about why he was lining the Kremlin walls with armed guards and turning off the internet in every city he could think of. It turns out in July he does have quite serious good reason to be paranoid. The reason being Ukraine's been pretty busy over the last few months, hasn't it, Patrick?
He has. I mean the thing that really caught my eye, uh, with the Ukrainians are a couple of really significant developments. So you remember that we spent quite a lot of time talking about how Ukraine has managed to achieve a functional defeat of the Black Sea Fleet without even having a navy. Well what they're now doing is to take that example and they're effectively fighting an air campaign without a conventional air force. And what this has allowed them to do is to fight almost as NATO would, where you try to achieve air superiority and you use your air force to strike Russia throughout their depth. I think we were talking about this this last week. So simultaneously hitting tactical targets on the battlefield, you know, operational level targets, what we might call air interdiction.
So these are the mid-range strikes. strikes and this is particularly pertinent when it comes to isolating Crimea.
What is the current state of the war in Ukraine and its impact on Russia?
And then the ones we're reading so much about, which is the sort of strategic bombing campaign, and that's hitting targets primarily related to economic warfare and and so on. And they've done all that without an air force. And what they've done is they've used unmanned systems to achieve it. So it it's a remarkable turnaround from where they were just two years ago, let al let alone four years ago.
It really is and the pace is picking up it it seems weep by weep day by day. So let's just update listeners on just how far Ukraine has gotten, how backwards Russia is going in all this. First there's a fuel crisis. Because and these numbers are absolutely amazing. The new Eurasian Strategy Centre report that Ukraine has struck at least twenty five different Russian oil refineries now. Thirteen of them, over half, are either partially or completely uh out of use. The Institute for Study of War report that Ukraine have hit ninety different Russian oil tankers, and that's the big new development of of the last week in the Sea of Azov. Uh over just an example.
It's an incredible number. I mean that's almost battle of Atlantic standards.
It is, and that is probably because there is a bottleneck at the Straits of Kerch going in and out of the Sea of Zov, going into the Black Sea. So they're just knocking them off.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–2:56
2
What is the current state of the war in Ukraine and its impact on Russia?
2:56–18:35
3
How is NATO adapting after the Ankara summit and what does it mean for the US role?
18:35–26:32
4
What are the strategic implications of Donald Trump’s involvement with NATO and Ukraine?
26:32–34:45
5
How is Britain’s defence strategy expected to change under the new prime minister?
34:45–41:38
6
What are the possible escalation paths Putin might take – vertical or horizontal?
41:38–42:39