Trump’s ‘Worst Case’ Scenario in Iran, and the Most Expensive Primary in U.S. History
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From The New York Times, it's the headlines. I'm Tracy Mumford. Today's Wednesday, March 4th. Here's what we're covering. The Times has learned Iran is on the verge of selecting its next supreme leader to head the regime after the U.S.-Israeli attacks killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei over the weekend. According to three Iranian officials, the frontrunner is Khamenei's son, Moshtaba Khamenei. He's an influential but reclusive figure known for his close ties to the country's revolutionary guards. One analyst in Tehran said that hardline supporters of Iran's government could back him quickly, viewing him as picking up the mantle of his martyred father. But a large portion of Iran could reject him for the very same reason, seeing him as a continuation of the oppressive regime that's killed thousands of anti-government protesters in just the last few months.
The clerics making the selection could announce their decision as soon as today. It comes after President Trump said yesterday that the U.S.-Israeli strikes had taken out some of the Iranian officials the White House had viewed as potential successors.
And now we have another group. They may be dead also. based on reports. So I guess you have a third wave coming in. Pretty sure we're not going to know anybody.
Trump did not say specifically who the U.S. wanted to see lead the country.
I guess the worst case would be we do this and then somebody takes over who's as bad as the previous person, right? That could happen. We don't want that to happen. It would probably be the worst.
What is the current situation regarding Iran's leadership after the U.S.-Israeli strikes?
You go through this and then in five years you realize you put somebody in who is no better.
In all, Trump seems to be distancing himself from any long-term plans for Iran, which analysts say adds a new level of uncertainty to the situation.
For years in Washington, we've heard about this maxim called the Pottery Barn Rule. You break it, you own it. As in, if the U.S. decides to start a war in a country, it's responsible for the consequences. But in the last few days, President Trump has made it clear that he does not believe in the Pottery Barn Rule at all.
My colleague Anton Troianovsky covers global affairs for The Times.
They've made it clear they believe that the U.S. has the right to attack any country, anywhere, if it believes that it's necessary in the name of American national security and American interests. And at the same time, they've made it clear that they don't see the U.S. as being responsible for what happens in those countries after military action. And of course, in the case of Iran, the risks of this are immense. The more the central authorities, the security forces in that country are weakened, the more infrastructure there is destroyed, the more you have the risk of either chaos and civil war or an even more repressive regime taking hold.
As of today, nearly 900 people have been killed in the fighting in the Middle East, the vast majority of them in Iran, which the U.S. and Israel have continued attacking. Iran has continued to hit back, striking targets all over the Gulf and choking off a key shipping lane for oil and gas, which has caused prices for those to surge, raising fears of widespread economic repercussions. Meanwhile, in Washington...
The answers are very unsatisfying. They have shifting goals, different goals all the time, different answers every day.
The Senate is expected to vote today on limiting the president's ability to continue to strike Iran, with Democrats saying the administration has failed to justify launching the operation without consulting Congress.
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