Focused group: Ukraine is now Europe’s war
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What is the current role of Europe in the Ukraine war after the US stepped back?
The Economist. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, whether stock markets can stomach the coming wave of giga IPOs, and our World Cup Contender Series continues with Iran. First up though.
I believe. The people of Europe understand very well that we must stand up against this cruel aggression.
March first, twenty twenty-two. The world was still digesting Russia's invasion of Ukraine, and Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, called it a moment of truth for Europe.
Yes, protecting our liberty comes at a price, but this is a defining moment, and this is the cost we are willing to pay.
Four years later, and the time has come to live up to that impassioned notion.
This is now Europe's war to manage for three reasons.
Tom Nuttle is our Chief Germany correspondent and Berlin Bureau Chief.
One is that America has disengaged, it's cut off financial aid, it's lost interest in diplomacy. The second reason is that the election in Hungary a few weeks ago got rid of Viktor Orban, who was the veto player inside the EU on things like sanctions and aid. And the third reason is that there's now a sense of diplomatic possibility because Ukraine has enjoyed some advances on the battlefield and with its deep strikes inside. inside Russia and there's some hope that that might be the beginning of a process that could see Vladimir Putin come to the negotiating table.
So it's in Europe's hands at last. What is the strategy here?
Well, the question is, is there a strategy or is there just a bunch of tactical muddling through? There are lots of things happening. Thanks to the ejection of Mr. Orban, the EU is about to begin dispersing the first tranche of a huge 90 billion euro loan to Ukraine, which will be used to fund its army and much more. There is chatter in European circles that it might be time to think. Think seriously about dispatching somebody or a group of people to talk directly to the Russians, which is a task that hitherto they have left to the Americans. And maybe most importantly, the discussion about Ukraine's bid to join the European Union, which is absolutely crucial for everybody from Vladimir Zelensky to a babushka in a village somewhere in
in the countryside. That is now gathering pace, but there are also signs of a gulf on that issue between Ukraine and its European partners.
Well let's start with the prospect of bringing mister Putin to the negotiating table as you mentioned. Would he want to?
Why does Tom Nuttall say Europe’s support for Ukraine is now a strategic necessity?
Is he ready to move any more than he has been for four years?
I think basically the answer to that is no, or at least there is not yet any sign of it. But one of the striking things in the last few weeks has been a flurry of chatter about possible names that the Europeans could send to negotiate with Mr. Putin. This actually began with a suggestion from Vladimir Putin himself, who a few weeks ago floated the name of Gerhard Schröder, the former German chairman. Chancellor, who of course is very close to Russia and has become a reviled figure in Europe. Now, that's obviously not going to happen, but some other names that were floated around, people like Angela Merkel, Mario Draghi. Now, I think people eventually realized that we were putting the cart before the horse if we were talking about names, before we began to think about what we wanted to negotiate and how we might be able to achieve it.
So that discussion has settled down for now. But it is certainly clear to me talking to people across Europe that there's now a readiness to think about this much more seriously than there was in the past. But the bottom line is that the sense in Europe is that it is not yet time for a serious negotiation with Vladimir Putin.
And what about the discussions that seem to be changing character as regards Ukraine's EU membership that again has been floating around for the entirety of the war?
This is crucial. If you go back to 2014, when you remember the Maidan revolution and Ukrainians swarmed that square in Kiev, carrying EU flags, ever since then, there's been a strong feeling in Ukraine that this is the destiny of the country to turn their back on Russia corruption, authoritarianism, and move towards the European Union.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the current role of Europe in the Ukraine war after the US stepped back?
0:03–3:11
2
Why does Tom Nuttall say Europe’s support for Ukraine is now a strategic necessity?
3:11–7:19
3
Is Europe ready to negotiate directly with Vladimir Putin and what names have been floated?
7:19–12:20
4
How is Ukraine’s EU accession process evolving and why is there a growing gulf with European partners?
12:20–14:35
5
What are the “giga‑IPOs” and why could they reshape the US stock market?
14:35–19:55
6
What risks do fast‑tracked IPOs pose for index funds and ordinary investors?
19:55–20:56