There Xi goes: visiting North Korea
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Economist.
Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Blore. Today on the show, life under rebel occupation in Congo and Japan's Indian restaurants are under threat.
But first
North Korea and its neighbor China have long been allies, but it's been seven years since Xi Jinping last visited Pyongyang.
Why did Xi Jinping decide to visit North Korea after seven years?
Yesterday he arrived in the capital to streets lined with supporters waving flags and letting off balloons. He and North Korea's leader Kim Jong-un planted a fir tree together to symbolize their enduring and evergreen friendship. Much of the world may be hoping Xi Jinping can rein in North Korea's nuclear ambitions, but Xi has other priorities.
Xi Jinping's last visit to North Korea was back in twenty nineteen, and at that time China, along with Russia, was actually helping the United States to put pressure on Kim Jong un to halt his nuclear weapons program.
Jeremy Page is host of Drumtower, our China podcast, and our chief China correspondent.
Today that is no longer a focus for Xi Jinping. He is much more worried about Russia's growing influence in North Korea and about preparing for another potential summit between Kim Jong un and Donald Trump.
So aside from welcoming crowds and displays of prowess, what are we actually going to get out of this visit between Xi Jinping and Kim Jong un?
I think there's going to be a lot of talk about the history of the relationship, fighting together in the Korean War, everything they've been through since. We're actually just approaching the sixty fifth anniversary of the signing of that mutual defense treaty back in nineteen sixty one. And so that's probably one of the reasons the visit is happening now. I think there'll be some talk about expanding economic links and transport links, more flights, perhaps more train journeys between the two. Possible there could be some mention of Chinese investment in North Korea, but I think in a way it's what we don't hear about which is more interesting because they're not going to be talking about Russian influence and they're not going to be talking about nuclear weapons.
What exactly is the state of North Korea's nuclear capability now?
What is the current state of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and how does China view it?
North Korea is understandably not very transparent about all of this, but international experts reckon that North Korea has about 50 to 60 warheads. And South Korean officials recently estimated that North Korea could create enough fissile material for an additional 10 to 20 warheads annually. We also know that Kim Jong-un has tested more than a dozen intercore. Continental ballistic missiles since twenty nineteen, which was the last summit with Donald Trump, which ended in failure. So we know that he's got a lot closer to developing the ability to deliver those warheads, maybe even as far as the continental United States. And it's pretty clear that he is determined to hang on to that nuclear arsenal.
In fact, just before Xi Jinping's visit, Kim Jong-un talked about expanding North Korea's nuclear weapons program. And in fact, just on the eve of Xi Jinping's visit, Kim Jong-un's sister who's also very powerful, declared that North Korea's nuclear arms status was irreversible. Kim Jongun has obviously been watching what's happened in Iran extremely closely and is no doubt feeling thoroughly vindicated in his decision to hang on to his nuclear arsenal rather than to negotiate some deal with the United States.
How does China and specifically Xi Jinping feel about North Korean nuclearisation?
I think Xi Jinping is still worried about it for a number of reasons. He's concerned that North Korea might threaten or even attack South Korea, one of China's biggest foreign investors and trade partners.
How is Russia’s growing influence in North Korea affecting China’s strategy?
China has long been concerned that if North Korea developed a fully fledged nuclear arsenal, then Japan and South Korea, which are both American allies, could acquire nuclear weapons of their own, which would not be in charge. Yeah. But I think he has concluded now that China cannot use its leverage to convince Kim Jong-un to give up his nuclear arsenal without risking total economic collapse there.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:03–0:54
2
Why did Xi Jinping decide to visit North Korea after seven years?
0:54–2:54
3
What is the current state of North Korea’s nuclear arsenal and how does China view it?
2:54–4:31
4
How is Russia’s growing influence in North Korea affecting China’s strategy?
4:31–8:25
5
Who are the M23 rebels and why have they retaken Goma?
8:25–10:29
6
What tactics does M23 use to claim legitimacy and control mineral wealth?
10:29–13:25
7
What are the humanitarian and human‑rights conditions for ordinary Congolese under M23 rule?
13:25–15:14
8
Why are Indian‑style curry restaurants in Japan facing a new visa crackdown?
15:14–24:20