What price victory? Ukraine on the front foot
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Why is Ukraine now showing momentum on the battlefield?
The Economist. Mm-hmm. Hello and welcome to the intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. Today on the show, how Home Depot is America's housing market bellwether, and the supply chain choke point for cricket bats.
But first
The latest news from Ukraine paints a brutal picture of Russian intent. Missile and drone strikes on Kyiv over the weekend were among the worst of the war. Yesterday the Kremlin warned of more. Consistent systematic strikes on the military industrial complex. as opposed to the many civilian targets from the weekend. This is not the aggression of an invading force finishing the job. It seems more like the recklessness that comes with being on the back foot. Ukraine at last is doing more than surviving. There's more hope on the ground than there has been in some time. But if victory comes, at what cost will it come for the body politic?
Things have not looked this good for Ukraine. For some time.
Oliver Carroll is our Ukraine correspondent.
A bitter winter has now given way to a story of momentum. But as Saturday's mass strike on Kyiv showed Russia still remains a brutal adversary. The question still for Ukraine is how long its strategic reserve, its people and its resources. can sustain the battle.
How have new Ukrainian defence strategies and extended‑range drones shifted the war?
And even if it can What kind of country can survive?
So just give us a snapshot for the moment how Ukraine is doing on the battlefield, Ali.
The news from the front line is very promising. Ukraine is basically now inflicting casualties on Russia. At rates faster than Russia is replacing. To give you an example, training for the at most elite assault units is now down to basically ten days. Usually it would be several months. Ukraine reckons fifty thousand is the absolute ceiling of Russia's training capacity. I mean to make it more would require structural changes which you just can't bring about quickly. Now already it's showing thirty five thousand wounded and killed per month. And Russia has far less to show for these numbers than at any time before. I was speaking to uh presidential advisor, Brigadier General Pavlo Palisa, and he was saying that they're at least two years behind what are already scaled back timetables for taking the rest of Donbass, which I find listeners is the main political and military aim of Vladimir Putin at this point.
So what's changed? Why this period of momentum and success on the battlefield?
Well, I think it's a combination. First of all, Russia were basically front loading an awful lot of their attacks in an attempt to show their might on the Ukrainian side, there's a new team at the Ministry of Defence. And that's really turbocharged the change in the last few months there. More broadly, really key at the moment is the success they're having in extended range drone operations. And by that I mean On the one hand, what we'd call intermediate range between twenty kilometers up to a couple of hundred kilometers. And that's really hitting Russian supply lines, radars, ammunition dumps, and so on. And then we're looking at also Great success going thousands of kilometers inside Russia, hitting its defense industries, particular targets in the oil and gas industry.
What role is fresh European financial support playing in Ukraine’s war effort?
I've been speaking to commanders in charge of these units and they predict a full-on air defense crisis for Russia by the autumn. And by that point, it's anticipated that Ukraine's own ballistic program will be in line with And it's going to get very ugly in Russia. Ukraine's also benefiting from new lines of European cash. Now remember up until the departure of Viktor Orban, there was a big question mark as to whether there would be consensus in the EU. Well that's gone, and his departure's cleared the way for a long promised ninety billion.
But as you say this hasn't been, this won't be at no cost to Ukraine.
Yes, and I mean the strikes on Saturday, Sunday morning really shows just the vulnerabilities which remain in Ukraine. And this has been one of the tensions actually playing out in the leadership. There have been different camps. Those who basically say that Ukraine can benefit from a longer war.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Ukraine now showing momentum on the battlefield?
0:03–2:00
2
How have new Ukrainian defence strategies and extended‑range drones shifted the war?
2:00–4:00
3
What role is fresh European financial support playing in Ukraine’s war effort?
4:00–5:54
4
How is domestic politics and public morale affecting Ukraine’s chances of victory?
5:54–8:21
5
Why is Home Depot considered a bellwether for the U.S. housing market?
8:21–10:34
6
What factors are causing the current gridlock in U.S. and U.K. housing markets?
10:34–12:59
7
How are high mortgage rates and homeowner loss aversion shaping market activity?
12:59–15:23
8
Why are English willow trees and supply chains crucial to the cricket bat market?
15:23–18:25