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Chapter 1: What recent performance trends are impacting the Rockets' trade deadline strategy?
Rockets fans, welcome to the Rockets LaunchPod, an exclusive podcast from the home of the Rockets. Sports Talk 790. Red Nation, get ready. The Rockets LaunchPod starts now. Welcome aboard. Welcome in to another new episode of the Rockets LaunchPod presented by ClutchFans.
I'm Ben DuBose, he's Paolo Alves, and tonight we're going to be discussing the recent results for the Rockets, as well as the potential implications for the NBA's in-season trade deadline of this Thursday at 2 p.m. Central. So a couple housekeeping items off the top. If this episode sounds a bit less polished than usual, we're doing only very minimal editing.
We're recording this on Tuesday night, the 3rd of February, and the deadline is only about 40 hours away on Thursday afternoon. So the longer we take to get this out, the more time there is for something we say to get outdated. And even if it's not that, there's just less time for our audience to find and listen to the episode before the deadline if we wait.
Also, I'm traveling this week, so I can't guarantee that my hotel Wi-Fi connection is as good as it usually is at home. I hope it is, but no promises.
Chapter 2: How do injuries to key players affect the Rockets' playoff chances?
I will promise that we will have better production value in future episodes once I'm back in Houston and things are less time sensitive. And then one last disclaimer, Paolo and I are going to have a three-way postgame show with Dave Hardesty of Clutch Fans on Saturday afternoon once that nationally televised Rockets Thunder game is completed.
We'll post that episode here on this podcast channel, but you can also listen live on the Clutch Fans YouTube page. And then on that show, beyond just reaction to that game, we'll also have reaction to the trade deadline since it will have officially passed only about 48 hours before.
So we're going to try and be a bit quicker today in this preview show, and then we can follow up with some more analysis after the fact to try and add more context as to what does or doesn't happen. All right, with disclaimers out of the way, let's get into today's show. The good news is what's happening on the basketball court.
The Rockets, they've won their last three games over Atlanta, Dallas, and Indiana. That's improved them to 31-17 on the year, and they're actually 8-2 in their last 10 games. If you look at the top eight seeds in the West as of Tuesday, that 8-2 mark from the Rockets is at least two games better than every other team in the top eight over that span.
So Houston's definitely making up some ground in the standings. They are still number four in the West, but they're now tied in the loss column with the Nuggets and only a game back of the Spurs. Houston has fewer games played than most teams, but that is going to change in the near future.
The Rockets have a home back-to-back this week against the Celtics and Hornets on Wednesday and Thursday, and then they bet another one next week against the Clippers. So, for better or for worse, the total of overall games, that's about to catch up.
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Chapter 3: What are the potential trade options for the Rockets as the deadline approaches?
But as far as the key takeaways from their recent play, on the balance, you shouldn't ever complain about winning 80% of your games in a decent-sized sample. Keep in mind, the Rockets were just coming off a stretch where they went 10-10 in 20 games. So it's definitely improved. They're playing harder on defense, which you know Ime Udoka loves. They're executing better in close games.
Jabari Smith Jr., he's bounced back after going through that deep slump in early January. There's lots of good signs. But with all that said, there is at least a small sense of unease with the fan base, and I understand why. It's not about the amount of games they've lost lately. I think it's about how they've lost.
Because since the middle of January, you had two home games against the top two seeds in the West, the Thunder and the Spurs, and they both followed a very similar formula. Both were there for the taking, entering the fourth quarter, and then you just couldn't generate any sort of half-court offense at all when it truly mattered.
And then in between those games, you also lost at Philadelphia when you led by eight with about five minutes left and seven with about three minutes left. And it was a very similar story.
Now, I'm not saying the Sixers are to the level of the Thunder or the Spurs, but when they have Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid both playing, both healthy, and especially at home, I do think they're a very good team.
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Chapter 4: How does Kevin Durant's presence influence the Rockets' decisions?
And so for me, I wasn't, I wouldn't call myself angry in the aftermath of those games because to me, they were understandable losses. You know, it wasn't like when the Rockets choked away big leads this time a month or so ago to the Kings and the Pelicans, and it felt like you just weren't trying hard enough and you sort of disrespected the game.
Those were games that I was livid after because the Rockets just let all of us down. And I think they would admit that they let themselves down. No, and these, they were trying and they just got out-executed. It happens. But it was at the same time very sobering that on nights when you knew the Rockets were dialed in, they simply weren't good enough. That's at least how it felt to me.
And I think that's especially the case because deep down entering this season, at least after they lost Fred Van Vliet to the torn ACL in September, we've all had a very similar fear. that underlying sense of dread, what's going to happen with the half-court offense when you really need to score against Dowden opponents. And it dates back to last season because that's what held the Rockets back.
They were very good to even great defensively, but they were mediocre on offense at best and worse than that in the half court. Now, in the offseason, you did add Kevin Durant. But then once you subtract the floor general and Fred, some of those fears are going to start to creep back in. You don't have a point guard, a floor general to get you organized.
Chapter 5: What concerns do fans have about the Rockets' recent losses?
And then you look at the coaching. Ymir Djokovic, it's proven he's an elite defensive coach. I think that's safe to say, but offensively, at least to this point, it's a little more of a mixed bag. And then last week, we also got the bad news that Steven Adams, he's out for the year with his severely sprained ankle, which did end up requiring surgery.
We've talked a lot on this show about how important Steven is as a floor raiser on defense, but he also helps really steady your offense with how elite he is at offensive rebounds and giving you second, third, even fourth opportunities.
So relative to the formula that we thought this team had when this roster was put together last offseason, when you brought back most of the rotation aside from Dylan Brooks and Jalen Green, well, now if you take out both Fred and Steven and DFS is still a partial participant, it's a pretty big hit to the formula.
And then if you end up losing to the two top teams in the West in much the same way by not generating enough offense... It's unsettling. I get it. And so you flash forward to this week when we're a couple of days from the trade deadline. And in theory, it's exciting. In theory, it's a chance to address any deficiencies that your roster may have.
But then you also have to balance that if you're Rafael Stone. you have to consider not just this season, but next season and future years and the blueprint for what they hope is a sustainable contender led by the likes of Amin Thompson, Alperin Shungun, and Reed Shepard.
So there's a lot that goes into it, and we'll try and unpack it not just on today's show, but our deadline recap later in the week as well.
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Chapter 6: What factors should the Rockets consider for future seasons?
Anyway, Paolo, I'll bring you in here. The results have definitely improved the past couple of weeks. Nobody can deny that. But there's also that sense of unease with the way they've lost some of those bigger games. And now knowing that neither Fred nor Steven is coming back to rescue you. Well, I guess Fred still theoretically could, but I think you take that as a bonus if he somehow does.
You certainly don't set it as the expectation. Just overall, Paolo, how are you feeling about this specific team and its ultimate potential, given the results of the last couple of weeks and as we head into the final hours before the trade deadline?
Yeah, I think it's tough, and I think it kind of ties into each other, which is, well, how much of a contender can you truly be when you have what's effectively now, assuming Friday doesn't come back, 40 million worth of guys that are not going to come back? And to be fair, this team was built with a lot of depth and with the perspective that, well, perhaps not these guys.
These guys were not the ones that were expected to be injured. Like, they built a lot of depth on the wings because, you know, KV is 37 and he has been kind of injury prone in the last few years. Tari is obviously coming off of two rough years due to injury. And they had a lot of, I guess, a bigger kind of security blanket when it comes to those positions.
But still, even as a deep team, right, the guys that they did lose are guys that bring stuff that nobody else could bring.
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Chapter 7: How does the buyout market impact the Rockets' roster decisions?
Like, if he lost, our Eason would have been rough, but starting with Vinny Smith, assuming he plays a little bit better deep, I haven't shown it yet, but in theory, you could, you know, you know, you could get 80% of terrorism without Anthony Smith. Stephen Adams to a lesser extent than Fred, but Capella doesn't give you 80% of Stephen Adams.
He gives you like 50, you know, on a good night, like Quint, just...
different type of player, you know, the offensive rebounding still, that he still gives you some of that, obviously not to the same extent, but the connective passing that Stephen Adams did, the insane screen setting that Stephen Adams gave you, that seemingly great touch around the rim that Stephen Adams seems to have, or seems to have now, the free throw percentage, you know, Clint's at a point that, like...
wholly unconfident that he can make any shot that's not a dunk at this point like he tries water sometimes he tries some cook shots layups or stuff but like that's not much there offensively and so he's very very much of a lesser version of Adams but way more than if we lost one of our one of our wings And Fred, what we know Fred is, we don't have a replacement for him.
Rich Shepard can bring it to some extent, but he's a rookie, he's inconsistent. Not a rookie, he's a second-year player. He's inconsistent, still a young player. And so it just seems like losing 40 mil worth of your cap space for this year, worth of players, at very key, irreplaceable positions,
kind of puts a little bit of a ceiling on what your team can be, especially so when it's not like this is, you know, the NFL of this year, where you don't have Mahomes or you don't have any super teams and everybody's kind of on an equal footing heading into the postseason. The Thunder are still there.
The Thunder are, you know, they're not fully healthy because Jalen Williams is out, but they're going to be fully healthy once the postseason comes along. The Spurs will see how this deadline shapes them up, but they seem to be, you know, on an upwards trajectory.
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Chapter 8: What conclusions are drawn about the Rockets' strategy moving forward?
But I do think the Spurs and the Nuggets are kind of on the same level as the Rockets, even without Fred and Steven Adams. I think we can put up a fight. But really, how... Really, how competitive do we expect to be over a seven-game playoff series when we're playing the Thunder without those two guys?
And that frames what we've seen thus far, and it frames kind of my thoughts going to the deadline, which is... Well, I guess I'm okay if you want to, you know, spend a couple of second-round picks and trade a guy like Clint Capella or Donny and Vinnie Smith for a guard, like plenty of people on Twitter want to do.
So, like, you know, if the investment is two second-round picks and the potential and the loss of an asset, or the loss of what could be an asset, Donny and Vinnie Smith, and someone who I don't think is an asset, just neutral like a contract in Capella, I'm willing to give that up to give this team a better shot.
But I don't think that's going to push us over the line and turn us into tier one contenders or a team that you could realistically think is going to beat the Thunder in the seven game series now while that things have happened. But you don't bank real assets on a while that things have happened shot at winning a championship.
Yeah.
So, yeah, looking at the past few games, you know, it just seems like this team, like, they're winning now. That's cool. I think they're winning more than what they should be winning, just like they were losing more than what they should be losing a couple, like, 10 games back when everybody was in crisis mode.
Well, we lost some games that we could have won, you know, a couple of bounces ago a different way, and we win. I think this time the opposite is happening as well for this, you know, stretch of 10 games where we won 8 plus 2. So, all in all, just to say that those variations come and go, it just seems like the eye test doesn't lie.
And you look at this team and you watch this team play, and it feels like they can play up or down to the competition level of basically any team. Like, they don't beat teams convincingly. Like, you're playing the Pacers without Thaddeus Halliburton, like, clear tanking team. and they hung on for a very long time. Granted, you didn't have KD, but you do have an amazing game from Operational Noon.
That game should not have been particularly close. And it's not like it's a one-game thing. It's been a trend throughout the entire season. This team just plays down the competition. And then they don't strike now as a truly elite team.
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