The Last Word On US: Trump Gives Iran 'Last Chance' On Peace Deal
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Okay, let's move on then. It's time to talk all things America, as always. Cal Thomas and Mary McKeown are with us. But first, let's bring in Scott Lucas, Professor of International Politics at UCD, to discuss the current state of play in the war in Iran. Scott, where are we now in relation to this? Because the conflicting messages continue. Donald Trump says negotiations are underway. Iran says that's not the case.
What immediate context did the hosts set for Trump’s ‘last chance’ message to Iran?
Who should we believe?
I think it's best to put the rhetoric on both sides to the side and establish what we do know. The first thing here is that about 11 days ago, we know that the Trump administration was considering really going back to war with Iran by expanding its airstrikes inside the country, and it backed away from that. It backed away from that because at a retreat at Camp David in Maryland, the military told them, if you hit Iran, they'll hit back. They'll retaliate across the Gulf states and possibly Israel, and we don't have enough air defense interceptors. The military also said, look, we're running out of targets in Iran to hit. You know, we've hit them for more than five months. The regime still hasn't surrendered.
If you expand, you would have to hit civilian infrastructure, and then you're at risk of a war crime. On top of that, you had the economic effects of going back to that war, which would have been a spike in gasoline prices, oil and gas prices. with a knock-on effect before the U.S. election in November. And you also would have had the effect that the Gulf states would be further rattled by this. And indeed, the Saudi Arabia leader, the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, told Trump last Wednesday, we don't want you doing this. On top of all of that, 70% of Americans don't like the war, don't want the war. So all of that meant that for all of Trump's bluster that we headed into last weekend for, he was going to hit Iran, bigger than World War II.
He was going to destroy them. It was all effectively bluster, which of course dissipated before the markets opened on Monday morning. That leaves us with, Frank, just to give you the key of what I'm watching is, the direct talks between Iran and the United States have not been reestablished yet. The Americans really walked away from those talks when they walked away from the memorandum of understanding that they signed in June. The key talks have been between Iran and the Arab country, the Gulf state, Oman. That's over control of the Strait of Hormuz because Iran is to the north of that strait, Oman is to the south. Iran, if it can get an agreement with Oman on the management of the strait, then effectively have the Trump folks in a box, which is, look, you have to negotiate on the basis that we've agreed this with Oman
You can't wriggle out of this as you did with the memorandum of understanding. I do think we're going to get back to talks. In fact, we've got clues today. Scott Besant, the U.S. Treasury Secretary, all of a sudden saying, oh, a deal is close, a deal is close.
Why does Professor Scott Lucas say the US backed away from expanding airstrikes on Iran?
Marco Rubio saying, well, I'm hopeful. I'm hopeful that we are progressing in the talks, which indicates that Iran and Oman have sort of set the agenda with these specific talks on the Strait of Hormuz, and that it is sort of bringing the Americans back to the Trump administration's back to their only alternative, which is they've got to negotiate again.
Cal, can I get your thoughts on this? How hopeful are you of meaningful talks? Because Donald Trump says the waterway could reopen within hours. Yesterday, he also said that new negotiations will be Iran's last chance for a decent deal. How unhelpful are those continued threats, especially when he doesn't see them through?
Well, first, I think Professor Lucas's analysis is spot on. I couldn't disagree with any of it. But I'm reminded of this old song, which I think applies to Donald Trump way before your time, Frank, and probably you too, Marion.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:38
2
What immediate context did the hosts set for Trump’s ‘last chance’ message to Iran?
0:38–3:10
3
Why does Professor Scott Lucas say the US backed away from expanding airstrikes on Iran?
3:10–4:45
4
How did military, economic and regional concerns influence US decision‑making on Iran strikes?
4:45–11:59
5
What role do Oman‑mediated talks over the Strait of Hormuz play in potential US‑Iran negotiations?
11:59–17:13
6
How do panelists assess Trump’s ‘last chance’ rhetoric and prospects for meaningful negotiations?
17:13–17:43
Speakers
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