Trump Gets CRUSHING NEWS from Final Polls (with Simon Rosenberg and Tom Bonier)
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What do the early‑vote numbers reveal about Republican performance on election eve?
I'm joined by Tom Banyer of Target Smart, Simon Rosenberg of the Hopium Chronicles, you know, the best data guys in the game going through early voting patterns, helping us understand the polling out there. Let's start with you, uh Tom Bonier. Tell us what's the state of play one day before the election.
Yeah, I mean, so here we are on the eve of the big day. We've got a lot of early votes in. About 78 million votes have been cast. We know, you know, compared to where we were four years ago, which is the baseline everyone has been using here with all the caveats that we're all pretty well aware of, that means total turnout is down about 13%. Now, we shouldn't take that as a sign of less intensity and enthusiasm. Enthusiasm, what we're taking that as sign of is what we expected to be the case that many people would be shifting back to election day voting. Now, what I'm struck by just high level when I'm looking at the early vote data is just really the colossal Republican failure and what they've been telling us they were going to do for months and months now for uh the the the
resources they have supposedly invested, the people they've brought in, like Elon Musk, to get their voters out early. We know that Democrats dominated the early vote four years ago. Republicans said they recognized the error and they were going to get their voters out before election day this time around in bigger numbers. Well again, overall turnout is down sort of across the board early. But what What I'm struck by is just how much this early vote electorate resembles that 2020 electorate. That twenty twenty early vote electorate where Democrats won so easily. You have minor differences state to state. There are some states where Democrats are actually doing better than they were in twenty twenty.
Uh some states where Republicans are doing really incrementally, and we're talking about tenths of a percent uh better. But demographically, you still have those same giant gender gaps, again, with just tenths of a percentage point differences. Some states like North Carolina, where the gender gaps are bigger than they were at this point in 2020, uh, some where they're incrementally smaller. Uh, and you know, if we test the Republican theory of the case of how they were going to win, bringing out a bunch of young men, bringing in new registrants, it's not showing up in the early vote. They have Haven't done it. They get another bite at the apple tomorrow on election day, but uh you know, they have to get a failing grade for what they've done in the early vote so far.
So, Tom, they've invested all this money, all this outreach in trying to get the early vote. That's a lot of what Elon Musk was doing. But what you're saying is that's not showing in the data that they've had any effect after making that their number one priority. Is that fair to say? Absolutely. Uh Simon, going to you right now, let me just uh let me just give you this data point as well, the new Maurist NPR poll that came. came out uh a little bit ago, has Vice President Kamala Harris up fifty one percent to forty seven percent. That's their uh final. Let let me toss it over to you with and it's once again.
Yeah, two two key points. One is that the what we saw in polling this week. So, first of all, the vice president had her best battleground state polling of the election in the last five or six days. And if the campaign's argument is that Um, that the M the Madison Square Garden event sort of repulsed a lot of voters, excuse me, and it broke through into the electorate. And that it helped accelerate. late deciders voting moving towards us and that we're winning sort of the late decider vote. You would see that if that's true, right? You would see that in two places. One is you would see it in polling. And we are seeing it in polling. I mean, what you're seeing in many of these battleground state polls, not all of them, but again, you know, there's always variants, is that we're seeing Harris getting to a higher end of the band.
She's getting she got to six in Wisconsin at one pole.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What do the early‑vote numbers reveal about Republican performance on election eve?
0:00–12:13
2
How does the new Maurist/NPR poll show Kamala Harris leading Trump among men and women?
12:13–16:19
3
Why are gender gaps and senior‑voter surges crucial for the 2024 outlook?
16:19–21:33
4
What does the surge in Republican‑funded betting markets indicate about their strategy?
21:33–23:29
Speakers
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