Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
No fluff, just facts and fierce debate. The Mike Hosking Breakfast with Defender. Embrace the impossible.
News Talks at B. Morning and welcome today.
Day one in Beijing has not been feel about it. Air New Zealand's boss on job cuts and big losses. Dave Rennie is in for a word about winning this morning. Tim and Katie after eight. Of course, Richard Arnold stateside Murray Olds.
Chapter 2: What is the significance of the Trump and Xi Jinping meeting in Beijing?
He's always awesome. Seven past six.
Chapter 3: What are the financial challenges faced by Air New Zealand?
Welcome to the day. Is Chris Hipkins missing a gene or does he have a self-destructive predilection or is he just a pillock by nature? So he rolls into Auckland yesterday to tell the nation's biggest city and engine room in election year that she's all good.
Chapter 4: What changes are being made in the All Blacks coaching staff?
Everyone's moved on from lockdowns, his lockdowns. the home handyman from the hut, telling Auckland what's what. What an arrogant twat.
Chapter 5: What are the highlights from the week's news and events?
He was in Auckland to build rapport, to patch up the damage, to scope the joint, to see what sort of changes party is, chances party has got come November. Love or hate Auckland, elections are won and lost in the city. Of course, no one gets to government without a good day in Auckland, even for a small country.
It is true to say there are countries within countries or cultures and vibes within cultures and vibes. It took me a while, for example, to get a grip on Wellington before I moved there. It's different to Christchurch, it's different to Dunedin, and Auckland is different to each of the other urban centres. Chris Bishop, I think, has found that out by suggesting the two million home debacle.
He's from Wellington as well. If you're too entrenched in Wellington, you don't get Auckland. Hipkin suggested the only people who ever ask him about lockdown these days is ZB. Two things there. One, that's not true. And yesterday was an example, given the person who asked him wasn't from ZB. And two, ZB is the biggest game in Auckland and by a long way.
Dismissing the biggest radio player in Auckland, and indeed the country, is about as stupid as saying Aucklanders have moved on from lockdown. Ultimately, it's another example of why I've said all year that this election is over before it even starts. Labour will not win. The pain, suffering and incompetence of 2020 through 2023... is still too raw, real and recent to forgive and forget.
And making it worse is the fact the very same people who did the damage are still there waiting for another crack. And judging by yesterday, they've learned nothing, want to learn nothing, are as arrogant as last time, and Hipkins may well realise that come election night when he loses and inevitably has to resign, given he will have lost twice.
News of the world in 90 seconds.
She's unfolding at pace in Downing Street. Yes, streeting has quit. What we've seen today is a brave and principled decision by Wes. He is a great and huge talent in our party, has been a great asset to the government, has made an incredible transformation to our NHS, but has taken the principled decision to leave the government to say what we're doing is not good enough. But here's the twist.
He most likely isn't the bloke who's going to run against Starmer. Could it be Angela Rayner?
I want to deliver as part of the team, and I've always said that it is a team effort. It's not one person, it's not a presidential situation. We all have to pull together to deliver that.
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Chapter 6: How is the New Zealand housing market performing?
Walsh, though, quickly, if you missed it yesterday, Kevin, Trump's man for the Fed, he got through 54-45. That was long party lines, of course. Good news for Starmer, and God, he needs some, doesn't he? The GDP print came out overnight, 0.6%, which is fairly anemic, but nevertheless, it is growth. 0.6% GDP for the first quarter. It's 11 past six.
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Just being reported that Starmer, or the committee at least, will not be blocking Burnham this time around to stand in the by-election, so that's just unfolding as we speak. Cuba, by the way, has just announced that they've got no energy left, basically. They've got a small amount of natural gas that's theirs, but as far as the rest of it, critical, it's all gone.
There is no petrol, there is no oil, and things are quote-unquote extremely tense. Fifteen past six. Your partner's Andrew Callaghan, morning. Now, what do we make of the migration numbers 24-24-7? So we've got some growth. That ain't what it was, was it? Now, apparently he's fallen off. Sanford, I can tell you, though, has had a very good result.
We'll get that out of the way before we find Andrew. 24.6% up, so Sanford are good, so that's a good local story. Cisco, if you want to talk internationally, as far as markets off to the races this morning, the American markets are off to the races. Cisco, better than expected, report new networking switches and routers. They're all about AI and computers and competition.
Their revenue, $15.84 billion, so they're going very nicely. Thank you. Yeah, let me, while I've got a moment, just let me give you the story on Burnham. So we've got a by-election. This is how it works. And we've explained it several times this week so far. But Andy Burnham is not an MP. So he's the one who will make a difference, allegedly, according to Rod Little.
If there's one person who can make a difference in the Labour Party and might well justify getting rid of Starmer, it is Andy Burnham. He was blocked from a by-election. This time he won't be. Markerfield is the electorate. It's in the north of England. It's been held by Labour since 1906.
But the modelling this morning, given the reform story, is that even in a by-election, Burnham may not win it. So in five weeks they have a by-election. Burnham doesn't win it. Then where are they? You can't make this up. It is a mess beyond a mess beyond a mess. Right, we fixed whatever was broken. Andrew, how are you? I'm very well, thanks, Mike. Good indeed. 24-24-7.
So what do we make out of those migration numbers?
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Chapter 7: What are the implications of immigration policies in New Zealand?
A 10-year average for permanent long-term migration is 49,000. So we're somewhere beneath that. But if you take a longer period and you go back and include the early 2000s, that average sits at 31,000. And if you sort of annualize the last few months, so you look at the current trend, we're pretty much there. So we're pretty much getting back to what's a sort of a normalized situation.
Look at the source of migrants, still very much an Asian focus, China, Philippines, India, Sri Lanka. The China numbers look robust. They lifted for the 12 months versus the 12 months to March 25. Those other countries sort of tailing off a little bit. It's kind of hard to get a handle on sort of what's the impact of the Middle East conflict is going to be on migration.
I mean, I think this global uncertainty could help Kiwis here, but traditionally our employment market, that's been a factor. It's not very strong at the moment.
confidence is low but you know it feels like we are a safe port in a turbulent world yet the bottom line though is we're moving back to a more sort of normal migration situation that button like what we do have to do is look at the tourism numbers because I think they look pretty good it's one of the big tailwinds for our economy what I agree and tourism is coming back it's going well three point one three million visitor arrivals and
That's 300,000 more than March 25. So March 26, we're 95%-ish back to pre-COVID. So I think that looks pretty good. Still dominated by tourists from Aussie and the US, though. I don't care where they come from as long as they spend. She's flat. Those sales are down. I mean, 7.9 is significant. That's material, isn't it?
Yeah, look, we've got to try and find a positive take on some of these numbers at the moment. What I would say here, Mike, it's still a great market for first-home buyers. Yeah, look, it looks quiet. Subdued is a good descriptor. Sales year-on-year down 7.9%. Look, there is month-on-month volatility there, but longer-term sales are down. House price index price is down 0.9% year-on-year.
They're 16% below the peak. Of course, your factor in inflation, that's a bigger number. The hot spot though, Mike, Southland taking the lead. Prices up 8% a year, and you've got to be in Southland at the moment. It's leaving Canterbury behind. It's only up 3%. Auckland and Wellington still look kind of soft. down 2.8%, 2.5% respectively.
Look, I would say, though, that that house price index, it's stabilised in recent months, so I don't think it's getting any worse. Lots of regional variation in the numbers. You know, those Auckland sales were down almost 15% outside of Auckland, down around 5%, so quite strong regional variation. My inventory is still very high.
I think if you sort of take a step back and you say, well, interest rates, they're not going down, Unemployment, well, it's higher than it has been. You've got an election coming. You've got weak consumer confidence. I don't think we're going to see much in the way of house price growth this year. I think we've got to wait. We've got to wait. It's not happening just yet. I need some numbers.
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Chapter 8: What are the recent developments in Australian politics?
93.63 Japanese yen. Gold, $4,679. And Brent crude, $4,679. still holding up $105.88. You have the best of weekends. Andrew Callagher, Shaw & Partners, 621. Yeah, just to wind the Makerfield thing up and the Starmer thing.
So out of the local elections, the Britain predicts has got a swing away from Labour of 20% to reform 13.5%, which means reform would end up with 41% of the vote, Labour 28% of the vote. Although that doesn't, that was the other day.
And I can't help but think that the mood, the vibe, the impetus might be slightly different given the special one-off nature of this, but that's the way it plays anyway. So Andy Burnham is no shoe-in. 6.25. Trending now. Now, if you've missed the football news, as in the World Cup, they've gone all Super Bowl this morning. Halftime show for the first time ever, curated by Chris Martin, no less.
The focus is going to be on raising $100 million for the FIFA fund that helps kids get into education. So with that in mind, Martin's joined up with the Muppets.
What can Elmo say? Oh, Elmo knows. Mr. Chris wants some singing lessons, right? Well, I definitely need some singing lessons from you, and I'd love that. But what I'd really like to ask is if you could help try and find some giant stars to be part of the show. How about Madonna? Yeah, Elmo loves Madonna. That is a fantastic idea. Thank you.
What about BTS? Butter, me favorite song. And cookie ingredient.
That's a brilliant idea. The only thing is, how do we get hold of BTS?
Ah!
Wait, who's on the phone, Elmo?
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