Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Morning and welcome. Today our economy into the budget downgrades and new forecasts. But India, FTA, that's go. Super Rugby is go. In Christchurch as the new stadium gets a run. Sale GP isn't go as we pull the pin. Tim and Katie after eight of course. Richard Arnold, Murray Olds, they fill out the talent roster as well. Polsky. Righto, Friday morning, seven past six.
Chapter 2: What economic challenges is Treasury facing amid oil shocks?
Tell you what, disappointment of the week for me has been the gargantuan mess Formula One has got itself into in the name of climate change. They want to be net zero by 2030. The question you can quite rightly ask, as of this week or as of the 2026 rule changes, is at what cost?
Chapter 3: How is the India Free Trade Agreement progressing?
In looking to save the planet, not everything has to be ruined. I mean, Christmas tinsel is up 40% because of the war and all the plastic bits that go through the straight of a moose. I'd rather go without Christmas tinsel than ruin F1. Max Verstappen turns out to be 100% right.
Chapter 4: What can we expect from the opening of the One NZ Stadium in Christchurch?
This isn't racing, and that is the most dagger-in-the-heartish thing you can say to a motorsport fan. This isn't racing. Nothing wrong with moving with the times. When cars used to crash, they sometimes blew up and killed people. They decided that needed to change. The halo... had some pushback with its introduction, but ultimately it was the right call.
But if you read the changes made this week to the cars and their power modes, and please don't because it's farcical, you would one, need a degree, but two, see just how out of hand and unracing all this is. From qualifying to the race itself, to the starts, to the tyre blankets, from kilojoules to megawatts, the changes are dizzying and depressing. Where once a guy like Verstappen
would wring the bejesus out of an engine and get a car to defy physics these days it's all batteries and who knows what jiggery-pokery the drivers don't like it it's so complicated some of the cars don't even work all in the name of net zero if one is one of the greatest sports stories of the modern age it is spectacular it is massive it is successful it is growing it is global
Chapter 5: What are the implications of the recent Formula One rule changes?
It is everything you could ever want a sport or a business or a business or a sport to be until it isn't. It's a golden goose and a battery is wrecking it. The more battery, the more wreckage, the more questions, the more upset, the more unpredictability, the more risk to the brand. Speed, skill, risk, and an engine. That's motorsport. Talk about looking a gift horse.
News of the world in 90 seconds.
Main development war-wise is the Trump shoot-to-kill order. If they stumble upon Iranians laying mines, peace talks still in abeyance due to the fact Iran's a bit messy.
Iran is having a very hard time figuring out who their leader is. They just don't know. The infighting is between the hardliners who have been losing badly on the battlefield and the moderates who are not very moderate at all, but gaining respect is crazy.
The other war, Harry seems to have gone straight from Sydney and the missus to the security summit in Europe for a word about Ukraine. When Ukraine gave up nuclear weapons, America was part of the assurance that Ukraine's sovereignty and borders would be respected. This is a moment for American leadership, a moment for America to show that it can honour its international treaty obligations.
Just before we leave US politics, the Alameda DA has given an update on the Swalwell case. He was the DM who quit the other day when a lot of women said a lot of accusatory stuff about him.
Women who have been victims of sexual assault, whether at the hands of politicians, people on the street or anyone else, this message is for them. It's my job as DA to protect the rights of victims with everything that I have.
Then in Britain, a couple of problems. Problem one, Sakia still in denial mode. That was important and should have been brought to my attention and could have been brought to my attention. And had it been brought to my attention before Peter Mandelson took up his post, then I wouldn't have appointed them. I think it was a serious error of judgment.
But Kat, who is the Cabinet Office Permanent Secretary... Conor came to his aid.
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Chapter 6: How is the global economy reacting to current events?
Right, so the Dow Jones. So there's a little bit of a turnaround now. We're heading into the weekend. Lots of things happen over the weekend, as we know. So the Dow Jones is down 0.4%, 198 points, 49,293. The S&P 500 is down 42 points. That's 0.58%, 7096, but still above the 7,000 level. The NASDAQ is down 0.91%, 223 points. 24,434. Overnight, small loss for their FTSE 100, 19 points, 10,457.
The Nikkei was down 3.25%, 59,140. 0.3% fall in the Shanghai Composite, 4093. The Aussies yesterday lost 50 points. 8793, and the NZX 50 down 0.47%, 61 points, 12,884. Kiwi dollar has come off a little bit, 0.5866 against the US. It is once again flirting with the 82 cent mark against the Aussie, 0.8212. 0.5016 against the euro, 0.4353 against the quid, 93.59 Japanese yen.
Gold is trading at $4,712. And Brent crude is sort of inching up because this thing just doesn't look like it's ending, does it? $106.51. Where are you going? I'm going to Sri Lanka, Mike. Of course you are. Yeah, and you know what? I'm going to watch rugby in Sri Lanka. New Zealand under-85 kilo team. My nephew's playing. Oh, I was going to say, because you're not under-85 kilos.
Well, you never know. Maybe, you know, but I like to keep that. There's always a mystique, Mike. You want to keep the mystique about that sort of thing. All right, well, you have a very good time. We'll catch up in a couple of weeks. Andrew Kelleher, Shaw & Partners. I wasn't expecting that, to be frank. L'Oreal, very good result. Fantastic result. World's largest cosmetics company.
Sales growth of 7.6%. We not only outperformed the beauty market that remains dynamic, but accelerated our market share gains around the world. That's the sort of talk you want to hear. And Moncler, luxury, puffer jackets, skiing, all that sort of stuff. A big earnings surprise there as well.
They got hit in the Middle East, which seemed to me to be weird because not a lot of skiing in the Middle East, but there you go, 6.22. You're at Newstalk ZB. Poor attempt by Willis to blame the downgrade on the Middle East situation. Moody are not downgrading every other country. It's a not unfair point, but it is an unfair point. I'll come back to it.
Mike Christchurch in Canterbury is still booming. Jobs are up. Bars and restaurants are full. Crusaders going to flatten the Waratahs tonight at One New Zealand Stadium. Hamner Springs Ski Club open for skiing this weekend. More on that later. 6.25.
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Paul Rudd. generating a little bit of Oscar buzz, and it's not every day he can say that. He plays a wedding singer. Now, where have we heard that one before? Twist, he doesn't get the plaudits he deserves for writing a song for the biggest singer in the world.
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Chapter 7: What are the latest updates on the NDIS in Australia?
Auckland rose month on month. Waikato best performer for the north, up 17% for the year. Marlborough, only region to go backwards year on year, but it's only down 0.7%, so I'm not sure what's going on in Marlborough. That'll have something to do with horticulture, is my suspicion. Where are the jobs? What sort of jobs are they? Construction, which is the weirdest thing, isn't it?
Because all you ever hear from the construction industries, especially from the unions, is construction is shocking. Labour spends half their life in question time talking about all the construction jobs that are lost, and yet construction jobs are up 36%. So it is a boomy, busty sort of business, and it seems to be more boomy than busty at the moment.
Jobs on farm, perhaps not surprisingly, are up 33% in the year. Trades, manufacturing, transport, engineering, consulting, they're all up above 20%. Biggest losers, jobs in sport and rec. Media and advertising down 11% each. So that's your job market for this morning. Meantime at Treasury, they're just a bit of jiggery-pokery on the numbers to work out what on earth's going on.
And they came up with scenarios yesterday, which is the same as me coming up with scenarios or the same as you coming up with scenarios. I mean, one of the scenarios was inflation at 7% or 8% and oil at 180%. So is that going to happen? Who would know? Probably not. But Murray Horne once worked at Treasury, so we'll get his insight in the next half hour of the program. The FTA at last is go.
Was Labour playing silly buggers on that, do you reckon? I mean, of course they were. Glenn's nodding, and if Glenn nods, he nods for us all. I'm just so sick of hearing about it. Couldn't agree more. We'll talk about the Super Rugby, we'll talk about the Sail GP, we'll talk to Tim and Katie, and then we'll all go home. How's that sound? News is next.
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7 past 7, Treasury's got another look, of course, at our economic circumstances to give the Finance Minister a bit of a steer ahead of the budget. Worst case scenario, inflation 7.4. That would mean oil's at about 180. Dr Murray Horne's former Treasury Secretary, of course. These days, New Zealand Initiative senior fellow. Murray, good morning.
Do you envy their job, given it appears to me at the moment to be largely guesswork? Oh, no. No. Forecasting is a problem, especially about the future. That's the slogan. And this is a particularly uncertain future. I mean, the whole world order that we're used to is breaking down around us. So it just creates a hell of a lot of uncertainty there.
across a lot of spheres, and New Zealand's very exposed to negative shocks, both financial and natural disasters seem to be coming more frequent. So it's not just this one, it's that we could have another one next week. In terms of shocks, in what we're dealing with right now in your vast years of experience, where does this one sit, do you reckon?
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Chapter 8: How is the New Zealand economy performing post-COVID?
And the question for me, or from me to you, is do you reckon we'll ever get on top of this? And do you think Meta care? Because funnily enough, later in the day I was reading that Meta, in Australia this is, Meta are not removing the rule-breaking ads when the regulator asks them to. So these ads actually found in breach by the Australian regulator.
Meta then chooses whether to take it down based on their own policies, no matter what the local country says. So they're a law literally unto themselves. And the particular case in Australia was the Stacks Burger Company using the phrase, stop effing mansplaining, see, Phil Reston. That's live on Facebook at the moment.
So they decided that wasn't acceptable and Meta still not put it down because they, for reasons best known to themselves, decided it is. Meantime at Meta, if you work for them, they are tracking your keystrokes. This is the weirdest thing. So this is an AI training tool and they're training their AI by taking their employees and it's keystrokes and mouse clicks.
So you're sitting in the office and whatever you're doing, they're tracking you. Is that weird or is it just me? Weird company. But anyway, they're so big now. They're a classic example of something being so big, literally I don't think anyone can do anything about it because the ongoing story is, of course, all the so-called well-known people are involved in, you know, scams, which aren't scams.
You know, they're not the real people. They don't do much about that either. They say they do, but they don't. Right. Kate Hawksby. Tim Wilson will do the week, and then we'll go across to Murray Olds and chat about Australia.
This NDIS thing has been occupying them big time this week, so all of that's still to come on the Mike Hosking Breakfast, where the news is next. Come and get some of us. Evil finds a way in. Come and turn the lights off. Tell me what you're saying. Tell me what you're saying.
A lot of that going on in music these days, that sort of... Put on voices. Zayn Malik, this is his fifth full length. It's called Conical... Named after a style of percussive, syllabic, South Indian singing. In reality, it suggests it's more a collection of languid R&B vocals and some sad but sexy lyrics with warm vibes. He's got 15 tracks, but he's packed only 45 minutes and 21 seconds in.
So those tracks are short, they're just little bitty tracks.
The Week in Review with Two Degrees. Fighting for fair for Kiwi business.
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