Nick Bryant: US Politics Expert on the upcoming midterms, polls, support for Trump
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What are the stakes with just under 100 days until the US midterms?
Just under 100 days to go to the United States midterm elections. Broadly, polls have the Democrats with an edge, but both the House and the Senate are tight, and the map, as they so often say, is tricky. Then you have the war, then you have the Supreme Court, and then you have the unpredictability of the president. The world can't stop watching, of course, which, what, makes it so interesting, basically. So let's get some insight and maybe some predictions with one of the best in the business. Our old mate Nick Bryant is back with us. Nick, good morning to you. Hey, Mike. How are you? I'm extremely well indeed. Do you enjoy watching it from your posse in Australia? Are you glad you're still out of the place?
Well, I'm glad that I'm not there, but I'm not sure if my mind has migrated, Mike. My body certainly has, but I do what I used to do, which is wake up in the morning and see what Trump has done. And before I go to bed, I check my phone to see what Trump has done. So I'm not sure if I'm as far away from it as I'd like to be. But Oh, you just can't stop watching. It's like rubbernecking, isn't it, sometimes on a sort of motorway parlour?
Yeah, exactly.
How do polls currently rate Democrats versus Republicans going into the midterms?
As we go to the midterms, the role of the war and having it in the rearview mirror, how important is it, do you think, to the Republicans?
Well, Trump is absolutely desperate to end this war, but can't end this war, this war of choice that he thought was going to be over very quickly. I mean, he gave it a time frame of four to six weeks. It's now six months, literally, this week, isn't it? It began on the 28th of February, it's still going on and 28th of July. And they just can't seem to bring it to an end. I mean, they had that ceasefire agreement, of course. But, you know, last week we had sort of 13 days of continuous tit for tat exchanges between Iran and the States. Then we had that brief pause. Then they started again. And it's not only just the Strait of Hormuz now, which everybody knew might would be shut down. if America went to war with Iraq.
That has been war game for decades. Trump just disregarded that advice from his military chiefs. It's now the Red Sea as well. And it's that economic disruption that it's causing, not just around the world, but in America itself, that is so politically problematic.
I was watching him in Michigan this week. He went to, you know, that's a key state, Michigan. And he goes there and he tells them everything's good and, you know, don't worry about this. And the oil price is $4 on average a gallon. That's just a little price to pay for now and all that sort of stuff. Does that, I mean, can you sell that when it's not true?
I think one of the key things about this war, Mike, is that Trump cannot warp reality. He cannot get even his most ardent supporters to ignore the evidence of their own eyes and the evidence of their own wallets. I mean, they are going to gas stations in the United States and paying much, much more for their gas. They're going to the supermarkets and paying much, much more for their groceries. You know, Trump can stand before them in a rally in Michigan and say, it's a little blip, you know, nobody should be that worried about inflation. They know it's different. They are suffering from personal recessions of their own, even if the US economy hasn't gone into recession. He cannot distort reality on this one.
If you look at the latest polling, Mike, even amongst Republicans, it's terrible. I mean, just 19% of Republicans have told CNN in the latest poll that they are enthusiastic about the rest of his second term. That's just one in five Republicans are looking forward with enthusiasm to the next couple of years.
Work us with your expertise through the map, the House and the Senate, the complexities of it, the redistricting and stuff. What chance is there that things get flipped and it becomes major for the second part of his presidency?
Well, Trump is obviously being accused of trying to cheat ahead of the midterm elections. You know, generally, in midterm elections, the incumbent party, that's to say the presidential party, always suffers setbacks.
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Chapters
4 chapters
1
What are the stakes with just under 100 days until the US midterms?
0:00–0:58
2
How do polls currently rate Democrats versus Republicans going into the midterms?
0:58–3:59
3
How is the war in the Middle East affecting Republican prospects and the economy?
3:59–11:02
4
Why can't Trump 'warp reality' on inflation and living costs for voters?
11:02–12:19
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