Randy Manner: Retired US Army Major General on likely escalations between Iran and the US and Project Freedom

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The Mike Hosking Breakfast 7 min 2 speakers 3 chapters transcribed 4 months ago
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What recent events have escalated tensions between Iran and the US?

Mike Hosking 0:00
to Project Freedom where the American military is going in to theoretically escort the stuck ships out of Hormuz at a humanitarian operation as supplies and conditions on those ships turn troublesome. So how's it working out and how do you make this thing happen? Randy Mann is the former U.S. Army Major General and Vice Chief of the U.S. National Guard and he's back with us. Randy, morning to you. Yes, good morning to you, sir. What are you reading as to what's been happening so far this morning in our terms? We've had a few missiles fired. The UAE has closed schools for the week. A facility has been hit. The Americans are claiming some ships are out. What do you reckon is going on?
Randy Manner 0:34
I think this is unfortunately probably another escalation, especially with the UAE condemning, quite frankly, Iran's dangerous escalation. I think that we're going to see perhaps Iran... trying to attack more ships that are stuck, or, of course, probably, I hope, avoiding direct conflict with the United States of attacking U.S. ships. But it's probably going to escalate.
Mike Hosking 1:00
So when you say escalate, are we back at war, do you think, eventually?
Randy Manner 1:06
I certainly hope not. I hope that cooler heads prevail. The United States is, I mean, the administration is stuck right now. They don't see any way out of this situation and they are trying desperately to not just attack unilaterally because obviously at some point the world economy and the US economy continues to struggle with these oil prices. So I think it really is a situation that's stuck in the moment.
Mike Hosking 1:33
What's your assessment of how this unfolded? It came out yesterday on Truth Social. It's a humanitarian exercise. Trump used the words best efforts. Who got to him to explain clearly life on those ships is miserable and something needs to be done?
Randy Manner 1:49
I doubt seriously that anybody in the administration reached out. It probably was somebody in the UAE or Saudi Arabia who he does listen to them because, of course, money talks. So it is more likely it was not someone in the US administration who And it was probably not, in all fairness, with any empathy toward those people that are on those ships. I think it has to do with demonstrating the fact that Iran has been humiliating the United States left and right by demonstrating that the strait is not yet open.

How does Major General Manner assess the likelihood of military conflict?

Mike Hosking 2:18
And when Trump says best efforts, is that a forewarning of the fact that if this gets ugly, they're going to pull the pin on it?
Randy Manner 2:26
It's very possible. It's very possible. Again, I think the one thing that all your listeners have to understand is our president is not predictable. He's not predictable in the United States. He's not predictable on the global scene. So it's very, very difficult to predict what he may decide.
Mike Hosking 2:43
Given that when you've been on the program before, you've articulated that they're stuck. They've got a problem. The Strait of Hormuz is now a bargaining chip. The Trump argument that he's bleeding the Iranians into submission with the blockade. Is that true?
Randy Manner 2:59
I don't believe that is completely true. There are still land routes and there's other ways for the Iranians to be able to move things in and out. Of course it is hurting them. Of course it is. On the other side of the coin, the country is very large and it has additional ways to be able to get food and other things in. But again, I don't want to say that things are good for them, for the Iranians. Clearly they are not. But I think the Iranians continue to play the long game rather than looking for short-term solutions.
Mike Hosking 3:30
As far as escorts are concerned, the US Navy has done it, or the US military have done this before. How difficult is it at scale, and how much resource do you need, and for how long?
Randy Manner 3:41
This is very difficult to do at scale. You're talking about two ships, but there are dozens and dozens and dozens of ships that are in that area. I don't know the exact number, but

What humanitarian efforts are being proposed for ships in the Strait of Hormuz?

Randy Manner 3:51
several hundred perhaps. And so doing it at scale is very difficult. You have to have defense in depth against all types of missiles and drones, and you have to keep things close, and you have to have air cover.

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