Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Carney considers concessions to Trump as U.S. power wanes abroad
episodePreviously titled “Munk Dialogue with Andrew Coyne: Carney considers concessions to Trump as U.S. Power wanes abroad” — renamed by the publisher on Aug 7, 2026
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Why is Canada considering concessions to the Trump administration on dairy trade?
What is the point of making concessions? What is the point of signing a deal? with this president, when every experience tells us nothing of it will be binding. He will not live up to the terms on his side. Uh he will not make any serious concessions to begin with. Uh but he will graciously accept our concessions and then turn around and and and hit us again anyway.
Welcome to the regular Friday Monk Dialogue this summer, featuring Globe and Mail journalist Andrew Coyne. Andrew, great to be in conversation with you.
Be with you.
Gotta talk trade off the top of today's show, Andrew. We're hurtling towards this August nineteent deadline. The Prime Minister is flagging that he wants a more comprehensive deal with the Trump administration. Yet all the signs out of the United States seems to be uh a desire to delay, to push uh any kind of comprehensive deal, if one is possible, out until twenty twenty seven. What's your take of the mix as we uh hurdle through the dog days of summer to this consequential date?
Well, it's odd how the positions have uh turned around. It w used to be the Americans were expressing frustration 'cause we were dragging our heels. Uh and we were trying to play for time, uh, you know, just to watch Trump grow weaker, to wait until after the midterms or what have you. Um, why this sudden turnaround where now we want to get a deal by August the nineteenth? I mean, I understand the exact point about the tariffs. Um, but it the the the overarching question you know, surrounding all of these talks is what is the point of a deal with Donald Trump? This is a lesson that every country has been learning. uh to its cost. One of the things that had distinguished the Canadian approach until now is that we didn't rush into a deal.
What does the shift from “play for time” to a rushed August 19 deadline reveal about Ottawa’s strategy?
We've watched other countries that did uh and got nothing for it. They they signed a deal on extortionary terms, and then even those extortionary terms were ignored. Uh so the Europeans, for example, you know, made all kinds of concessions in return for a tariff of merely twenty-five percent, uh, only to see Trump impose new tariffs on them after that, after the deal had been struck. So uh I know it's an obvious point, but it's nevertheless a compelling and and and point that has not gone away is What is the point of making concessions? What is the point of signing a deal? with this president when every experience tells us nothing of it will be binding, he will not live up to the terms on his side, uh he will not make any serious concessions to begin with, uh but he will graciously accept our concessions and then turn around and and and hit us again anyway.
Um so on top of which we're now seeing reports that the Canadian government, which had previously been vowing elbows up, no concessions, etcetera, is prepared to make quite a string of concessions. Now I have to be careful here. Some of these concessions are things I would be glad to see us get rid of. If they make any concession, for example, on uh giving more room for American milk in the Canadian market, that would be good for Canadian consumers, good for Canada. Um But in this climate and with this president. Um, if you're gonna make any concessions at all, you should be getting at least the pretense of some kind of concession on the other side. Uh you know, I I for t for me it would just be a matter of just keeping the the talks um rolling, keeping the talks going.
uh rather than anything else for the reasons I've been saying. But it it to on top of everything else, to be making a bunch of concessions. preemptively to a leader who will not reciprocate other than to slow down perhaps the pace of his tariff attacks on us, just seems to me to be uh hard to understand, hard to understand the logic.
So Andrew, let's go there. I mean What Do you think happened?
How might the Canadian government use strategic ambiguity to balance U.S. pressure and domestic politics?
Uh, because the the tenor, the tone out of the PMO and the Prime Minister certainly changed. With this threat of these new uh quote fifty percent tariffs, which are really only, in fact, a two to three percent change in our effective tariff rate because so much is is sheltered by the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
Why is Canada considering concessions to the Trump administration on dairy trade?
0:00–1:50
2
What does the shift from “play for time” to a rushed August 19 deadline reveal about Ottawa’s strategy?
1:50–3:55
3
How might the Canadian government use strategic ambiguity to balance U.S. pressure and domestic politics?
3:55–5:45
4
Why would the Prime Minister want a reciprocal concession from Washington before any Canadian concession?
5:45–7:38
5
What role could energy and provincial referendums play in Canada‑U.S. trade negotiations?
7:38–9:32
6
How does the timing of U.S. mid‑term elections affect Trump’s willingness to negotiate?
9:32–11:22
7
What are the possible explanations for the mixed signals coming from Ottawa on trade talks?
11:22–13:08
8
How does the emerging Oman‑Iran agreement over the Strait of Hormuz signal a shift in U.S. power abroad?
13:08–15:38
Speakers
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