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Chapter 1: What are the implications of Trump's foreign policy towards Iran?
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This is The Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.
I'm Michelle Cottle. I cover national politics for New York Times Opinion. And today we are switching things up a little bit. I am joined by my fantastic colleagues, David French and Nick Kristof. Welcome to the Roundtable, Nick. You are our first player from the Pacific Northwest.
Great to be with you. Greetings from the wilds of Oregon.
The wilds of Oregon, where I hope the weather is better than it has been here. But we got a lot of ground to cover today, guys. I want to talk about the Epstein files from the perspective of Nick's decades-long reporting on sex trafficking. But first, we want to dig into Trump's foreign policy moves, which is also perfect for Nick, given his years of reporting from around the globe.
So let's get into it. First, Iran. And the usual caveat, we are recording this Thursday morning, so who knows where this will have gone by the time you hear us. But as of now, Trump has called for Iranian officials to agree to a nuclear deal or to face a U.S. attack very soon.
This comes hot on the heels of the president's assertion that regime change would be the best option for Iran after massive protests erupted across the country, resulting in the deaths of thousands of protesters. Nick, as someone who has spent time on the ground there and covered this dictatorship, what do people need to understand about what's going on there and what a U.S. attack would mean?
So I've rarely traveled in a country where there is so much antipathy toward the regime. You go around Iran, not just in North Tehran where there are secular liberals, but you go in rural areas and people are just so pissed off at the government. And that's about not just the repression, which is a little bit less evident in rural areas, but it's about the corruption. It's about the hypocrisy.
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Chapter 2: How does the buildup of U.S. forces in the Middle East affect Iran?
And that is not the right atmosphere in which to start potentially dangerous military operations. So you have no public buy-in. We're not clear of the objectives. Throwing in regime change seems to be an extraordinary reach. Other than that, Michelle, everything's going great.
Yeah, it's all great. I mean, Nick, is this like some kind of great strategic ambiguity? Do we do we think that there is a comprehensive strategy behind this or is he just winging it?
No, I mean, I think David is exactly right. Iran has a certain capacity to suffer that I'm not sure we fully appreciate. The last year's campaign against Iran went over 11 days. And I think that may have built a certain complacency in the U.S. and in the public about how this one will go. It's, you know...
We should remember that Afghanistan is a lesson in just how difficult military campaigns can be. And I think we may also have forgotten that the U.S. spent $7 billion bombing the Houthis in Yemen between the Biden administration and the Trump administration. And last May, we... you know, pretty much gave up and stopped the campaign without really getting anything substantial from it.
And look, it would be great if there were a nuclear deal. It would be great if Iran just announced that it was going to stop supporting its proxies. And it would be great if it dismantled its ballistic missile system, which are the U.S. demands. But I don't really see that Iran is likely to accept any of those in full. And the U.S.
isn't really prepared to offer Iran any additional Swedeners like relaxation of sanctions. So it's hard to see a deal being reached. And meanwhile, President Trump, I think, has, by positioning all these forces there, he's kind of put himself in a position where it's very likely these forces will be used.
I think everybody remembers that in January, he's told the Iranians that help is on the way, that he was encouraging the protesters. And then thousands of them were massacred without the U.S. doing anything much at all. So I think he's kind of on a trajectory that may well lead to bombing Iran without it being very clear what that accomplishes.
Well, this is my other question here. Has he crossed a line in terms of military buildup, the president, that is? I mean, when we're talking about what's going on over there, this is something we haven't seen in a really long time, right, David? This is not like sending a few ships or whatever for –
show. You know, the analogy I've used, it's this cocked pistol. You've moved in enough forces, you've put them in a posture that is extraordinarily aggressive. It's like a cocked pistol aimed at Iran. And the other thing that I would say about this is there's another factor hovering over in the background here. And that other factor is that
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Chapter 3: What insights does Nick Kristof provide about the Iranian regime?
So Trump claimed with his strikes back in June that he had obliterated Iran's nuclear capabilities, and this is part of why he's feeling good about his record over there. But then here we are again with them having to revisit this issue. Why is this not seen as, well, actually, maybe he didn't do such a great job last time. And why would we trust him this time?
Yeah.
I mean, I think you're right in that, look, he did not destroy the Iranian nuclear program, but he did certainly set it back quite significantly. The best guess among nuclear experts is that the highly enriched uranium is now deeply buried, that it doesn't have the
capacity right now to process it, that it may be building additional facilities and bring in centrifuges and try to rebuild the program. But for right now, that is not happening. So I think you're right, Michelle. And I think that undermines the whole rationale for what I think is quite likely going ahead.
Okay, so David, you brought up Venezuela. At the start of this year, the Trump administration went in, they captured Venezuela's president, Nicolas Maduro. That country is now being run by Delcy Rodriguez, who was Maduro's vice president. So not a member of the opposition party, and so not exactly regime change. Right.
What is this telling us about kind of the administration's global goals of sorts?
Well, you know, it tells us a few things. One is that the administration will, Achieve a limited success and make maximal claims about the magnitude of that success. So as I said before, the actual military operation itself was pretty remarkable. It was quite a military achievement.
But then you trumpet everything that he trumpeted while you're leaving the entire rest of the regime apparatus in place. Well, how much have you accomplished really over the long term? I think we'll ultimately look back on that operation as a footnote to his presidency in all likelihood.
And so I do think one of the things he does really enjoy doing, and it's directly related to the strike in Operation Midnight Hammer, was... He achieved something concrete. It was something real. It actually did damage the Iranian nuclear program and then dramatically overstated it. And the overstatement is obvious because here we are again.
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Chapter 4: What are the potential consequences of military intervention in Iran?
you know, Bill Cosby or Harvey Weinstein or Jeffrey Epstein. And meanwhile, every year there are more than 100,000 cases reported of child trafficking. And that's a huge understatement of the real number, which we don't know what that is. And we have structures in our society that fundamentally propel these kids, really troubled, vulnerable kids toward traffickers. And just as
the Epstein associates were indifferent to these young girls. So I think we as a society are indifferent to the broader problem. And, you know, in every American city, there are girls who are in trouble and, you know, Mom's boyfriend is hitting on them. And what are you supposed to do if you're a 13-year-old girl in that position? Well, you run away and you go to the bus station.
And the only person looking for you at that bus station is not some social worker or helpful police officer. It's a pimp. And I wish we could take... this passion and concern for what is happening with Epstein and use that to fix some broken systems in the US, like foster care above all, that fail these girls.
So I know the analogy is imprecise, but this sort of reminds me of the discussions we have with gun violence, which is that we have these huge, horrific, spectacular mass shootings, and people kind of pile on and try to figure out what we could do to address these random massacres. When you're talking about gun violence in the U.S., there's so many kind of more mundane, lower-profile things
episodes that are really at the heart of the horrifying numbers. So, David, do you think it's even appropriate to talk about an Epstein class when it comes to this abuse and cover-up? Or should we be kind of automatically digging down to look at some of these broader social issues?
That's a great question, because I think there's been a lot of attention on this sort of Epstein class as a sort of uniquely vile subset of people. But if you look at scandals you've seen in churches, that's not the Epstein class. In my journalistic career, I have covered some awful things that have happened to kids in religious settings, for example, that are, again, not the Epstein class.
There is a strain of depravity that runs through... some subset of human beings, a strain of depravity that leads them to exploit and abuse vulnerable people. And those people can be found at the highest levels and they can be found at the levels of society where people are struggling the most and everywhere in between. And there's one also thing that I want to talk about
We need to have a real conversation in this country about the influence of pornography and what is happening, especially with the very early exposure that we're having, you know, the average age of exposure to pornography. And sometimes it's not like the dirty pictures that were under somebody's dad's or uncle's bed, right? It's stuff that's mind-blowingly awful.
that kids are being exposed to at a very early age. And I think it's just warping the whole way in which the sexes are interacting with each other and exploitation is endemic to parts of the porn industry. So I do think we need to have a real conversation about what are we allowing our children to be exposed to at an early age? And by golly, what kind of choices are adults making? And
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Chapter 5: What is the connection between the Epstein files and systemic child trafficking?
And sitting in that living room with the parents, in 20 minutes, I found the girl advertised on Backpage as if she were, you know, a lost puppy by a pimp. And we gave that number, the pimp's phone number, to the police. And that night, they did raid the pimp's hotel room. He was an armed pimp. He had two girls with him. You know, but...
That is not a scalable intervention, but the police could have done that themselves if it had been a priority. But it has not been a priority, and that's not just the Boston Police Department. That's America. That's our problem.
You know, one thing that I have seen is that people are very good at making themselves victims even when they should be held accountable. And here's what I mean. Every incident that I've ever looked at involving abuse within an institution, like say the head of a ministry or in a college or a big summer camp, you have one predator maybe who's a person who has abused many, many, many people.
And it's the one predator who does the abuse, but it sort of takes a constellation of people around them to enable it to go forward through warning signs, through red flags, through- They ignore the red flags. Oh, sometimes the red flags are just waving, like you're waving in an airplane, and they'll just push through it.
Or sometimes they'll even know about misconduct, and then the person will say, I'm so sorry, please forgive me, and then they'll push through it. And then when the truth emerges, that same constellation of people will flip around and say, I'm shocked. I'm stunned. I cannot believe how betrayed I was. And so everything gets isolated to the individual.
And the individual absolutely should be 1 billion percent held accountable, but we're always so good at deflecting and avoiding responsibility, especially institutionally. And so, in my view, if you see an institution that has been through a scandal And it has not engaged in very intentional and systemic reforms as a result of that scandal, as a result of what it's learned from it.
Avoid that institution. It's ripe for more problems. And so that accountability point that Nick makes, I just don't think it can be emphasized enough. And it extends beyond sex trafficking and into sexual harassment and sexual abuse more broadly.
All right, I want us to switch gears. And before we go, let's end this on a lighter note, the way we always do, with recommendations. Gentlemen, what have you got for me? Nick, guest gets to go first.
So, look, there are so many grim things happening around the world that I just counsel distraction. And so in my day job, I shout at the world and it pays no attention. But, you know, here on the farm in Oregon, we are making our little bit of wine and cider. And it is it is our little sandbox. And the Trump administration can't affect our sandbox.
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Chapter 6: How does society's indifference impact child trafficking victims?
Love it. Okay, I am going to do two, although the first one is more of a plea. I was traveling around Texas all week, and when I was flying home, it was after the Department of Homeland Security had basically shut down, and those poor TSA agents... again, are out there doing the Lord's work without pay. So just get out there and hug a TSA agent today. Just do this for me.
I'm thousands of hugs spreading across America. I could probably get in trouble for that. Okay. But then, so in honor of the passing of film great Robert Duvall. I just want to pitch, everybody goes out and watches what is my favorite performance and what I learned after his death, incidentally, was apparently his favorite performance, which is Lonesome Dove, the miniseries.
Either of you, have you seen it?
I have not. A long time ago. A long time. It was a phenomenon when it came on back in the day.
It was. It was back in the day where you had a hard time watching it if you missed it the first time. So it's based on a kind of Western epic by Larry McMurtry, who I am also a fan of. I think the book came out in 85. The miniseries came out in 89. And it's about these two old Texas rangers after the age of Texas rangers, after the high points, kind of herding some cattle north. And it's okay.
So it sounds very, you know, basic, but it is glorious. And Robert Duvall as Augustus McRae. Just perfection. You can't beat it.
I've got some great watching recommendations from this show.
There you go. I'm sure you can. It's got to be streaming somewhere. I have a DVD if you need it, Nick. We can go old school, but I highly recommend. So thank you guys with that. Let's do it again. Nick, please come back sometime.
Happy to. It was a fun morning. Thanks, Nick. Thanks, Michelle.
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