Chapter 1: What are the implications of the war with Iran for U.S. foreign relations?
In theory, I knew that this kind of thing can happen in any family. Upstanding citizens are always turning out to be secret criminals, and I wouldn't even call my cousin Alan an upstanding citizen. But it's one thing to know and another thing to understand.
Alan, murder me?
What the hell was Alan thinking? From Serial Productions and The New York Times, I'm Em Gessen, and this is The Idiot, out March 26th, wherever you get your podcasts.
This is The Opinions, a show that brings you a mix of voices from New York Times opinion. You've heard the news. Here's what to make of it.
Hi, I'm Robert Siegel in conversation about politics with two very insightful political writers. Joining me at the New York Times Washington Bureau are political writer and author E.J. Dionne. Great to be with you. And joining us today is Mona Charon, policy editor at The Bulwark and host of The Mona Charon Show. Thanks so much. Thanks for joining us.
We're recording this on Wednesday, so it's possible that some of our discussion may be overtaken by events, but I think that our focus today will likely be unrevised very much for the near future. We're focusing on relations under stress, under stress from the war in Iran. Quite apart from what this war has done to Iran, it has also wrought changes in U.S.
relations abroad and even changes with our politics, too. How do you think Trump is doing in handling this war, E.J.?
I think we are going to deeply regret this war precisely because of how he handled it. I mean, I think the idea wasn't good in the first place, but he made it so much worse. This war will raise questions about our lack of staying power in the world. He goes back and forth to the point where even the Iranians sound like political commentators when they say –
Oh, he's saying this stuff about negotiations because he's worried about the markets and oil prices. He's creating all this division and alienation among our allies that we're going to talk about. He's strengthening Russia by lifting those sanctions. He's taking everybody's eyes off Ukraine, which is what I think we should be in the middle of.
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Chapter 2: How is Trump's handling of the Iran war perceived by political analysts?
frankly, end up Jews coming from the hard right in the United States, the Tucker Carlsons and so forth, who are influencing the younger generation of Republicans. So the hatred for Israel is coming from both sides. And Netanyahu seems to have made a calculation that he's aware of this declining support for Israel in the United States. And he seems to be saying, yep,
In the future, we're not going to have the U.S., and so we're going to go for everything right now while we've got Trump, try to get everything done, eliminate Iran as a threat, eliminate Hezbollah, Hamas, and then we will be secure and we won't have to worry about American good opinion.
So you're saying the loss of some American support has the perverse effect of of creating a greater complaint against Israel in the United States.
It's very possible. E.J.? I think that you can go all the way back to when Netanyahu appeared before Congress, and he was invited by the Republicans, notably, not the Democrats, and gave a speech attacking President Obama's deal with Iran. And to have a foreign leader come before Congress at the invitation of only one party— I think, began to drive a wedge through our politics.
And I think, you know, historically, liberals and progressives were broadly sympathetic to Israel. Most liberals and progressives also very staunchly supported, you know, Palestinian autonomy, two states. But that was the consensus. I think after Gaza, that began to break up. You know, many of us are old enough to remember Prime Minister Rabin, are old enough to remember Labor Israel.
For many young people, they have only known this Israel under Bibi Netanyahu. The war is, I think, very awkward. And, you know, the administration itself has made it more awkward when Marco Rubio came out and said to try to explain this war and said, well, we knew Israel was going to do it. And so then we had to go out because we had to defend our bases.
First, it was nonsense in terms of whether we went into the war, but it was a remarkable thing to say. And so the administration, in its many inconsistencies about this war, has opened that door. And I also think it's simply the fact that the interests of Israel and the interests of the United States do not totally coincide in this war.
And the Times had a really interesting story where there's also a difference, it appears, between Israel and the Saudis, where the Saudis really want the war to go on until there is regime change. Israel could probably live with – easier with a much weakened Iran. And so I think you're going to see another fight in that area.
Although – I don't know. It could be that the Israelis are happy to see the Saudis being the ones to push Trump to continue the war so that it doesn't fall on them. But I think they would be happy to continue the war as well.
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Chapter 3: What challenges does NATO face due to the current U.S. administration?
And now a lot of those folks just don't think of themselves as Republican anymore. So you're reducing this party to a party of Trump.
Yes. And by the way, you know, Trump just the other day was touting, you know, somebody had done a poll where they said, you know, 100 percent of those who identified as MAGA Republicans approved of his actions in Iran. Well, of course, if you are willing to identify yourself as a MAGA Republican, then you're going to be in favor of any— That is the definition of a MAGA Republican. Exactly.
And there are fewer people who do identify as MAGA now than before the Iran war started.
A hundred percent of Celtics fans root for the Celtics. I think one of the interesting questions, and we don't know the answer to this yet, is can the MAGA base begin to break up?
I was really struck by – I think it's a Reuters Ipsos poll that came out last week or this week where only 29 percent of Americans approve of Trump on the economy and only 25 percent approve his handling of the cost of living. And I think –
One of his biggest problems, and I also think is a real problem for the country, is this kind of mega politics means that real problems we face now and in the future, housing, health care, child care, elder care, how to give young people entering a really difficult economy a leg up, particularly people who didn't go to college. All these big questions.
If we were talking about these, Mona and I could have real arguments about real problems that matter to people. And the MAGA Trump obsessions drive substance out of politics. And, boy, that's bad for every party.
Especially for people like us.
Just one more point about politics here. In addition to telling us what the next Congress is going to be like, the November election, that's typically – When we really start thinking about the next presidential race, isn't somebody going to have to express an interest in the Republican Party pretty soon?
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