Ali Ansari on how we misunderstand Iran and its people
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The Pat Kenny Show on Newstalk.
Ali Ansari is Professor of Iranian History and Director of the Institute for Iranian Studies at the University of St. Andrews. He's one of the leading authorities on modern Iran and has written widely on Iranian politics, history and relations with the West. And he joins me now on the line. Ali, good morning and welcome. Good morning. Now, first of all, and maybe this is an impossible question to answer, can you tell me where you think we are with regard to any kind of peace talks or ceasefire?
Well, to sum up, we're sort of between a rock and a hard place really at the moment. Neither side is budging. Both sides think they've done better than they probably have. And both are basically angling and waiting for a time when the other side will give them a better deal. The irony here is actually, to be honest, is that probably Trump would probably be willing to take some sort of deal some sort of lesser deal than the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, who are now looking to get some sort of maximalist deal, which I don't think the Americans or certainly Trump can deliver to them. So we're in an interesting impasse at the moment.
Now, we're told that there's a one page deal on offer from the Iranian side. And, you know, the cynics say, well, that's all Trump can really absorb. No point in going for a JCPOA 200 page document because he simply won't read it. So that would be simply a series of bullet points.
Well, yes. And I mean, I think the pages are coming from both sides, actually. I mean, I think the Americans have put down a 15 point thing and someone else would put down, you know, seven or 10 or whatever it is. I mean, none of these are going to solve the problem. I mean, all these are really trying to do is to set down a template for longer term negotiations. And this is the problem for both of us, really. I mean, for both sides, insofar as they're expecting to get the blockade or the Straits of Hormuz open.
What is the current state of peace talks regarding Iran?
And neither side are willing to sort of count on that until you get to the final deal. But, of course, the final deal could be months down the line. I mean, this is the problem. And it's, you know, for both sides, there are problems there. I mean, I don't think either side is really in a position. I think we're probably more aware of the economic difficulties that will cause us in the Western world than I suppose in some ways the Revolutionary Guards in Iran are paying as much attention to the economic difficulties that will be placed on Iran.
I remember at the time of the negotiation of the Good Friday Agreement, the line was nothing is agreed until everything is agreed. But there is a thesis being put forward that you do the straight of hormones first, park everything else. Now, would that work? Because Trump's imperative is to get the price of gas at the pumps down before the midterms.
Yes. So that's one of the arguments that they want to do. You know, the Iranians will open up the straits, the blockade will be lifted, and then you'll go on to negotiate other things. But of course, you know, both sides are basically saying that they will only lift their side. You know, the Iranians will release the straits and the Americans will release the blockade once they've seen other things being delivered or in good faith and so on and so forth. And at the moment, you know, there's this argument that neither side is showing or that neither side believes the other side is showing good faith this is the problem so it's you know that's one solution i mean another solution is to have a very sort of clear idea of a comprehensive agreement but again you know what what the regime in iran needs is a massive and swift cash injection i mean it needs something very rapid it's not the sort of thing actually that i think even with the best will in the world the americans can necessarily deliver they can certainly release some frozen assets but that would be a bit like a sticking plaster really for the iranians at the moment
Now, we remember the protests around the turn of the year and so many ordinary people who were protesting lost their lives at the hands of the regime.
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