Ukraine War: Is Russia finally on the backfoot?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
The Pat Kenny Show. With Timber Living Log Cabins. Saturday and Sunday from 10am. On Newstalk. Conversation that counts. Vladimir Putin has pursued a strategy of attrition, betting that Russia could simply outlast Kyiv and its Western allies. But now there are signs that that calculation may be under pressure. Russian advances on the battlefield are slowing, casualties are mounting, Ukrainian drones are striking deep inside Russia, and even Moscow's ability to sustain the war effort is being questioned, while motorists in various regions are queuing to fill their tanks. So is the momentum beginning to shift against Putin, or is this simply just another chapter in a long and brutal war of attrition?
Joining me on the line now is Emmanuel Chaz, Ukraine correspondent for France 24.
Is Russia’s spring-summer offensive stalling and what evidence shows it?
Emmanuel, good morning.
Good morning, Pat.
Now, first of all, what is being reported in Ukraine about the progress of the war?
Well, you know, we are at a turning point, I would say, where we see that Russia has been stalling, you know, in terms of its spring and summer offensive. It doesn't really manage to conquer that much territory. In fact, this year, it's, you know, it hasn't achieved its goals. However, we've seen over the past few weeks that Moscow really has increased airstrikes. air raids in particular against the capital Kyiv and they're deadly for last week we've had I think around 50 people who died in the Ukrainian capital and hundreds of people who have been injured so for Ukrainians right now they know that Russia has increased those attacks so there's more I would say there's a worry that those air raids are increasing at a time when Ukrainian air defence is not as performant
Are Ukrainian long-range drone strikes inside Russia shifting the war’s dynamics?
as it used to be for lack of Patriot missile defense systems, for example. So that's the mood right now.
But we've looked at the changing Ukrainian strategy, which was originally keeping the conflict within the boundary of Ukraine. or territory of Ukraine. But now they are sending drones deep into Russian territory. I mean, yesterday it was a report that Ukraine had hit 12 Russian oil tankers in a single night of attacks, which left people in the Saratov region without fuel.
What economic and civilian impacts are Russian strikes having inside Russia?
Absolutely. So we found ourselves in the middle of a 40 days operation, according to the Ukrainian authorities. So those Ukrainian long range and mid range strikes on Russian oil refineries, on Russian rear also, well, it's really hinders the Russian economy. First and foremost, we've seen that there have been shortages in Russia when it comes to fuel. So people now in Russia seem to finally realise that war has an impact on their daily lives. So it is noticeable here in Ukraine as well, in the sense that Ukrainians see that their army has managed to, what is said here, bring back war where it started, because Russia has waged this war of aggression initially you know, against Ukraine.
Could Ukraine producing Patriot systems or joint European air defences change the front line?
So there's a strong awareness that Ukraine has really upped its game when it comes to strikes and quite successfully so. You've mentioned those strikes also against tankers in the Black Sea. We really see that Kyiv has the upper hand in the Black Sea and people here are very aware of it.
Now, the question of how long this can go on, I mean, Russia has huge resources at its disposal. Whether it wants to spend them in this way is an open question. But for the moment after the NATO summit and the prospect that someday Ukraine may be able to manufacture its own Patriot missiles, is that being taken with a grain of salt or is it seen as a great breakthrough for Ukraine?
So it's seen positively, but also, you know, so first off, what is good is that the relationship between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky seems to have greatly improved as opposed to what we saw last year when Volodymyr Zelensky visited the White House in February. However, even if this license to produce Patriot air defense systems or missiles in Ukraine is granted by the United States, it will take a lot of time.
What are the strategic goals from Moscow and the existential stakes for Ukraine?
until the production chain can be started. It's costly, it's difficult and it takes a lot of time and Ukraine needs air defence right now.
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Chapters
7 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:01–0:47
2
Is Russia’s spring-summer offensive stalling and what evidence shows it?
0:47–1:46
3
Are Ukrainian long-range drone strikes inside Russia shifting the war’s dynamics?
1:46–2:20
4
What economic and civilian impacts are Russian strikes having inside Russia?
2:20–3:09
5
Could Ukraine producing Patriot systems or joint European air defences change the front line?
3:09–4:19
6
What are the strategic goals from Moscow and the existential stakes for Ukraine?
4:19–7:03
7
How have Russian airstrikes and Kyiv’s air defence performance changed recently?
7:03–7:19