Bitcoin's Next Move Depends On One Fed Decision | Jordi Visser
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
But the AI thematic side or the the factor side, the vols up towards 100 Bitcoin vol is still at 30.
Why are AI stocks experiencing a summer unwind and deleveraging now?
So if you're putting an asset in a portfolio right now, you can have three times as much Bitcoin on a vol adjusted basis as you can AI. And that means that we're at a point where I think you should start seeing more and more people as they get more focused on Ethereum.
uh get in once we get above the 200-day moving average i believe we're at the start of something new what's going on guys today we got a great conversation with jordy visser in this conversation we talk about all the deleveraging happening in the stock market why the mid-cycle slowdown in ai may be impacting your portfolio we also get into what's going on with inflation and kevin warsh's recent comments and then last but not least we go and we cover what's happening with bitcoin ethereum and the entire crypto industry here's my latest conversation with jordy visser All right, Jordy, I thought we could start the conversation. It seems like there's a big unwind happening in the public market, specifically around a lot of the AI names.
You started talking quite a bit about this like summer slowdown and how that may affect things. What are you seeing?
Yeah, this is probably going to be a fairly high-level discussion. I'm going to get a little wonky with the leverage side. But I think people are going to have to get used to this. So what's happening is... The S&P is making new all-time highs or equal weight S&P is making new all-time highs. Breath is making new all-time highs. The AI names are going down. So a lot of people are sitting there seeing their Micron go down and their Marvell go down and their go through the list of all of the names. Every single name, Caterpillar, Modine, everyone that's been let's say going up fairly fast, is giving back some of that. Now, some of that is related to just what I talked about, which is the AI mid-cycle slowdown is a second derivative change.
And NVIDIA went through this back in 2024. And I highly recommend everyone go back and look, because from ChatGPT to about June of 24, NVIDIA went up 12 times. So very similar to, let's say, Micron going from 100 to 1200. Since that period in June of 24, NVIDIA's earnings have continued to grow. They've continued to dominate the AI trade. But in two years, they've now gone up 48%. Good returns. I mean, you're getting 20 plus percent returns. You're outperforming the S&P, but it's not the 12 times that happen. And that's where we are in AI right now for all of these names, meaning most of them had three to 10 times type moves, especially the semiconductor names, which mean they've built in a lot of the next two years.
And I think what the market is going through is this second derivative where when you look at the earnings of these companies, you're like, oh, my God, they're up 400 percent, 500 percent. a year from now, they're only going to be up 30%, 40%. So you're decelerating. So that's the first part is I think the market is coming to term with the AI mid-cycle slowdown. And the other thing I wrote about, which is the firework show. The under the hood story is that there is absolutely a deleveraging happening.
What framework does Jordi Visser use to pick the next AI winners (memory vs earnings step‑ups)?
And I want to use, again, a bunch of comparisons. So Silver and gold were up massively last year. They had a drawdown, the biggest drawdowns they've ever seen in 30 years on different time horizons that were all within 20 days. The momentum factor for technology has seen an unprecedented move lower. I've posted an X about it. And what that does is the volatility rises. And whether it's a single-name retail person that is taking out leverage, whether it's Korean investors whose margins accounts have been closed, or whether it's a long, short, multi-strap, market-neutral hedge fund – Or it's a systematic quant strategy. And we've seen reports and numbers released from the prime brokers of just very large losses in a short amount of time.
And because the volatility has gone higher, whether it's risk parity, whether it's any kind of quant strategy, when the volatility goes higher, you not only have to reduce your risk at that point just from vol targeting.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–0:06
2
Why are AI stocks experiencing a summer unwind and deleveraging now?
0:06–3:19
3
What framework does Jordi Visser use to pick the next AI winners (memory vs earnings step‑ups)?
3:19–6:56
4
How does China’s Kimi K3 open‑source model change the AI competitive landscape?
6:56–9:45
5
How do model routers work and how many models should enterprises route between?
9:45–16:24
6
What are “cultural weights” in AI models and why do they matter for enterprise adoption?
16:24–22:00
7
How did the recent inflation report and Kevin Warsh’s comments affect monetary policy expectations?
22:00–26:54
8
How are Bitcoin, Ethereum and crypto reacting to the macro and AI shifts?
26:54–50:16
Speakers
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