February 24th, 2026: Ukraine Claws Back Ground As Russia’s Military Stalls & Another Round of Iran Diplomacy Ahead
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
In the middle of the night, a game-changer flew in the wrong direction, and home watching started to get exciting. In the meantime, we need some more. And the Hamburgers, who have two kinds of cheddar and jalapeno. In the meantime, two kinds of cheddar and jalapeno. Hamburgers, 695, and the same team, 495.
It's Tuesday, the 24th of February. Welcome to the President's Daily Brief. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, on the fourth anniversary, can you believe that? The fourth anniversary of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. New signs suggest Moscow's momentum may be fading. Russia's troop levels have plateaued, and Ukrainian forces are reclaiming territory. Later in the show, Ukraine hits a snag, though, on the diplomatic front, as Hungary blocks a major European Union loan package and new sanctions on Russia. Not a surprise, given Hungary's Viktor Orban is not adverse to doing Putin's bidding. Plus, the clock keeps ticking with Iran. U.S.
envoys are heading to Geneva for more indirect talks, even as the threat of American strikes loom on the horizon. And in today's Back of the Brief, the aftermath of El Mencho's killing triggers unrest in Mexico, with Americans in Puerto Vallarta told to shelter in place as flights are canceled and diverted. But first, today's PDB Spotlight. Four years ago today, Russian troops, tanks, and artillery began streaming across the Ukrainian border in what many analysts and Putin himself assumed would be a campaign measured in weeks, if not days. Columns advanced from multiple directions. They surged westward into Ukraine's eastern provinces from Russian territory while armored units drove south from Belarus toward the capital.
Missiles rained down across the country. Western intelligence warned that Kyiv could fall quickly. Of course, all the assumptions failed to capture the grit and determination of Ukraine's defenders, and the profound miscalculations, missteps, and misinformation inside the Kremlin. Four years later, the map looks very different from those early expectations. Russia occupies roughly one-fifth of Ukraine's territory, in some places less territory than it captured in those first days. The war has become Europe's largest land conflict since World War II, and in many ways resembles the grinding trench warfare of World War I. Hundreds of thousands have been killed or wounded, millions of Ukrainians have been displaced, and tens of billions of dollars in Western military aid have poured into Kiev.
But here's what stands out on this fourth anniversary. For the first time since the full-scale invasion began, Russia's war machine appears to have stopped growing. According to reporting this week, the number of Russian occupation troops inside Ukraine has plateaued over the past six months, holding steady at just a little over 700,000 personnel, including reserves. That figure has not increased, despite Moscow meeting its recruitment targets. The reason that's significant is that for much of this war, Russia relied on sheer mass, mobilizing additional troops, feeding manpower into meat grinder assaults, and accepting staggering casualties in exchange for incremental gains.
What signs indicate that Russia's military momentum in Ukraine is fading?
It was a brutal math problem. More bodies for those small territorial gains. But if recruitment is now merely replacing losses, not expanding the force, then the engine of expansion has stalled. A military that can't grow can't surge, and a military that can't surge struggles to break a hardened front line. And over the past few weeks, we've begun to see signs of that dynamic on the battlefield. Ukraine's air assault forces announced that they've regained control of eight settlements in recent days. Ukrainian forces say they've cleared Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups from more than 300 square kilometers of territory in that area. These aren't sweeping breakthroughs, to be sure. They don't fundamentally alter the map, but they are important.
They suggest that in certain sectors, Russian forces are no longer advancing and in some cases are being pushed back.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–3:32
2
What signs indicate that Russia's military momentum in Ukraine is fading?
3:32–5:51
3
How is Hungary impacting Ukraine's EU loan and sanctions efforts?
5:51–7:08
4
What are the implications of U.S. envoys heading to Geneva for Iran talks?
7:08–7:45
5
What recent events have caused unrest in Mexico following El Mencho's killing?
7:45–9:14
6
How has the battlefield situation evolved for Ukraine four years after the invasion?
9:14–22:05
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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