PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 18th, 2024: Syrian Rebels Disband & Iranian Nationals Charged Over Deadly Jordan Drone Strike
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What are the latest developments in Syria's rebel opposition?
First, the leader of the rebel opposition that overthrew Syria's Assad regime has announced plans to disband their militant militias and form a new national army, as they reportedly work to consolidate their power and, at least on paper, distance themselves from their radical past. Then, the U.S. Justice Department has charged two Iranian nationals in connection with a fatal drone strike in Jordan earlier this year that killed three U.S. service members and injured dozens more. But first, our afternoon spotlight. We'll begin with an update out of Syria, where the new regime replacing deposed dictator Assad is beginning to take shape. After establishing a transitional government in the immediate wake of Assad's ouster, the rebels are now moving to further consolidate their power and establish institutions that are built to last.
What is the significance of the new national army in Syria?
On Wednesday, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, leader of the top rebel group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is known as HTS, announced that Syria's rebel factions will be disbanded and their fighters will be trained to join a new national army under the direction of the Defense Ministry.
Why were Iranian nationals charged over the drone strike in Jordan?
The decision to dissolve the rebel groups is largely a strategic play aimed at easing international restrictions on their new transitional government. As we've discussed here on the PDB, HTS, a former arm of Al-Qaeda that used to be called the Nusra Front, is a U.S. and E.U. designated terror organization. While they've since tried to position themselves as moderates, the terror designation and the sanctions that come with it could significantly impede their plans to reform and rebuild Syria. Al-Jilani said Tuesday, quote, we have to adopt a state mentality, not an opposition mentality, end quote.
What reforms are being proposed by Syria's new leadership?
He called for international sanctions against Damascus to be lifted so refugees displaced by the civil war can return home. Separately, he spoke of the need to restore relations with the UK and US. Despite skepticism in the West about HTS's ability to de-radicalize after their sweeping victory over Assad, leaders in the US and Europe have sought to directly engage with Syria's transitional government. On Monday and Tuesday, officials from France, Germany, and the UK all traveled to Damascus for meetings with the country's new rulers, and officials in the US have also reportedly been in direct contact with HTS leaders. The EU, meanwhile, announced on Tuesday plans to reopen its delegation in Damascus.
Western powers are still reticent to lift sanctions, however, with most advocating a wait-and-see approach with regards to HTS and Al-Julani. They hope to see Al-Julani institute more comprehensive reforms to prove the group's rhetoric is actually sincere. For now, Al-Julani appears focused on consolidating the rebels' power.
How are Western powers responding to the changes in Syria?
Analysts from the Foundation for Defense of Democracies said in addition to distancing the transitional government from the radical past of the coalition, the move to dissolve the rebel groups serves to swiftly monopolize power in the hands of the state. Al-Jilani has also framed it as a way to build unity among Syria's many ethnic factions. Speaking with leaders from the country's Druze minority on Tuesday, Al-Jilani declared that, quote, Syria must remain united. There must be a social contract between the state and all religions to guarantee social justice, end quote.
What is the future of Syrian governance post-Assad?
Now, as an aside, we should also note that to further distance himself from his terrorist past, al-Jilani has recently reverted to going by his birth name, Ahmed al-Shahra. Al-Jilani was his assumed name as an Islamist fighter for al-Qaeda, ties that he claims to have renounced.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What are the latest developments in Syria's rebel opposition?
0:48–1:40
2
What is the significance of the new national army in Syria?
1:40–1:59
3
Why were Iranian nationals charged over the drone strike in Jordan?
1:59–2:38
4
What reforms are being proposed by Syria's new leadership?
2:38–3:44
5
How are Western powers responding to the changes in Syria?
3:44–4:21
6
What is the future of Syrian governance post-Assad?
4:21–10:44
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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