PDB Afternoon Bulletin | December 26th, 2024: Did Russian Air Defense Cause Deadly Azerbaijan Crash? & Pakistan Escalates Attacks On Taliban in Afghanistan
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What happened in the Azerbaijan Airlines crash?
It's Thursday, 26th December. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. Alright, it's, to be fair, the Late Afternoon Bulletin. I'm on the road still. It's the Where's Waldo game. Coming to you this week from East Asia. I'm Mike Baker. Your eyes and ears on the world stage. Let's get briefed.
What evidence links the crash to Russian air defense?
First, we'll look at the deadly crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines flight over Kazakhstan on Wednesday as evidence mounts that it was likely caused by a Russian air defense system. Then, Pakistan is escalating their fight against the Taliban in Afghanistan, unleashing a series of airstrikes that killed at least 46 people late Tuesday night. Now, it's just the latest incident to raise tensions with the Afghan Taliban government who, not surprisingly, vowed retaliation. But first, our afternoon spotlight. We'll begin with the Christmas Day tragedy out of Kazakhstan, where an Azerbaijan Airlines flight crashed on Wednesday in an incident suspected to be caused by Russian anti-aircraft fire.
What were the circumstances of the flight's diversion?
The flight was heading from Baku in Azerbaijan to Grozny in Russia, but was diverted for unknown reasons over an area where Moscow's air defenses have been engaged in intense aerial battles with Ukrainian drones in recent weeks. After turning around and flying east over the Caspian Sea, the plane struggled to stay airborne and ultimately went down over western Kazakhstan, killing at least 38 people. And that's according to a report from The Wall Street Journal. Miraculously, as many as 29 passengers survived the fiery crash landing, which was captured by locals on video. Suspicions soon fell on Russia, despite initial reports that the crash was caused by a mid-air collision with a flock of birds. Ukrainian national security officials subsequently said that intelligence suggested the flight was likely downed by the Russian military.
Osprey Flight Solutions, an aviation security firm, also conducted an initial assessment of the footage Wednesday evening, which they said implicated Russian military air defense systems due to what appeared to be shrapnel damage on the tail section of the airplane. They said such damage could not have been caused by birds, particularly when considering the altitude that the plane was flying at. By Thursday morning, four sources with knowledge of the preliminary findings of Azerbaijan's investigation confirmed to Reuters that the plane was indeed shot down by a Russian air defense system. They added that the plane's communications were paralyzed by electronic warfare systems as they attempted to approach Grozny in Chechnya, Russia.
How did Ukraine react to the crash?
The circumstances surrounding the flight's diversion over the Caspian Sea, which took it hundreds of miles off its planned route, were not immediately clear, but officials in Kyiv suggested it was due to a deliberate decision made by Russian officials. A senior national security official in Ukraine told The Wall Street Journal, quote, Russia should have closed the airspace over Grozny but failed to do so. The plane was damaged by the Russians and was sent to Kazakhstan instead of being urgently landed in Grozny to save lives. Ukraine's military has repeatedly targeted Russia's southern region over the past few months with military drones, a response to Moscow's relentless bombardment of Ukrainian cities.
The attacks have regularly triggered Russian air defenses, and Wednesday was no different, with the Russian Defense Ministry claiming to have shot down some 59 Ukrainian drones over several regions. Some were down in closed airspace over regions bordering Ukraine, and flights to Russia's Kazan airport were temporarily suspended on Wednesday due to the activity. But the airspace where the Azerbaijan Airlines flight was traveling reportedly remained open. An Azerbaijani source told Reuters, quote, No one claims that it was done on purpose. However, taking into account the established facts, Baku expects the Russian side to confess to the shooting down of the Azerbaijani aircraft, end quote.
What is the current situation regarding Russian air defenses?
Now, so far, the Kremlin is attempting to downplay the accusations, saying such speculations are inappropriate until the conclusion of the investigation. Leaders in Kazakhstan have also declined to place blame, saying on Thursday that the cause of the crash was still unknown.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What happened in the Azerbaijan Airlines crash?
0:12–0:31
2
What evidence links the crash to Russian air defense?
0:31–1:18
3
What were the circumstances of the flight's diversion?
1:18–2:58
4
How did Ukraine react to the crash?
2:58–4:25
5
What are the implications of Pakistan's airstrikes on the Taliban?
4:25
6
What is the current situation regarding Russian air defenses?
3:41–11:13
Speakers
1 identifiedMore from The President's Daily Brief
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