PDB Afternoon Bulletin | February 6th, 2026: Putin’s Oil Revenue Collapses & Top Russian General Shot In Moscow
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It's Friday, the 6th of February. Welcome to the PDB Afternoon Bulletin. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, it appears that the Kremlin is starting to feel real financial strain. New numbers show Russia's budget deficit widening sharply as oil and gas revenues plunge to their lowest levels of the Putin era. We'll look at what that might mean for Putin's war effort. Later in the show, a top Russian military intelligence officer was shot and seriously wounded in Moscow on Friday, marking the latest attack on Russia's top brass in the Russian capital. I'll have the details. But first, today's afternoon spotlight. We're continuing to monitor the Russian economy, and today we're seeing some of the clearest signals yet that the long-term financial erosion that we've been talking about for months now is showing up directly in the numbers that matter most to the Kremlin.
According to new reporting, Russia's federal budget deficit is now on track to almost triple this year, widening far beyond what the government initially planned as oil and gas revenues continue to slide. That's a significant shift for a system that has long relied on energy income as the backbone of its GDP, funding everything from pensions and regional subsidies to defense spending and, of course, Putin's war machine. As regular listeners know, oil and gas revenues have historically been the single largest source of income for the Russian state. But President Trump issued aggressive sanctions on Russian oil exports back in October. Since then, Russia's pool of foreign buyers has shrunk, with countries Moscow once relied on, including India, pulling back under sanctions pressure.
According to a report from Reuters, internal budget estimates now show Moscow facing a much larger gap between what it's taking in and what it's committing to spend. That's not good financial planning. Specifically, the projected deficit is now nearly three times higher than the level originally forecast by the government, rising to roughly 3.5% to 4.4% of gross domestic product, up from a target of about 1.6%. That shortfall is emerging even as the Kremlin maintains elevated wartime spending levels. Separate reporting underscores just how acute the pressure has become. According to recent data from Russia's own finance ministry, oil and gas revenues are down by roughly 50% year over year, and the current rates now amount to just about 2% of Russia's GDP.
What financial strains is the Kremlin facing in 2026?
That's the lowest level seen during Vladimir Putin's presidency. That decline isn't limited to export duties alone. It also includes mineral extraction taxes and pipeline fees, some of the most politically important and reliable sources of state income for the Kremlin. Even continued exports to China have not been enough to offset the damage. Russian crude is still moving, but increasingly at steep discounts and higher transport costs, with sanctions-related inefficiencies further eating into profits. At the same time, exports to other major buyers, including India, have shown signs of decline, further narrowing Moscow's revenue base. For example, a source told Reuters that Russian officials expect Indian purchases of Russian oil to decline an additional 30 percent this year, following pressure from the Trump administration.
Total budget revenues are now expected to fall by about 6% to roughly 37.9 trillion rubles, marking a significant contraction for an economy already plagued by high interest rates and labor shortages. At the same time, overall expenditures may exceed planned levels by anywhere from 4.1% to 8.4%. That's according to the same internal estimates. However, despite the dismal numbers, Kremlin sources are putting on a happy face, claiming to Reuters that the situation is not catastrophic and remains manageable. But analysts that spoke to Reuters warned that at the current pace, Russia's remaining fiscal reserves, estimated at about 4.1 trillion rubles, that's about 53 billion U.S. dollars, could be largely depleted within a year.
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