PDB Situation Report | December 21st, 2024: Ceasefire Looms in Israel & Ukraine’s Key Moments in 2024
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What is the latest on the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations?
Welcome to the PDB Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. Today, we begin in Israel, where a breakthrough might just be on the horizon, a hostage and ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. We'll get the latest from Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. And later in the program, we'll review how the war in Ukraine has progressed throughout its third year. That's right, a third year. Examining the major events of 2024 and what 2025 just might hold. Open source intelligence analyst and friend of the show, Ryan McBath, will join us to break it down. But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight.
Now, after months of stalemates, after back and forths and failed efforts, Israel and Hamas might finally be nearing a ceasefire to end the ongoing 14-month war. Officials are urging caution, as they should, as critical details still need to be hammered out. However, there is a renewed sense of optimism, which, frankly, has been absent for quite some time. Reports from Egyptian and Hamas sources indicate the potential deal would roll out in phases. It includes a cessation of hostilities, the exchange of Israeli hostages for Palestinian prisoners, and an increase in humanitarian aid to Gaza. Now, Israel estimates that Hamas is holding some 100 hostages, though tragically, over one-third of them are believed to have been killed.
This possible agreement may mark a turning point in a conflict that has destabilized the region and been devastating for the Palestinians and Israeli people alike. For more on this, let me bring in Jonathan Schanzer. He's the executive director of the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies. Jonathan, thanks very much for taking the time to join us here on The Situation Report. Hey, it's my pleasure. Let's start with a very big question. It's sort of at the 30,000-foot level, and then we can drill down from there. But what... do you think accounts for the apparent progress with the ceasefire negotiations right now?
Well, it's a good question. I mean, I think, number one, Israel's winning. And you can see it across all of the domains where Israel's been fighting. Hamas is on its last leg, 23 out of 24 brigades destroyed, really virtually no military infrastructure above ground to speak of. The Israelis are slowly and methodically moving through those tunnels, mapping them and destroying them after they make sure that there are no hostages there. So that's working out, I think, pretty well from the Israeli perspective. They also have built this, it's called the Nitzarim Corridor. It's this new, essentially elongated base that cuts across, I guess, around two-thirds of the way up Gaza. You see this large corridor, now a major base. And so the Israelis have a semi-permanent structure there that is maintaining control over Gaza. Hamas just cannot compete at this point. They've been really knocked for a loop.
But then you've got the weakening of Hezbollah in the north, which these are, of course, Hamas' longtime allies. They've just agreed to raise the white flag. They don't want to fight Israel any longer because the Israelis just beat them up pretty good, too. Their leadership has been utterly gutted. And on top of that, the Israelis have destroyed a vast amount of their military infrastructure. And so that's all good. And then on top of that, you see the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria. And the Israelis also took out the air defenses of Iran back in late October. They've taken out the ballistic missile production facilities. There's really nothing left right now of that support structure that Hamas once had. That means that the Israelis have the upper hand.
And then on top of that, you got Donald Trump coming in saying, I want this war over before January 20th or there's going to be hell to pay. I think that's got everybody quaking in their boots. So I think right now momentum is shifting toward the end of the war. That's a good thing.
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