PDB Situation Report | May 29th, 2026: U.S. And Iran Reach Draft Agreement & Cuba Feels The Squeeze
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What recent agreement has the U.S. and Iran reached regarding the ceasefire?
Welcome to the PDB's Situation Report. I'm Mike Baker, your eyes and ears on the world stage. All right, let's get briefed. First up, the U.S. and Iran have reportedly, supposedly, perhaps reached a draft agreement. Oh, here we go. To extend their ceasefire for another 60 days, pending, of course, President Trump's approval. We'll get analysis from David Dowd. He's the senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a very good friend of the show, by the way. Later in the show, Cuba's power grid is under growing strain. We've talked about that here on the PDB. And now the Trump administration is opening a new front with criminal charges against former Cuban leader Raul Castro. We'll speak to retired Marine Corps intelligence officer Hal Kemper about the implications for Cuba's future and America's broader strategy in the region.
But first, today's Situation Report Spotlight. Despite recent flare ups in the Strait of Hormuz, Washington and Tehran have supposedly reached a memorandum of understanding.
How does the extension of the ceasefire impact Iran's nuclear program?
And anyone who's fond of acronyms know that that's MOU. The memorandum would extend the ceasefire for another 60 days to allow for further negotiations to try to find some agreement somewhere. One of the first items on the agenda would be addressing Iran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium, a key sticking point, of course, in any long-term deal. The MOU is still awaiting President Trump's signature and, of course, needs final sign-off by the existing Iranian leadership. Meanwhile, the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah appears to be heating up once again, with Israeli forces reportedly pushing deeper into southern Lebanon as fighting intensifies along the border. Joining me now for more on all this is David Dowd.
He's the senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies. David, thank you very much for coming back on The Situation Report. I look forward to it every time, Mike. Thank you, man. Well, look, let me ask you this. Am I wrong to be cynical or pessimistic about this latest report of a potential deal? Now they're talking about a 60 day agreement to extend whatever it is you call a ceasefire where they haven't stopped firing.
Well, I think it depends what you're looking for. And it seems like this is the recurring theme every time you've asked me about pessimism or optimism.
What are the implications of criminal charges against Raúl Castro for Cuba?
Look, are we looking for a permanent solution to the problems between the United States and Iran? If that's what we're looking for, then absolutely you should be pessimistic. I think what Iran is looking for here, what both sides appear to be looking for, is an off-ramp from the conflict, not a permanent resolution to uh to the uh outstanding issues i mean look even now the 60-day ceasefire if it even happens um it's meant to uh push down the road the resolution of certain issues like the nuclear issue, you know, very tiny issue. Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons, enriching uranium, its support of militias, Hezbollah, you know, Palestinian Islamic Jihadi, Iraqi Shia militia, so on and so forth. These are not things that Iran will ever permanently abandon because they are intrinsically tied to its state ideology, which is currently expansionist under this Khomeinist regime.
Iran has adopted an expansionist regional policy. It wants to export the revolution in the sense of creating regional hegemony under Iranian dominance and both the nuclear weapons, or pursuit of nuclear weapons, ballistic missiles, its own personal armament, and the support of militias, both to interfere in the domestic politics of the countries where they operate, to kind of capture those domestic politics, and to project power regionally against Iran's enemies, these are part and parcel of that expansionism. So if you're asking Iran to abandon those things permanently, what you're saying is, Iran, stop being Iran as you are today, and I don't think that's going to happen. And from our end, from the United States end, I think we're just trying to get out of the conflict, and we're trying to look like we've scored a W, and we won't have unless these issues that I just highlighted are permanently resolved.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What recent agreement has the U.S. and Iran reached regarding the ceasefire?
0:12–1:13
2
How does the extension of the ceasefire impact Iran's nuclear program?
1:13–2:34
3
What are the implications of criminal charges against Raúl Castro for Cuba?
2:34–5:18
4
How is Cuba's power grid affected by ongoing fuel shortages?
5:18–6:47
5
What insights does Hal Kempfer provide on U.S. policy toward Cuba?
6:47–8:10
6
How does the U.S. strategy in Cuba compare to its approach in Venezuela?
8:10–9:45
7
What potential outcomes could arise from the current situation in Cuba?
9:45–11:23
8
How might the U.S. and its allies respond to changes in Cuba's leadership?
11:23–1:04:59
Speakers
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