Predictions For 2022
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
It's the Real Estate Podcast brought to you by Ray White, the largest real estate and property group in Australasia.
And welcome to another episode of the Real Estate Podcast. We're talking to Simon Kustenmaha from the Demographics Group. Welcome, Simon, to the Real Estate Podcast. Thanks for having me. Hey, I thought since you're the co-founder and director of research there, I thought the demographics group would be great to have on the podcast to look kind of into the future. Well, into 2022 at least, because you've come up with a bunch of things that might be quite relevant for this year. Although the funny thing is with predictions, it's really taken that pandemic for us to learn that anything is possible and predictions don't always ring true, right? right?
Absolutely. It is a bit of a challenge to make predictions and particularly to make them in public.
How did Australia perform on COVID metrics compared to other countries?
But, you know, we figured why not give it a shot today?
Well, there's nothing wrong with having confidence about doing this. And since we're talking about the pandemic, let's look at COVID and more importantly, the way that the world might view Australia's handling of the pandemic. And there's a little bit of good news here to feel some national pride.
Which two metrics will the world use to judge pandemic responses?
So Simon, why is there good news here?
Well, the good news here is that the world will judge all of the countries on the globe basically on just two very simple metrics once this whole thing is over. The first metric will be the number of deaths per one million people. And Australia is performing absolutely beautifully on this metric. you are pretty much 40 times more likely to be alive by the simple fact that you live in Australia compared to the United States or compared to Europe. So whatever the pain of the lockdowns were to you, to your business, as a country, we managed to keep our population healthy and alive. So that metric will be front of mind when the world judges the performance of countries throughout the pandemic. The second metric that countries will look at is the vaccination rate.
They will look at countries and say, well, how well did the countries actually perform in protecting themselves or how well did the state protect their citizens by making vaccines available? And we have a fantastic uptake of the vaccine, even though we started about half a year later than the US with actually getting our hands on vaccines. So Australia is performing really well on those two tasks. Maybe if you wanted to throw in a third metric that people would be looking at, it would be the change of GDP before and post-COVID, whenever post-COVID will be available.
You know, it's interesting, too, because one of the things about stats, there isn't any weight added to political posturing or fighting among MPs. It's only the metrics that count. And those two metrics that you have talked about are the most important. It's kind of much like it doesn't matter how much or how well a rugby team played coming second. It's only the stat of the winner that counts. Absolutely.
And at the end, when you look back at, you know, hundreds of years of rugby results, you look at the champions. You look at that. You won't look at the, you know, ups and downs of a game. And at the moment, we're still in the game of COVID and people get really upset about a certain premier, a certain prime minister, whatever it is, it doesn't.
Why hasn't political messaging highlighted Australia's low COVID death rate?
matter in the long run in the long run you look at hard cold numbers and judge a country's performance based on a terribly simple metric you know simon i have not heard any politician it may have been spoken about but that statistic of 40 times more likely to die if you're living in america versus living in australia i haven't heard any politician mention that
It's surprising to me because we are performing really well. I think there is a certain, I don't know, tendency, if you will, in society that might reach the politicians of, you know, you don't want to talk about this in a positive way because you want to keep up the narrative of this being extremely serious and you have to take this whole thing, be very careful in how you approach the topic.
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Chapters
8 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:02–0:59
2
How did Australia perform on COVID metrics compared to other countries?
0:59–1:25
3
Which two metrics will the world use to judge pandemic responses?
1:25–3:50
4
Why hasn't political messaging highlighted Australia's low COVID death rate?
3:50–5:09
5
Are millennials moving from apartments to family homes and why?
5:09–8:45
6
How is hybrid work changing where people choose to live?
8:45–10:25
7
What challenges do regional towns face from decentralisation and population shifts?
10:25–11:42
8
Who benefits and who loses from the pandemic-driven housing shifts?
11:42–12:02
Speakers
3 identifiedMore from Aussie Real Estate Podcast
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