Chapter 1: What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Chapter 2: What challenges do newcomers face in commercial property negotiations?
When I first started looking into commercial property many years ago, I found it incredibly hard to negotiate because I didn't know what things were priced at. But the biggest tip that got me in the right direction was understanding the leasing market and what rental rates should be. So if you negotiate on a property that's got inflated rent, you're gonna be paying too much.
Like for example, if your rent is 20% over market and you offer, on that rent, that means you paid 20% too much.
Chapter 3: How has online shopping impacted brick-and-mortar retail during the pandemic?
So you've actually got to, before you've even put an offer in, you've got to understand what the true market rent is, back calculate it. Whatever the day one rent is, it doesn't matter. It's about the true market rent because that's what happens if your tenant leaves and you've got to find a new tenant and offer from that base. You know, it's difficult.
And then, you know, this is why there's professionals in this space. Like this is not just finding what the latest four bedroom house sold for and pay a similar amount to it. You really got to do the math.
Chapter 4: What are the implications of the declining fertility rate on real estate?
If you can't understand the local leasing market, then you're probably not going to be able to offer from a position of strength.
There's more retail spending without a doubt, which is taking place online. And that is a bit of a problem for bricks and mortar, right?
Absolutely. So what we've seen in the pandemic is that lots and lots of people became online shoppers for the first time. That means before the pandemic, we had 6% of all retail sales taking place online in Australia. During the first lockdown in March, April 2020, that shot up to 11%, so an increase of 5%.
But then, once Australia was open in mid-2020, when in theory people could have gone back to shop wherever they wanted, we didn't go back to 6%.
seven percent we created a new plateau at around nine percent so we really shifted a lot of dollars from brick and mortar into online store that is not too bad from a workforce perspective because it just means we need fewer shop assistants and we need more warehouse workers more delivery drivers but it is a problem for main streets because it does ultimately mean that more and more brick and mortar stores you
we're not talking about bunnings or big shops but small stores that they will have to close their doors because they operate on margins of five to ten percent or something like this and so if if their sales go down 15 it doesn't make any sense for them to stay open so then you have empty shops on a main street and that is the death of a main street if you are a shop owner in a main street you see any kind of store being available for lease that is a catastrophe for
you it means that your main street becomes less attractive that it becomes less of a destination therefore all the local governments all the you know business associations whatever you have in your in your local area they must band together to fill those shops be it with some sort of discounted retail you know make it into a ball pit make it into a free community center arts installation whatever it is you must not have empty storefronts at your main street if you want to continue to have the main street as a
destination.
And just to finish up, Simon, let's go from bricks and mortar to the fertility rate because there's some data around that is showing that the fertility rate has actually fallen to an all-time low of 1.58 kids per woman in 2020. So the impact of COVID will only be seen in data for the year 2021, but that's likely to continue?
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Chapter 5: How does lifestyle attract buyers to the Sunshine Coast?
Or do you think once things start to get a little bit back to normal, that might be reined back?
So at the start of the pandemic, which was meant to be the only lockdown, the first lockdown, people said, surely there'll be a corona baby boom in nine months time, as if the only thing we were going to do in lockdown is to procreate. So as a demographer, that doesn't come as a surprise that this didn't happen.
In times of economic uncertainty, in times of historic pandemics, there were always fewer rather than more births simply because, you know, if you're uncertain about your income, if you're uncertain about your economic future, you're not going to risk putting a very expensive thing into the world. So you're not doing this. And we will see the birth rate drop even more.
The low birth rate would be a problem if we didn't have migration. We are a migrant country, so the low birth rate actually doesn't bother me at all because we will just get young, skilled workers through our doors when they are in their early 20s.
Chapter 6: What factors are driving growth in the Sunshine Coast real estate market?
which is just fine. And it is economically even a better bet because people cost the state money before they earn taxes and they cost the state money after they earn taxes. So really, you are by importing a skilled young migrant, you are saving money compared to, you know, creating a skilled worker yourself on shore.
And what do you see as having played major factors in driving that Sunshine Coast growth?
It's the attraction to the lifestyle, primarily. It's just beautiful beaches. It just gives people choices as to where they want to live. So it's been a huge magnet for both buyers and renters, and also for people that really like that hinterland area.
So if you want the quiet life, but yet access to the beach and access to all the amenities, you can be sort of half an hour in Nambour or Montville and drive to those places. So you've got, you know, cafe culture, you've got the retail all there, but you've also got, you know, very, very attractive lifestyle choices. A couple of the other reasons why it's driven so strongly is infrastructure.
You've seen the Sunshine Coast University Hospital has been improved in Bertinia, just north of Caloundra.
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Chapter 7: What advice is given to first-time homebuyers in the current market?
That's been revitalised. There's been major upgrades to the Maroochydore Town Centre. So there's a lot more cosmopolitan lifestyle on offer there. And the other big factor that's coming is the Olympics. There's going to be a number of Olympic events held in 2032 when that comes to the area. And the other factor you've seen is, I guess, the luxury end of the market.
You know, people like Gina Reinhart, they spent $34 million on a beach house in Box Street in Butterham. And you've also seen around Sunshine Beast, a number of sales go above the $10 million plus mark. So that top end of the market is really dragging up the median prices as well.
And a lot of Sydney-siders are realising, or Melbourne-siders are realising that they can fly there to have their fantastic holiday house and then still commute back to the cities when they need to.
And with your first home, you had three children in tow. So that era is probably a bit of a distant memory, but what can you remember about that?
My situation was quite strange. My husband and I moved overseas for over a decade. When we came back to Australia, we were suddenly almost 40-year-old first homebuyers with three children. And I think the thing to remember is while everybody around us had sort of bought their house 10 years prior because we'd lived abroad, we hadn't done that.
And what it meant was that there was no way of catching up. And I see that amongst first-time buyers all the time now, which is why I think If it's about buying an investment property to start off in the market, if you can do that, that's a better thing to do than doing absolutely nothing, I suppose. Because for us, we were just overwhelmed and we were happy to compromise on space.
But the reality was we had three children, so we could only compromise to a certain extent.
in that regard and that's why I really implore first-time buyers to really think about the size of the footprint they're buying in the postcode that they're buying in the type of property you know at the moment units are much more affordable than houses and that won't remain that way forever but it is the case at the moment and I do think it's an opportunity for first-time buyers if they can bend their mind around not having a big house as we said on a quarter acre block you could get an amazing opportunity with a unit that could be a fantastic investment property.
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