Chapter 1: Is the US-Iran War nearing a resolution?
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Head to join.whoop.com slash politics to get started with Whoop today. Welcome to The Rest Is Politics U.S. with me, Katty Kay, in Washington, D.C., the nation's capital.
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Chapter 2: What role does Donald Trump play in the Ohio and Indiana primaries?
Maybe the war is coming to an end because the White House seems to think it's getting close. They have a one page deadline.
deal on the table i guess one page is means that the president might actually read it the white house uh hopes that this means that they can get out of this and focus on other things we're also going to talk though about the battle within the war that's marco rubio versus jd vance there's a lot of chatter here in washington at the moment and around the country about marco rubio on the rise he's on his way off to see the pope so we're going to talk about the vance rubio battle and how the war has played into that is it vance or rubio who's closer to antony's will
chipper and in the second half we're going to talk about the midterms and how trump is using primaries around the country as a revenge tour and he is winning guys we will talk about indiana we do not usually talk about the indiana state senate primaries on this program but today we'll dive into that but before that anthony we've got some very exciting news to share
We're going on tour, you and me.
That's right. We're hitting the road this October. It's going to be all across America. Caddy, we're going to Atlanta, Toronto. Not in America, but love Toronto.
51st State, so hey.
Well, I don't want to say that to the Canadians. I love the fact that we have a separate country to our north. But anyway, Atlanta, Toronto, Boston, Washington, D.C., Minneapolis, Chicago, and of course, my hometown, New York. Man, am I excited about this. It's going to be a set of live shows. I can't wait to see you there.
This will be right in the final stretch of the midterms caddy, and we'll be breaking down everything, the drama, the turning points, the stakes. And I'm super excited about this. And of course, in the second half of the shows, we'll be taking people's questions live from stage. And Katty and I have done this before, so we're really looking forward to doing it again.
Yeah, we love doing these shows. We have done a show in Washington, New York. Those were pretty sold out very quickly. So sign up for tickets. General sale goes live on Friday, the 15th of May. But if you want to make sure you can get a ticket, then sign up to become a founding member. That's one of the benefits of being a founding member.
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Chapter 3: How is the conflict in Iran influencing the next presidential election?
And he said, listen, he thinks there's going to be so much pushback against this because however much Fox News tries to paint this as a win, it is so clearly not a win for the United States that he wouldn't be surprised if we wake up tomorrow morning and Trump says, actually, that's off the table because it's a laughable idea that this could possibly be painted as victory after everything America's put into this.
Again, I think it's important to remind people there's 400 kilograms of enriched uranium. Trump wants that surrendered as a precondition to the deal. The Iranians probably can't accept that. I think the new Khamenei probably cannot accept that for political reasons. So I think that's a big sticking point in the deal.
You've got the situation going on in Lebanon, which I think is very important for people. Iran has consistently refused any wider deal. It doesn't include halting Israel's fight with Hezbollah. And by the way, the Israelis, let's just go to them. The polling in Israel, the IDI poll, Katty, 59% of the Israelis opposed ending the deal. So again, the hermit kingdom opposed.
Used to be China, but it's now the United States, the hermit kingdom with one sole ally left. Israel is diverging in terms of what their political sentiment is and what their prime minister wants. And, you know, General Kane pointed this out yesterday, Secretary of Defense Hexeth yesterday, that this ceasefire is Swiss cheese. But it's a win. It's a win.
But the market is responding to Donald Trump. Which he knows. If you look at market activity, the market's telling you that Trump wants out and he's going to get us out some way, somehow. And whether it's a one-page memorandum or not, he's getting out. And then I guess, what happens? Do the Democrats capitalize on this and say, hey, the JCPOA was way better than what Trump did?
He spent $100 billion on the road to nowhere? Or the Democrats are just in complete disarray?
Before we get to that, can I just say one thing? The markets are going to try and make money out of this. And so they're loving the volatility of the past, whatever it is, eight weeks that this has been going on, right? Every time there's a spike in oil prices or every time there's a drop, we're seeing that kind of volatility. But the other thing is that do you really believe that?
that let's say this is a, he'll frame this as we're gonna get the straights open and we're gonna deal with all of those other complicated things later on. And there's an argument. I've heard diplomats say they were crazy to go to Islamabad and try and put everything on the table and deal with everything in the space of a one-day meeting. You just can't do that. It's far too complicated.
So actually it's better to deal with the urgent thing first, which is the straight, and then deal with the other stuff later. But do you think Trump is going to have the patience and the engagement and the involvement to deal with that other stuff?
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Chapter 4: What is the significance of the one-page memo regarding Iran?
The fact that actually all we're doing is saying, okay, you have to delay the enrichment for 12 years. Well, they need 12 years anyway to rebuild the facilities. So that kind of suits Iran fine. They will rebuild those facilities. They have the scientists, they have the know-how, they're going to find a way to do it.
The fact that you haven't dealt with the proxies, I mean, the inconsistencies in this are extraordinary. He can stand up there in the rose pavement and say, this is a win because we've reopened the Straits of Hormuz. But guess what? The Straits of Hormuz, as we all know, were open in January anyway, and it didn't cost $200 billion and everything we outlined in the last program to get this far.
And I think here's the political risk, I think. I think Democrats will go after this. Of course, they will. And if they're smart, I think what they focus on is not the JCPOA. They focus on how much this has cost America in terms of ammunitions and injuries and effects on bases in the region and the amount of money that it has cost to get to the same position that we were in.
But I think the problem for Trump is that he sold himself and the team around him, and we're going to get into Vance and Rubio because I think they're falling into the same trap. They sold themselves on being a new kind of politician who told it as it is. And Americans aren't stupid. They know they're being spun.
And if Trump stands up there in the rose pavement and sells this as a win, the American public will know that that's not true. They'll know this is a win for Iran. And they'll know that they are being spun and they're getting word salads and dodgy language.
And it makes the Trump team look like exactly the kind of politicians that Americans have come to hate because they always feel that's what politicians do. It's politico speak. And I think that doesn't play well for Donald Trump.
We'll go to Rubio and Vance now. I think it's important, but I just think the JCPOA was a better non-proliferation agreement than the one that Trump is going to end up with, and that's the great irony.
With a huge amount of damage, that shouldn't be underplayed.
Yeah, we'll watch these hypocritical talking heads defend it. But, Katty, go to my favorite two Catholics. Rubio and Vance, but they're really not my favorite two Catholics. But please tell us the drama that's going on and the rumors, Katty K. Spill tea, Katty. Spill tea.
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Chapter 5: How are JD Vance and Marco Rubio positioned in the Republican landscape?
Vance has handled it. I don't think he was fine in the press room. He joked with the press. He answered a question in Spanish. It was good. I'm being snarky when I talk about his suit. But so the argument for Rubio is that and here's the main argument. He can win MAGA voters because he's done enough to shore up his bona fides with Donald Trump. But he can also win non MAGA voters and Democrats.
J.D. Vance in a way that J.D. Vance can. There's a group called Deep Root Analytics as a GOP polling firm. They've looked at this and they've shown that more non-MAGA voters would never vote for Vance than would never vote for Rubio. So Rubio's star in Washington, D.C., a little bit quietly on the rise as he flies off to meet the pope.
That's going to be a fun trip for him because Donald Trump again trashed the pope this week. What do you think? I know what you think. You think they're both in the wood chipper, and I think you might be right, but I think so for different reasons.
Well, no, I think we're going to take out Vance first.
Okay.
Okay, because Vance, again, I'm in Trump speak again. I am super pissed off. Shot was by my ear. I picked Vance 72 hours later. I got $300 million from Teal and Musk, and I ended up with the Manchurian candidate next to me, and I don't like the guy. And so I'm going to put him in the wood chipper, and I'm going to annihilate all Catholics because of him.
Vance is complaining about this privately, by the way. And Tucker Carlson has said this to the New York Times, that this has been going on since day one. Now, to know Donald Trump is to know that for certain he's doing this to Vance. And I'm sure Vance is on the phone with his prologue arc buddy saying, WTF, guys, what did you get me into? This guy's trying to kill me. It's a full on patricide.
OK, so that's Vance. OK, we'll put him over there. And what's Vance's weakness with the voters? I am going to pat us on the back because I said eight months ago, the guy's going into Woodchipper. He's halfway through the Fargo Woodchipper. Okay, so now let's go to what's going on with the Vatican because this is where I'm going to spill a little tea. I know that congressional leadership...
has gone to Rubio and congressional leadership has even gone to Trump and said, guys, Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, these are blue collar working class Catholics.
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Chapter 6: What strategies is Trump using for his 'revenge tour' in the primaries?
He has told people he's not running if Vance runs. Now, Vance has dropped in the prediction markets. But, Cady, this is the Republican Party still. And the vice president. whether it's Bob Dole, George Herbert Walker Bush, the vice president, even Walter Mondale on the side of the Democrats, the vice president generally gets the nod.
The only thing is Vance was in Iowa, Iowa, no coincidence this week. He sounds like he has a little bit of a Kamala Harris problem because he's out in Iowa telling these good Midwesterners, it's all going great. Donald Trump's the greatest president ever. But there is more work to be done. The moment he says, but there's more work to be done.
That is the Kamala Harris problem that he doesn't know how he's got. He's the conundrum of all vice presidents. And it's particularly difficult with this president because he doesn't want a single iota of disloyalty. So there is Vance out there trying to say, OK, I really sign up to everything Donald Trump has done, but I'm also my own man and I will do things differently.
And it's not going to be, you know, Trump 3.0. If you will let me. And that's the kind of code that he's got to get across. But it's a super hard one to do. Kamala Harris couldn't pull it off with Joe Biden. I'm not sure that J.D. Vance is going to be able to distance him enough himself enough. I think you're right. Probably Vance and Rubio end up in the wood chipper.
But I think it's a slightly different reason. I think it's because Trump is putting his own. record into the wood chipper. And if you are running as an heir to Trump, which either of these men will have to do unless they break with him spectacularly between now and 2028, which they're not going to do.
If you're running as an heir to Trump, if things are in 2028, anything like what they are today, which we don't know if there's two years to go, right? It could be very different. It could all be going swimmingly. It's going to be difficult for a Republican to get elected, any Republican to get elected, but particularly one who is associated with Donald Trump.
So I'm going to make a prediction and then I'm going to ask you a question. So I'm going to predict on this podcast that Trump fires Marco Rubio.
Might do him a favor, actually.
Maybe, but he's going to try to fire and disgrace him before the end of the term. And so that will be the way to knock Rubio around. And Trump is emboldened by what happened in Indianapolis, where what he says goes in the Republican Party. And just to remind people, Trump went after a few state senators. He's going to be emboldened by that. We'll talk about that in the second half.
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Chapter 7: How does the Indiana state Senate election reflect Trump's influence?
So he's going to demote him first. OK, and then he's going to eviscerate him later in the term. And I predict that that will happen. And that will be the take to Vance gone first, dispatching him and then Rubio.
OK, we're going to take a break and quickly come back and talk about the night of the long knives. Trump exacts revenge in Indiana.
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To get the best discount on your NordVPN plan, go to nordvpn.com slash tripus. You'll get four extra months free on the two-year plan, plus a 30-day money-back guarantee. The link's in the episode description. Welcome back to The Rest is Politics. US, we're going to talk about the midterms.
Yes, they're not until November, but there was a very big test of Donald Trump's power over the Republican Party that is taking place right now. We had elections. Tuesdays are always Election Day in America. Tuesday, we had elections in Indiana. And Trump had backed a bunch of primary challenges against seven Republican state senators who had rejected his calls for them to redistrict
indiana in the run-up to the midterm election so there's this big redistricting campaign going on around the country texas said to donald trump yep mr trump will do it florida said to mr trump yep mr trump will do it your little dog imitation that you do there that sounded more like a duck actually it's more like there you go it's so revolting but indiana comes back like a lion
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Chapter 8: What are the implications of Trump's actions for the future of the GOP?
So that's the base, you saw it right there, the MAGA base. If you want to know how many there are, if you want to know who they are, you needed to be in Indiana on Tuesday. The geobase is still as tied to Donald Trump as it ever was. But all of the polls that we've spoken about over the last few weeks have shown us that the rest of the country is moving away from Donald Trump as fast as it can.
So is Ron DeSantis in that scenario the candidate who can square the circle? Can he stay close to Trump enough? to win the presidential nomination in 2028, but also persuade a general electorate that there is daylight between him and Trump's policies. Do you think he can do that?
I don't think he can do that. No, I just don't think he has the right personality.
I don't think he's a skilled enough politician to do that.
He doesn't have the right personality. Also, he's in a debate when Gavin Newsom cleaned his clock. He went on Hattie's podcast to explain how he beat Gavin Newsom. When you're getting your ass kicked, One of the best ways to prevent yourself from getting your ass kicked again is to admit you got your ass kicked, okay? And then you say, okay, I got my ass kicked. I got to go back and train, right?
You know, when Apollo Creed beat Rocky, he didn't pretend that he beat Apollo Creed. He went out and retrained. This is DeSantis' problem. He'll have the money. He has a good brand. Good national brand. Florida is coming up aces, particularly with Mondani crushing people in New York. I think what Mondani did to Ken Griffin, the billionaire hedge fund manager, was absurd.
And Griffin called him out on it at the Milken Conference this week. And also, he put the guy in danger. I don't even know why he would do that. And now you're not going to get that building built, which is tens of thousands of potential jobs in the city. But separate topic. But I just don't think DeSantis... has the personality. Ready? Right. He's Nixonian weird, Caddy K.
Yeah, he's a little weird. And he wears white Wellingtons. You can't be president and wear white Wellingtons when you're filmed on the beach.
That's some weird stuff, right? That was like Nixon with the black socks on the beach when he was walking with Bebe Rebozo. You know what I'm saying? Doesn't work. Also, you know, I have to fully confess that DeSantis has bashed me a few times. So I could be biased. Oh. I could be biased.
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