506. Trump Attacks Iran: What Happens Now?
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What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
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Welcome to Arrest This Politics special on US-Israeli attacks on Iran. Operation Epic Fury is underway. Sounds like very much something written by Donald Trump or Hexeth. And to think that just two days ago in Geneva there were talks going on And the Armani mediator was heading to Washington to report on progress. And now we are with some pretty major bombing underway. Rory, where do you want to start?
Well, I think let's start with, for people who are interested in a kind of granular US view, maybe look back at the recent leading interview that we did with Rob Malley. And just to remind people who are listening, Rob Malley was... the lead negotiator on the JCPOA, which was the old Iran nuclear deal and was Obama's point man and then Biden's point man on Iran. And we obviously got him on because the US fleet has been gathering around Iran for months now, much in the way that it did in Venezuela. So people remember there was a lot of false alarms around Venezuela, people very concerned that This enormous American military, naval, and air presence, marine presence had ended up around Venezuela. But for weeks, nothing really happened.
And then the strike occurred. And the same pattern roughly has been followed in Iran.
What triggered the recent US-Israel attacks on Iran?
So over the last weeks and months, more and more American assets have been moved into the region. And there was a real sense, actually, even when the strike happened in Venezuela, of people saying, oh, I'm surprised it's Venezuela. I thought they would be doing Iran first. When we did a recording, I think a month ago, we were talking about why it might not have happened yet. There was a speculation that Israel felt it wasn't quite ready. I'm not getting into the rights or wrongs of this yet. We're getting the rights wrong. I'm just talking about the logistics, the tactics. One argument was that Israel wasn't quite ready. Its defenses weren't quite ready. Another argument was that the Gulf countries were holding off
and that they didn't really want a war breaking out and that they'd put pressure on Trump to hold off. And by the time we interviewed Rob Malley, there was a rather sort of striking moment, which was rather sort of good quote, which we've just been reminded of by our team, which is Rob said, I would not be at all surprised if by the end of this podcast, you tell me, oh, we've just had a news bulletin that a deal has been struck, a nuclear deal has been struck, and President Trump has announced that it's the best deal that's ever been negotiated with anyone anywhere for the last 4,000 years. Or if you told me at the end of this, oh, we've just got a news bulletin that President Trump has ordered strikes on Iran and strikes against military political targets.
Over to you.
Yeah, and he also said that there was some method in this madness because, of course, unpredictability was a useful weapon. But I think we have seen this coming recently. I read something just a few days ago when I was in Ukraine, and it was that some of the kit that has been sent as this build-up, two-thirds of the U.S. 's E-3 command-and-control aircraft, Somebody said this would totally not be required just for PR in the way that some of the Armada might be. I think the other point to make, Rory, is that, you know, one of the things I kept hearing in Ukraine was that these negotiations with Wyckoff and Kushner are just fake. They're for show. And you sort of feel it's been the same with this. The Iranians turn up, the Americans tell them to capitulate, the Iranians say no, and they go away.
And there was a very interesting, there's this guy, I don't know if you follow this guy, Trita Parsi from the Quincy Institute, who seems to be like Rob Malley, something of an expert on Iran. He is adamant that most of the information flow that goes to Trump about Iran comes from Netanyahu.
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Chapters
6 chapters
1
What is the main topic discussed in this episode?
0:00–1:41
2
What triggered the recent US-Israel attacks on Iran?
1:41–4:24
3
How has Trump's approach affected US-Iran relations?
4:24–9:56
4
What implications do the attacks have for the Middle East?
9:56–38:05
5
How are Gulf countries reacting to Iran's strikes?
38:05–52:34
6
What is the 'Wag the Dog' theory in relation to these events?
52:34–54:10
Speakers
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